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Forums - Sales - Gran Turismo 5, the first 20 million selling GT... maybe.

iWarMachine on 17 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
20M is actually 33% from 60M, not 85%.
2009 - 30M+
2010 - 40M+ and 10M GT5
2011 - 50M+ and 5M GT5
2012 - 60M+ and 2M GT5

I expect GT6 to come only somewhere in 2012.

PS3 at 60 million?

Seriously?

Right now its at 26 million, I think 60 million is out of the realm of possibility

I just want to ask. Why do you think this?

PS3 sales have increased with every year it has been available. Next year is its biggest and best software lineup. Sales are likely to increase AGAIN.

60 million is very possible by the end of its lifetime.

The increasing sales aren't going to continue forever you know, not to mention next year it'll face much harder price competition from the 360, and the fact is many of its big software titles are shared with the 360, its unlikely that it will be able to more than double its console base at this point

Sony will keep it around for 10 years. It's been out for 3. And sales will VERY likely continue to increase next year with Gran Turismo 5... God of War 3... Final Fantasy 13... Agent... Motion Controller... Wii Ports/Steals... Etc. And we dont even know what Sony have planned for Q3/Q4.

The fact is... I have proof of PS3 sales increasing every year. PS3 has some very high quality and high selling potential software. And Sony say they will use the 10 year plan for it. AND they still have the room for a lot more pricecuts...

Id say 60 Million is pretty much guarenteed.

Sony can keep it around for a century, doesn't mean people will buy it, its the consumer that decides how long a product remains on the market, not the company. You have proof of PS3 sales increasing, so what, that's what happens, sales increase, then they peak and then they decline. No hey don't have as much room for price cuts as you think, because they are losing money on the PS3 hardware at the moment. They have already hinted they don't want to price cut next year

wait, i was looking to your sign and i saw this...Lifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015


so....do you think that wii will be supported until fall 2015 and will surpass more than 200M CONSOLES (not even counting psp)!?

damn,no offense but you must hate the playstation or you're just a nintendo fanboy...=/

 

truth is ps3 will surpass 60M lifetime easily, just like any other playstation console.

talking about the thread subject...i can't see it happening, i highly doubt it.....14M max.

 

a good point for OP to rise the GT sales it's that the ps3 is a console with no piracy and most of the people owning a ps3 by now, knows what GT is, maybe because of that and a heavily advertised launch it could sell 2M first week....



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ZorroX on 17 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
20M is actually 33% from 60M, not 85%.
2009 - 30M+
2010 - 40M+ and 10M GT5
2011 - 50M+ and 5M GT5
2012 - 60M+ and 2M GT5

I expect GT6 to come only somewhere in 2012.


  PS3 at 60 million?

 

Seriously?

 

Right now its at 26 million, I think 60 million is out of the realm of possibility

PS3 will be 30M+ by the end of 2009. I even can bet with you on this.

Now, those 10M per year is a worst case scenario. PS3 just reached 299$ price. It yet to have 249$ and 199$. And every GT fan will buy 199$ PS3 bundled with GT5. I say, every.

How much you expect PS3 to do by the end of 2012? Less than 60M? This is a joke, right? You expect PS3 sales to decline, after pricecut? After FFXIII, GT5 and AGENT release?

Because??

because sales will decline, if not next year then the year after, because it'll have greater price pressures from 360, because it's successor will be announced, many reasons why it won't double its console base at this point

PSP sales won`t stop at 60M either.

PS3 is selling around 250k+ every week since pricecut and slim release. And during October that was not an Christmas effect, but new price and slim model effect. And that effect will continue after Christmas.

Many people were saying, that after slim PS3 sales will go below 200k or even 150k. But it didn`t. What price pressure? x360 elite won`t be at 199$ by the end of 2010, and 50$ difference is too small, 399$ vs 349$ PS3 proved that. Also, when console reach mass market price, the price difference doesn`t matter that much.

Successor? Just not before 2012.

Even at 250K sales rate, it would take over 2 and a half years to get to 60 million, its not going to sell at 250K for that long, also you don't know how much MS will price cut, they are making profit, so they can afford it, Sony can't.

GC cost 99$, did that help to beat PS2? There won`t be anymore price difference between main x360 and PS3 model more, than 50$.

If x360 will cost 249$, Sony won`t cut PS3 price, if 199$, then ps3 will cost 249$. Also, since March, Sony will be making PROFIT on PS3 HW.

In next 2.5 years there will be 249$ and 199$ price. There will be GT5, FFXIII and AGENT + other games. PS3 momentum just will continue. And PS3 has 3 years to top 60M. PS3 sales won`t have time to decline with incoming games, pricecuts and other momentum.



hsrob on 17 November 2009

I'm not saying it won't happen but for the PS3 to end up at 70 million is far from a foregone conclusion and that's the kind of userbase that is required for it to have ANY chance of getting anywhere near 20m. For it to continue to do similar number as it has this year for 3-4 more years in the face of further price drops from the competition, the inevitable announcement of next gen consoles, shifting developer support etc...I'm just not sure I can see it happening.

