PS3 will overtake 360 sometime in 2011.

Xbox 3 will be released 2012, with the 360 being removed from the market... 3rd place.

Against probably my better judgment I'll throw out a prediction.
PS3 catches 360 holiday 2011 (if we're picking random weeks, 2nd week of December)
The software gap (also where gaming companies tend to make money) on the other hand I think will remain firmly on the side of the 360, maybe shrinking to 40m. I don't see the current attach rates changing immensely and the current gap of 100m+ is sizable in proportion to the change I'd expect to see in hardware. That said a change in the price of games due to digital distribution could drastically change what software numbers mean in the future.

well you didn't put a time frame so I'm guessing you mean at all; to which I'll say the PS3 will eventually pass 360. But that won't be till 2011 probably.

the ps3 will live longer in any occasion...

and i don't think sony will release a 600$ console a year later again so 2012 will probably the year for next consoles and thus becoming mainstream in 2013/14

imho

I think PS3 won't overtake 360 next year, Microsoft will start bleeding money again if it has to.

In the long run PS3 might overtake it, but it's going to be a moot battle. Neither is going to win by 10 million.

agree.

but all those efforts by ms i believe if the next gen starts at the same time or in some close range AND there isn't as much price difference again(which i dont think will be)

the ps4 will have an easy time...

as i think it would happen in this gen,see all that advertisment,timed exclusives by ms and the ps3 was selling ALWAYS more expencive than xbox and the gap is only 5+ mil (less than a year of sales)

its not a matter when if it overtakes it next year,its a war and ms has done so much for this battle and sony so many mistakes and the win might not go to ms of this battle,not war ;)

By the end of next year it might have shrunk by quite a bit, perhaps down to 2 million or so, which leaves a possibility for it to close the gap entirely by 2011's end.
We saw what impact FFXIII had last week in Japan, it moved tremendous amounts of hardware and will do the same in the other regions come next year.
GT 5 will be equally huge I think, especially in Eu/Others it will pull crazy numbers.
With Sony losing considerably less per console now (36 bucks or so?) they might also lower the price again, if either Sony or MS cuts the price, the other will follow suit I think.

As for Natal and the Sony Wands, I think everyone has unrealistic expectations for either, I don't see any reason at all why they'll be very popular or sell a whole lot so they won't make a difference in the big picture imo.

Regardless of the gap though, I'll be the happy owner of both HD consoles in january!

I doubt ps3 will pass 360 but the gap will be quite reduced

Before it passes the 360, it must get even.

MS won't let it happen/