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Forums - Sales - Gran Turismo 5, the first 20 million selling GT... maybe.

Hus on 17 November 2009
Vetteman94 said:

GT4 was not the first full fledged GT title on the PS2 like GT5 will be on the PS3

PS2 starting userbases for GT3 and GT4 were 11M and 74M respectively.  Thats the only numbers you can truely use since we dont know what the final userbase for the PS3 will be

True,  but it could be higher depending on the holiday season and when it releases in EU and NA since it is only confirmed to release in Japan in March 2010.  

It would only be 33% more than the comparable GT title from the PS2 with 300% of the starting userbase

you said it better then i could dude, thank you. 



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Chairman-Mao on 17 November 2009

I actually read your post unlike most people probably and you have some decent reasoning.

I still think 20m is very, very optimistic though. Even GTA San Andreas didn't sell 20 million (and yeah I'm gonna mention userbase) and the PS2 userbase was huge.

Here's my prediction (more like possibilities)

20m+ Sales = 0.5% chance

15m+ Sales = 7% chance

12m+ Sales = 37% chance

10m+ Sales = 51% chance

8m+ Sales = 75% chance

5m+ Sales = 100% chance



nordlead on 17 November 2009
Hus said:
Barozi said:

The generation will be over before the PS3 even has the userbase to do this.
Attach rate says no.

care to be more specific as in what would the attach rate have to be in your opinion and on how big a userbase. 

Anything over 40% attach rate is huge. If we look at some of the top sellers the highest attach rates are

Mario Kart Wii - ~32% (first non-bundled Wii title)
Halo 3 - ~31%
GTA IV (PS3) - ~23%

So, assuming GT5 can actually acheive 40% attach rate you are looking at a minimum of 50m PS3 units sold. However, I don't expect it to come close to 40% attach rate when all is said and done and at best closer to 30%, so the PS3 would need to sell ~66m units.




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JWS on 17 November 2009

20 million is a bit much with the current userbase of the ps3. There is alot of great games releasing the same time as gt and i think it will have an effect on it's sales. I don't see it going over 5 million lifetime, unless it's bundled then maybe 6.5 million.



toastboy44562 on 17 November 2009

makes perfect sense, it also means GTA5 will sell 30 million on ps3 alone...



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Hus on 17 November 2009
nordlead said:
Hus said:
Barozi said:

The generation will be over before the PS3 even has the userbase to do this.
Attach rate says no.

care to be more specific as in what would the attach rate have to be in your opinion and on how big a userbase. 

Anything over 40% attach rate is huge. If we look at some of the top sellers the highest attach rates are

Mario Kart Wii - ~32% (first non-bundled Wii title)
Halo 3 - ~31%
GTA IV (PS3) - ~23%

So, assuming GT5 can actually acheive 40% attach rate you are looking at a minimum of 50m PS3 units sold. However, I don't expect it to come close to 40% attach rate when all is said and done and at best closer to 30%, so the PS3 would need to sell ~66m units.

ohh now that i like.  Some real info, intelligent logic. 

 

GT6 will take minimun atleast 2 years, probably 3.  PS3 should sale more then 10m a year, your 66m being likely if not higher.



GranTurismoHelperMax on 17 November 2009

Crazy perdition there. Seeing as the top selling GT is around 17mil and the ps2 sold 120mil units, the ps3 will only be @ around 30-40 mil when gt5 launches, but it it were gt5 + gt6, then sure, 20mil will be quite easily to obtain.



Above I'm a proud Gran Turismo fan, not a Sony fanboy, and now a proud 360 owner, but sharing xbox live accts ATM

End of 2009 Predictions (made Jan 1, 2009): My predictions were pretty accurate, the 360 was over and the Wii was just under.

Wii: 65 mil (yea I'm crazy) 360: 35 mil (its getting there) PS3: 30 mil (the slim better do well)

End of 2010 Predictions (made Jan 7, 2010):

Wii: 81 mil  360: 47 mil PS3: 45 mil


Hus on 17 November 2009
GranTurismoHelperMax said:
Crazy perdition there. Seeing as the top selling GT is around 17mil and the ps2 sold 120mil units, the ps3 will only be @ around 30-40 mil when gt5 launches, but it it were gt5 + gt6, then sure, 20mil will be quite easily to obtain.

What the hell is so god damn hard to understand.

GT3 NEVER EVER got to sale on a 120m userbase.

 

 



Barozi on 17 November 2009
nordlead said:
Hus said:
Barozi said:

The generation will be over before the PS3 even has the userbase to do this.
Attach rate says no.

care to be more specific as in what would the attach rate have to be in your opinion and on how big a userbase. 

Anything over 40% attach rate is huge. If we look at some of the top sellers the highest attach rates are

Mario Kart Wii - ~32% (first non-bundled Wii title)
Halo 3 - ~31%
GTA IV (PS3) - ~23%

So, assuming GT5 can actually acheive 40% attach rate you are looking at a minimum of 50m PS3 units sold. However, I don't expect it to come close to 40% attach rate when all is said and done and at best closer to 30%, so the PS3 would need to sell ~66m units.

yep I guesstimated about 70m PS3 units.

The only game that could sustain its legs is Mario Kart Wii. Halo 3 and GTA IV will go down by the time. I also expect the same for GT5.



perpride on 17 November 2009

Everyone needs to stop tripping out on Modern Warfare. Not every big HD game is suddenly going to do wonders.

I would be EXTREMELY surprised if Gran Turismo 5 manages to do 10-12 million, never mind 20 million. If all the reasons the original poster put up end up happening, then maybe it will be able to hit 10 mill.