Two things are fairly likely though, the PS3 won't have a sales tail like the PS2 and won't see ongoing developer support towards the end of its life anything like the PS2 did. I suspect alot of the interim game development (i.e. development between this generation and the next) will go to the Wii just because the large userbase and lower development costs will allow developers to offset the increased risk and cost (at least somewhat) associated with developing on the new consoles. I also feel the Wii will hang around and be successful longer than the other two and has a usebase that is less likely to jump ship at first sight of a new console.

Now IF the PS3 does make it to 70million, which it possibly could depending on how long and how the rest of this gen plays out, GT5 might, possibly, maybe get to 20 million but if would necessitate more than a few best case scenarios to play out.



Carl on 17 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
20M is actually 33% from 60M, not 85%.
2009 - 30M+
2010 - 40M+ and 10M GT5
2011 - 50M+ and 5M GT5
2012 - 60M+ and 2M GT5

I expect GT6 to come only somewhere in 2012.

PS3 at 60 million?

Seriously?

Right now its at 26 million, I think 60 million is out of the realm of possibility

I just want to ask. Why do you think this?

PS3 sales have increased with every year it has been available. Next year is its biggest and best software lineup. Sales are likely to increase AGAIN.

60 million is very possible by the end of its lifetime.

The increasing sales aren't going to continue forever you know, not to mention next year it'll face much harder price competition from the 360, and the fact is many of its big software titles are shared with the 360, its unlikely that it will be able to more than double its console base at this point

Sony will keep it around for 10 years. It's been out for 3. And sales will VERY likely continue to increase next year with Gran Turismo 5... God of War 3... Final Fantasy 13... Agent... Motion Controller... Wii Ports/Steals... Etc. And we dont even know what Sony have planned for Q3/Q4.

The fact is... I have proof of PS3 sales increasing every year. PS3 has some very high quality and high selling potential software. And Sony say they will use the 10 year plan for it. AND they still have the room for a lot more pricecuts...

Id say 60 Million is pretty much guarenteed.

Sony can keep it around for a century, doesn't mean people will buy it, its the consumer that decides how long a product remains on the market, not the company. You have proof of PS3 sales increasing, so what, that's what happens, sales increase, then they peak and then they decline. No hey don't have as much room for price cuts as you think, because they are losing money on the PS3 hardware at the moment. They have already hinted they don't want to price cut next year

Like i said, they want to keep it on the market for 10 years... And selling 250k a week at $300 seems like the public want it too. You still think they will be losing money on a $300 PS3 in late 2010/ early 11? You think they wont be able to afford a $50 pricecut in late 2010/ early 11?

All my time on this site i have seen you underestimate PS3 and make some rather crazy predictions. This time is no different.



                            

iWarMachine on 17 November 2009
Carl2291 said:

Like i said, they want to keep it on the market for 10 years... And selling 250k a week at $300 seems like the public want it too. You still think they will be losing money on a $300 PS3 in late 2010/ early 11? You think they wont be able to afford a $50 pricecut in late 2010/ early 11?

All my time on this site i have seen you underestimate PS3 and make some rather crazy predictions. This time is no different.

LOOK AT HIS SIG FOR GODSAKE! IT'S MADNESSZZZZZ



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Avinash_Tyagi on 17 November 2009
ZorroX said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
20M is actually 33% from 60M, not 85%.
2009 - 30M+
2010 - 40M+ and 10M GT5
2011 - 50M+ and 5M GT5
2012 - 60M+ and 2M GT5

I expect GT6 to come only somewhere in 2012.


  PS3 at 60 million?

 

Seriously?

 

Right now its at 26 million, I think 60 million is out of the realm of possibility

PS3 will be 30M+ by the end of 2009. I even can bet with you on this.

Now, those 10M per year is a worst case scenario. PS3 just reached 299$ price. It yet to have 249$ and 199$. And every GT fan will buy 199$ PS3 bundled with GT5. I say, every.

How much you expect PS3 to do by the end of 2012? Less than 60M? This is a joke, right? You expect PS3 sales to decline, after pricecut? After FFXIII, GT5 and AGENT release?

Because??

because sales will decline, if not next year then the year after, because it'll have greater price pressures from 360, because it's successor will be announced, many reasons why it won't double its console base at this point

PSP sales won`t stop at 60M either.

PS3 is selling around 250k+ every week since pricecut and slim release. And during October that was not an Christmas effect, but new price and slim model effect. And that effect will continue after Christmas.

