First off, people should stop throwing around the words "conspiracy theory" so lightly without understanding what they mean. A conspiracy is a collusion to commit an illegal act. A conspiracy theory is a theory to explain illegal acts. Simple enough. What NPD is doing is not illegal, therefore there can be no such "conspiracy theory", only plain old theories. So please, stop using the term "conspiracy theory" to ridicule or discredit people's opinions. It only makes YOU look ridiculous.
With that said, here are some theories that have been floating in my head:
1) NPD is posturing against VGC., either for political or legal purposes, possibly both. By withholding information, thus resulting in further deviation, NPD can then launch a campaign to assault the credibility of VGC. The smear campaign would consist of articles and interviews in major gaming publications, as well as PR, astroturfers, and trolls in the forums. This has been underway at Neof*gs for quite some time.
2) NPD is losing credibility and/or business, or has incurred significant expenses in the attempt to upgrade their own tracking methods due to pressure from VGC. They intend to recoup this money or eliminate competition by filing a legal claim against VGC on some grounds. They may try to claim IP infringement, or unfair busniess practices due to informal leaks.
3) NPD is getting pressure from retailers (or vice versa) to stop sales data leaks. They may be devising a new system to expose and eliminate leaks.
Well, all 3 of these theories are intertwined into one theory, but that's how I see it. (I have an amazing track record by the way, as those who know me can attest to :)
No matter how anyone tries to spin it, this is a major victory and milestone for VGC. Atleast in the short term. The stakes are now higher and the pressure will be turned up a notch. Good job guys, but watch your back. The big dogs will be gunning for you now.
As Ghandi said, "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."