The Wii hasn't gotten any major RPGs as the DS even before DQ IX. Also, some games simply won't sell well. You pointed out FF Gaiden but no one wants old school FF. That's not a good example. With Tales the series, as Arius put it, it's like GH and its sales are basically limited to 200-300k regardless of platform.

DQ X won't be on the DS. DQ X is expected to be in late 2011? Sometime 2012 latest? The DS is going to be replaced by then, many people are predicting next year at least in Japan. A new Tales game from Team Destiny is going to be in 2011 too.

Are you forgetting that MH3 is on its way to 1 mil? DQ X should be able to do 3 mil+ on the Wii. You're also forgetting Iwata was there when DQ X was announced meaning there was a deal there. And possible sales not made up on the Wii in Japan will be made up in the West.

Well let's you and me cut through the bullshit here and get down to the hanky-spanky.

Monster Hunter 3 did very well for an RPG (or any third-party console game) in Japan this generatioin because Monster Hunter fans - the real ones - will follow it regardless of where it goes and assuming they can get past the whole "I have to subscribe to an online service!?" thing. Monster Hunter is enormous, but it's not the kind of game that will draw RPG-playing crowds for other RPGs. It doesn't appeal to the same userbase.

Tales isn't lik that either but Tales is further hampered by the fact that 1. Tales titles are relatively flooding the market and 2. Tales's appeal is at an all-time low. Players just don't want it that damn badly!

See, I would disagree about the Tales series being at an all time low. Vesperia sold >500,000 between both iterations which is stronger than virtually every other Tales game this generation (handhelds included). I agree the series is on the decline compared to the PS2, but I don't see mainline console Tales games being the kind that generate only 200-300k in sales, because we don't have that kind of history. Vesperia did indeed do weak on the 360, but the PS3 version showed that there is still a pretty strong userbase because Famitsu has it at 312k and going - if it had the same legs the 360 version had (which had the best legs of any console Tales this decade), it may continue to sell very well.

Wii does not have an RPG-buying crowd right now because it does not have the library that draws RPG buyers. The DS and (to a much lesser extent, minding the nature of Monster Hunter) the PSP do, but none of the consoles do right now.

See, I would disagree about the RPG buying crowd not having a base anywhere. It certainly does on the PS3 given the strong sales of Vesperia, WKC, Valkyria, and Demon Souls. I would certainly agree its not at the PS2-level, but it certainly attracts casual buyers given the sales history of the aforementioned titles.

The reason people bring up Dragon Quest as a game changer is because Dragon Quest is at least thought to be the game that draws all RPG players in Japan. It's not in tthe same class in Monster Hunter, and it's not even on the same planet as Tales. Granted, though, that the Wii is a unique scenario, because Dragon Quest traditionally comes to consoles that have strong RPG-playing bases already, either because developers flock to that console to anticipate the RPG players or because RPG players follow Dragon Quest. One of those is true, but if it's the former then Dragon Quest X very much will not help other RPGs.

I still expect Dragon Quest X to smash every other console RPG in Japan this gen in terms of sales, because Dragon Quest players will buy Dragon Quest. The only question is if they'll buy anything else.

I certainly agree with this analysis: We cannot guarentee if a title like DQX will help the actual RPG user base on the Wii. Because of that reason (which we both agree on), we must judge each title based on performance metrics of franchise titles, market comparables, and console comparables. Because of those 3 things, I just feel strongly that Tales did worse than expected, regardless of justification. I do not doubt for a second DQX will be a smash hit on the Wii, but at the same time, I believe it would of been such regardless of system - DS, PSP, PS3, X360.

Tales games ARE locked at 200k-300k. ToV is actually at 312k - VGC is overtracking it by a bit.