Many people were saying, that after slim PS3 sales will go below 200k or even 150k. But it didn`t. What price pressure? x360 elite won`t be at 199$ by the end of 2010, and 50$ difference is too small, 399$ vs 349$ PS3 proved that. Also, when console reach mass market price, the price difference doesn`t matter that much.

Successor? Just not before 2012.

Even at 250K sales rate, it would take over 2 and a half years to get to 60 million, its not going to sell at 250K for that long, also you don't know how much MS will price cut, they are making profit, so they can afford it, Sony can't.

GC cost 99$, did that help to beat PS2? There won`t be anymore price difference between main x360 and PS3 model more, than 50$.

If x360 will cost 249$, Sony won`t cut PS3 price, if 199$, then ps3 will cost 249$. Also, since March, Sony will be making PROFIT on PS3 HW.

In next 2.5 years there will be 249$ and 199$ price. There will be GT5, FFXIII and AGENT + other games. PS3 momentum just will continue. And PS3 has 3 years to top 60M. PS3 sales won`t have time to decline with incoming games, pricecuts and other momentum.

PS2 had the games last gen, it was the generation leader, and led in sales throughout the gen.  But the PS3 and 360 are very close in libraries, so price will make a bigger different there.

 

They'll only be making a profit if they don't price cut, a cut and they are back in the red, MS knows this, so they can cut just to make Sony lose even more money.

 

FF13 is on 360 as well, part of my point, the two consoles have such similar libraries, that price will be a big decider in sales



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

yo_john117 on 17 November 2009

No.  20 million is virtually impossible, even thinking it could sell 15 million is just ridiculous.  7-8 million is what it most likely would sell imo.



psrock on 17 November 2009

@Avinash

Tell me one prediction about the PS3 you've been right about?



 Next Gen 

11/20/09 04:25 makingmusic476 Warning Other (Your avatar is borderline NSFW. Please keep it for as long as possible.)
iWarMachine on 17 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:

PS2 had the games last gen, it was the generation leader, and led in sales throughout the gen.  But the PS3 and 360 are very close in libraries, so price will make a bigger different there.

 

They'll only be making a profit if they don't price cut, a cut and they are back in the red, MS knows this, so they can cut just to make Sony lose even more money.

 

FF13 is on 360 as well, part of my point, the two consoles have such similar libraries, that price will be a big decider in sales

FF always sell the most in japan where the ps3 has the exclusivity.



I'm Back! - Proud owner of the best doomed handheld of all time!

Avinash_Tyagi on 17 November 2009
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
ZorroX said:
20M is actually 33% from 60M, not 85%.
2009 - 30M+
2010 - 40M+ and 10M GT5
2011 - 50M+ and 5M GT5
2012 - 60M+ and 2M GT5

I expect GT6 to come only somewhere in 2012.

PS3 at 60 million?

Seriously?

Right now its at 26 million, I think 60 million is out of the realm of possibility

I just want to ask. Why do you think this?

PS3 sales have increased with every year it has been available. Next year is its biggest and best software lineup. Sales are likely to increase AGAIN.

60 million is very possible by the end of its lifetime.

The increasing sales aren't going to continue forever you know, not to mention next year it'll face much harder price competition from the 360, and the fact is many of its big software titles are shared with the 360, its unlikely that it will be able to more than double its console base at this point

Sony will keep it around for 10 years. It's been out for 3. And sales will VERY likely continue to increase next year with Gran Turismo 5... God of War 3... Final Fantasy 13... Agent... Motion Controller... Wii Ports/Steals... Etc. And we dont even know what Sony have planned for Q3/Q4.

The fact is... I have proof of PS3 sales increasing every year. PS3 has some very high quality and high selling potential software. And Sony say they will use the 10 year plan for it. AND they still have the room for a lot more pricecuts...

Id say 60 Million is pretty much guarenteed.

Sony can keep it around for a century, doesn't mean people will buy it, its the consumer that decides how long a product remains on the market, not the company. You have proof of PS3 sales increasing, so what, that's what happens, sales increase, then they peak and then they decline. No hey don't have as much room for price cuts as you think, because they are losing money on the PS3 hardware at the moment. They have already hinted they don't want to price cut next year

Like i said, they want to keep it on the market for 10 years... And selling 250k a week at $300 seems like the public want it too. You still think they will be losing money on a $300 PS3 in late 2010/ early 11? You think they wont be able to afford a $50 pricecut in late 2010/ early 11?

All my time on this site i have seen you underestimate PS3 and make some rather crazy predictions. This time is no different.

250K for a couple of months is nice, but it doesn't say anything about the long term Carl.  Its been selling like this since the price cut, but will it still sell like this next year, remains to be seen.

You really think that MS won't cut more than $50 dollars off 360 by early 2011?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)