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I actually read your post unlike most people probably and you have some decent reasoning.

I still think 20m is very, very optimistic though. Even GTA San Andreas didn't sell 20 million (and yeah I'm gonna mention userbase) and the PS2 userbase was huge.

Here's my prediction (more like possibilities)

20m+ Sales = 0.5% chance

15m+ Sales = 7% chance

12m+ Sales = 37% chance

10m+ Sales = 51% chance

8m+ Sales = 75% chance

5m+ Sales = 100% chance