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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Iwata's Bold Prediction thread

kingofwale on 07 December 2009

I think it depends on the release of the next Wiifit ++.

if it comes out in a yearly basis, there's no way it will reach 10 million



Soriku (Feb 10/08): In 5 years the PS3/360 will be dead.

KH3 bet: "If KH3 comes to Wii exclusive, I will take a 1 month of sig/avatar by otheres open a thread apologize and praise you guys' brilliance." http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=50&id=18379
Original cast: Badonkadonkhr, sc94597 allaboutthegames885, kingofwale, Soriku, ctk495, skeezer, RDBRaptor, Mirson,

Episode 1: OOPSY!
selnor: Too Human I even expect 3-4 mill entire life and 500,000 first day. GoW2 ( expect 7 - 9 million entire life and over 2 mill first day), Fable 2 (expect 5-6 million entire life and 1.5 mill fist day) BK3 (expect 4 - 5 mill sales entire life and 1 mill first day).. Tales/IU/TLR should get to 2 or 3 million! post id: 868878
Episode 2:
Letsdance: FFXIII (PS3+360) first week in NA = 286K
According to pre-order rate in week 13 (post id: 2902544)
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noname2200 on 07 December 2009
metalmonstar said:


Wiifit+ is just a slower burner than the other ones. Sport resort has several month lead and is still doing really well in others. I believe resort had stronger legs in Japan as well. Mario on the other hand should be expected to have much higher opening. The holiday is being very kind to it as well.

 

So yes Wiifit will probably be last to ten million. I don't know if Mario and Wiifit+ will make it before March though.

I have no problems envisioning NSMBWii making it: to be honest, that's the one I've always been the most confident about, even if it was the last to launch. I didn't think Fit+ would have any problems either though, especially at that price.



hsrob on 08 December 2009

This is the quote I found on several sources regarding this claim and it doesn't specify shipped or sold. It was at an investor Q+A though so I'm guessing he meant shipped.

"The key player of this holiday season will be Nintendo as expected." So I believe each of these three software titles have the potential to surpass 10 million copies worldwide in the whole fiscal year."



mortono on 08 December 2009

Wii Sports Resort: ~9m by the end of 2009, FY sales will be well above 10m!

New Super Mario Bros Wii: ~7m by the end of 2009, It would need an average of ~250k weekly sales after the holidays to get to 10m, certainly within reach!

Wii Fit Plus: ~6m by the end of 2009, It would need an average of ~350k weekly sales after the holidays to get to 10m, seems a little steep but it still could get there.



amacfantasy on 08 December 2009

well first of all a little more than 35 have sold 10 mil or more as far a single platform games, then you got the digital age or digital distribution to factor in for some games, but then you most important got multiplatform games that really you should add together which would account for alot more.



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saicho on 08 December 2009

^
I'm wondering which games with digital distribution have passed 10 million but not being counted.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

noname2200 on 08 December 2009
saicho said:
^
I'm wondering which games with digital distribution have passed 10 million but not being counted.

Looking at the list, Mario Kart 64 is probably the first one.



Pineapple on 08 December 2009

Will Wii Fit Plus make it? Well, it could easily be compared to Wii Fit from last year.

Wii Fit + looks to be selling slightly more than Wii Fit did in the equivalent time-period last year, in Americas. From here till the Week ending 3rd January, Wii Fit sold 1.1 million, Wii Fit + thus looks at 1.1-1.4 million, or so.

Roughly the same seems to be the case in Others, were Wii Fit + has sold pretty much 250K each week for the last 5 weeks. That's more than Wii Fit did, as it ranged from 150-210K in that period. Wii Fit sold nearly 1.3 million here, so 1.3-1.6 million seems a likely number for Wii Fit Plus.

Wii Fit Plus should also rack in 300-400K in Japan.

 

That leads to 2.7-3.4 million expected for the next month. That puts Wii Fit's total at 6.3-7 million.

Thus, Wii Fit Plus needs 3-3.7 million.

If we (yet again) go look at Wii Fit, it sold 4.1 million in Q1 2009. Keep in mind that at this time, Wii Fit had been out for over 6 months.

Wii Fit Plus looks to have a stronger holiday, and it's also a newer game than Wii Fit was. It should manage to sell 3.5 million +.

 

All in all, I think Wii Fit + will sell 10 million by the end of Q1 2010, whereas Iwata was most likely talking shipped.



Asriel on 08 December 2009

I think Iwata will be right. These 3 titles from Nintendo will be selling for months to come.



Zucas on 08 December 2009

By the end of March 2010 shipment wise, it depends how many copies of NSMB Wii and Wii Fit Plus they can get out there. WSR will make it in sales no doubt by the end of the year. Both Mario and Wii Fit Plus will be about 5-6 million in sales by the end of the year with potentially in the 6-7 million range depending on their selling power over the next couple of weeks.

I'm not so sure if this will happen but all 3 will easily hit 10 million in shipments eventually.