From what I've seen, most sequels sell the same or less than their predecessors, so I was expecting NSMBWii to be comparable to Super Mario Galaxy.  From that I've seen, there was more advertising for LBP.  NSMBWii is also introduces 4-player co-op play, for the first time in a Mario platformer, which I think makes it more like LBP than a previous Mario game (I am guessing a bit here since I have never played NSMBWii).  LBP also received higher review ratings.

Gears of War was a new IP and it sold very well.  

If there is some other "history lesson" I should know about, please care to educate me.

I have to agree that out-of-the-box, Mario games have had a higher quality of level design (again, I cannot speak for NSMBWii as I have not played it).  And you do not need to know how to use the level editor to enjoy other levels - you can play any level available through the "Community" menu item.

And I wasn't expecting them to sell equally, but NSMBWii is selling so well as if they're giving away real gold coins with each game.

But isn't NSMBWii's new feature co-op?  And no offense, but YouTube video's of 8-1 do not make it seem like the best level ever.  I remember many of the levels from NSMB DS being more fun than that.

New Super Mario Bros. Wii captures the most important values the Wii stands for. In short, if you buy a Wii are very likely to be interested in the game. It's also based on one of the best known characters in the world and it's a spiritual sequel to the second best selling games in the world. Everybody knows it, everybody can play it, everyone that has a Wii shares some of the values the game is based on.

Now look at Little Big Planet. It really doesn't go well with the rest of the Playstation library. Quirky and fun isn't really the image the PS3 has, is it? It's more closely associated with epic and techniqually superior games. There are no iconic characters, no recognition, no really mindblowing innovations. Just a critically acclaimed game that has a bunch of minor innovations that makes it feel fresh.

And really, almost 3 million is not at all bad for a PS3 game. Not at all bad. It's the 11th best seller on the PS3, according to VGChartz numbers. New Super Mario Bros. Wii is currently nr 10 on Wii, according to the same source, even though that's going to change next week...

Want a history lesson? ok.

Mario Galaxy's sales are actually "dissapointing" for a main line Mario platformer, yes i am serious.

well how on earth is 8M+ is dissapointing sales wise?

Because Mario games usually sell in the range of 15~ 20 Million units, so these sales of NewSMBWii is inline of what Mario games usually sell, like what it is little sister NewSMB on the DS managed to sell.

So why LBP didn't do as good as NewMarioBros.Wii?? well there are several reasons really:

It is a new Ip: meaning the consumers don't have a past title or another game similar to it on the system to relate it to.

No brand recognition: who made the game? is it the most famous game developers and publishers on the market? or new developers who have no fame to carry the game on? this is related to the game being recognised by the consumers too.

But Gears of War sold well and LBP did't even if it is a new IP! so what gives? well: I haven't played the game but is it a FPS by any chance? because i heard it is all the rage this gen.

It was advertised: alot of games were advertised too, some of them become a sucsess and some not, IMO LBP was decent sales wise (stop comparing it to Mario,because it will look like a HUGE bomba compared to it, only few games match it sales wise)

I guess I can live with this:)

So you agree, it's a lot to do with Mario?  Have you played both?

I somewhat disagree with the library comment.  The PS2 had a fair number of million+ selling platformers (Crash Bandicoot, Ratchet and Clank, Jak), but so far only Ratchet has appeared on the PS3 (PS1 games excluded).  But the PS3 does have it's share of quirky games (Buzz and EyePet come to mind).  I know that Sony has been trying hard to compete with Microsoft, and therefore the image of the PS3 has been leaning toward a hardcore gamer demographic, but to me it is still more of a jack-of-all-trades type console, with something for everyone. 

I think at this point that most people know who Sackboy is, and I don't think that NSMBWii has mindblowing innovations (just a great formula that works).  It is lacking the recognition, as it is a new IP.  I also have to throw in once piece of anecdotal evidence here.  My wife does not play video games.  However, when I showed her NSMB DS, she liked it, and she actually finished it.  When I showed her LBP, she also liked it and finished it.  What was even more surprising was that she would actually ask me to play LBP with her, when normally she'd rather watch TV.  I know that one sample point is far from being statistically significant, I think you have to agree that both games have a lot of appeal to gamers / casual gamers and even non-gamers.

Do you think that people that don't normally play platformers would pick up a copy of NSMBWii?

What my thought process was that there is a similar percentage of gamers on each console who like to play platformers (maybe this was my error in judgement).  If a platformer was released on both the PS3 and the Wii, I would expect the Wii game to sell twice as much, given that is has roughly twice the marketshare (63 million vs 30 million).  Using this logic, NSMBWii should sell 6 million.  You and I both know that it will sell far more than that (20 million maybe?).  Although Super Mario Galaxy is close to this formula, at about 8 million.

Looking deeper into the numbers, it looks like Japan just never caught on to LBP.  It has only sold 0.15 million, while NSMBWii is already at 2.0 million.

Uhm, I think you need a history lesson.  Super Mario 64 sold 11.89 million on N64.  Super Mario Sunshine sold 6.68 million on GC.  And like you mentioned, Super Mario Galaxy has sold 8.29 million on the Wii (so far).  Although NSMB DS has sold well, it was on a handheld console, and I don't know if a fair comparison can be made to home consoles.

It is a new IP, but I don't think that if Sony releases LBP2 it would sell 20 million copies just because it is a sequel. 

LBP has Sony as its publisher, which is probably one of the most well known publishers.  And I don't know how much pull a developer has, since Rare made Halo and Viva Pinata, and the two are not exactly comparable in sales.  Have you ever bought (or not bought) a game because of the publisher / developer?

Assassins Creed was another new IP that was not a FPS and did very well.

If I was to summarize everyone's responses, are these the differences between a 3 million seller and a 20 million seller for a platformer?

-Mario in the game
-No "floaty" jumps
-Sequel (not new IP)
-Known developer
-Console known for genre
-Innovations in gameplay
-Appeal to all regions

Agree?  Disagree?

New Super Mario Bros Wii will likely attain a 10-25% lifetime attach rate on Wii...

The question is whether Wii gets to 120m or a bit more.

By the end of March 2010 Wii will be at 70.5m on 20m units shipped in April 2009-March 2010. Even with steep and annual 30% drops Wii is getting past 100m easy. You get to 114m that way before sales drop under 1m/year worldwide.

Based on low hw and a low attach rate the worst case scenario is probably 114 * 0.15 for NSMB Wii - 17m.

With even 20% declines and a 20% attach rate the situation is completely different. You'd get to 144m that way - and a slightly higher 20% attach rate would put NSMB Wii at 29m worldwide.

125m * 1/6 Wii owners buying NSMB Wii seems about right lifetime.

I know I'll get flamed for this from the really dedicated fans, but when it comes down to it LBP just isn't that fun to play for most people. I think what the market most resonates with is that which caters to people's needs as consumers first, not what drives a medium forward.

I was a little mad 15 years ago when Tekken became more popular than Virtua Fighter, despite not having revolutionized the Fighting genre like VF did. But many years later I made peace with the fact Tekken was a lot more accessible, and to a lot of people, just more fun.

You can have it both ways, and it's been the case with a lot of games in history especially from Nintendo.. but LBP is more one than the other definitely IMO.