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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst - PS3 to see 10% GAIN in 2010, Wii60 to DECLINE! (Wii 20%, 360 5%)

darthdevidem01 on 06 January 2010

PS3 to See 10% Gain in 2010 as Wii and Xbox 360 Decline, says Analyst

Posted January 6, 2010 by James Brightman

With 2010 now underway, analysts are looking ahead to make projections for the full calendar year. Wii sales in 2009 started to decline significantly in the second half, until the December holiday surge. Satoru Iwata believes the console has "recovered," but if you ask Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian, that holiday momentum won't last. He's forecasting a 20% decline in unit sales for the Wii this year. 

"One key takeaway from the holiday period is that there is ample demand for console hardware at reduced price points. Not only did Nintendo’s Wii benefit from a reacceleration in unit sales at lower price points ($149 in many stores), but PS3 sell-through is improving and the Xbox 360 is maintaining momentum. While not surprising that the Wii disproportionately sold more units in 4Q, as it remains a popular gift item, the recently reported 3+ million units sold in December exceeded our expectations. However, we remain cautious in modeling follow-on Wii sales in 2010," he said.

"For the year, we are currently modeling a 10% increase in PS3 unit sales, Xbox 360 unit sales down 5%, and a 20% decline in Nintendo Wii unit sales. There is upside potential to our estimates with further hardware price reductions. At this point, we expect the console-installed base to increase by roughly 25% to 70 million units, and above the 57 million console units installed of the last generation platforms at the end of 2005."

With an increasing interest in HDTVs and a solid software lineup for Sony's console, we'd expect the PS3 to have a great year in 2010. The Wii, on the other hand, may need to incorporate another price drop to $149 to further entice consumers.

NOTE: This seems to be for american market only

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http://www.industrygamers.com/news/ps3-to-see-10-gain-in-2010-as-wii-and-xbox-360-decline-says-analyst/

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Will analysts actually be correct for the first time ever this gen?

Will this scenario be replicated in other regions apart from America?

Will the wii instead blow past its 2009 figures?

Will PS Motion & NATAL skew these predictions massively?

Will dogs rule the world?

DISCUSS!



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

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Pristine20 on 06 January 2010

Lol, ps3 didn't even best 360 in NA after the price cut and slim. I didn't botherto read that but if the analyst really thinks ps3 will gain 10%, I'd like some of the stuff he's on.



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It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives"---Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler

thx1139 on 06 January 2010

So taking America numbers for 2009

Console Wii PS3 X360
America
10,084,464
4,700,467
5,419,409

The analys sees

Wii at 8,000,000
PS3 at 5,100,000
360 at 5,200,000

In America in 2010 without any price changes and we know that the 360 will have a price change.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

darthdevidem01 on 06 January 2010
Pristine20 said:
Lol, ps3 didn't even best 360 in NA after the price cut and slim. I didn't botherto read that but if the analyst really thinks ps3 will gain 10%, I'd like some of the stuff he's on.

by gain he means a YOY increase of 10%

a gain of 10% in sales over this year



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

psrock on 06 January 2010
Pristine20 said:
Lol, ps3 didn't even best 360 in NA after the price cut and slim. I didn't botherto read that but if the analyst really thinks ps3 will gain 10%, I'd like some of the stuff he's on.

What does beating the 360 has to do with gaining 10% IN 2010?



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11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
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darthdevidem01 on 06 January 2010
CGI-Quality said:
It's actually quite possible pristine. The PS3 will see some of it's biggest titles to release yet: FFXIII/GT5/GOW III. Those three alone can cause a significant increase and that's not even taking into account what Sony has set up for the Holiday. As far as Nintendo and Microsoft declining, I can't say. But a 10% increase for Sony looks feasible.

do you think PS Motion could help a bit atleast?

sometimes I think people are over hype the effect NATAL may have & seriously under-estimate PS Motions effect

it can go either way



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Carl on 06 January 2010
thx1139 said:

So taking America numbers for 2009

Console Wii PS3 X360
America
10,084,464
4,700,467
5,419,409

The analys sees

Wii at 8,000,000
PS3 at 5,100,000
360 at 4,900,000

In America in 2010 without any price changes and we know that the 360 will have a price change.

360 will be at ~5,200,000 if it falls 5%.



                            

forest-spirit on 06 January 2010

While I wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 increase, I doubt Wii or 360 will decline.
2010 will be a monster year for all consoles, not just the PS3.



Johann on 06 January 2010

More importantly, is that guy from Empire Craft add jerking that spear off or something? :-O

Seriously though, I don't see the Wii and 360 falling off by that much, but I can totally see the Ps3 rising 10%.



Quem disse que a boca é tua?

Qual é, Dadinho...?

Dadinho é o caralho! Meu nome agora é Zé Pequeno!

Khuutra on 06 January 2010

Is this Americas only?

Hrrmmmmm