By the end of next year it might have shrunk by quite a bit, perhaps down to 2 million or so, which leaves a possibility for it to close the gap entirely by 2011's end.
We saw what impact FFXIII had last week in Japan, it moved tremendous amounts of hardware and will do the same in the other regions come next year.
GT 5 will be equally huge I think, especially in Eu/Others it will pull crazy numbers.
With Sony losing considerably less per console now (36 bucks or so?) they might also lower the price again, if either Sony or MS cuts the price, the other will follow suit I think.
As for Natal and the Sony Wands, I think everyone has unrealistic expectations for either, I don't see any reason at all why they'll be very popular or sell a whole lot so they won't make a difference in the big picture imo.
Regardless of the gap though, I'll be the happy owner of both HD consoles in january! 
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