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Forums - Sales - Can we please re-define the term FLOP

Cypher1980 on 15 November 2009
Munkeh111 said:
Um, LBP cost $5m to make, the developers said so in an interview.... and $12 per game is a joke, though many of LBPs sales were sold at a very low price in the UK

If it was genuinely produced for just 5 mil US then its an out and out success.

Are you sure about the figure ?

Given it costs 5 US to publish a Blu Ray Disc and they have produced min 2.5 million copies that would put game publishing costs alone at 12.5 mil



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Kantor on 15 November 2009
Cypher1980 said:
Kantor said:
Cypher1980 said:
Kantor said:
Cypher1980 said:
Any game that fails to cover development costs including Upfront investment by console manufacturers (to cover launch titles) is a FLOP (eg LAIR)

Any game that meets dev costs but only achieves a 20 percent return on investment as profit can be called a QUALIFIED FLOP (eg LBP)

Any game that meets dev costs but achieves less than a 40 percent return on investment as profit can be called a QUALIFIED SUCCESS (eg DEAD SPACE)

As above but 40 - 100 percent profit is called a SUCCESS (eg UNCHARTED)

As above but over 100 percent profit is called a HIT (eg MGS4)

As above but over 200 percent profit is called an OUT and OUT HIT (eg GTA IV, HALO 3)

LBP made a 20% profit with 2.5 million sales?

With 40 people on the dev team?

I reckon its about right.

2.5 mill sales RRP 60 US

Price to POS 30-35 US

Advertising, Production and Packaging recall and repress, Blu Ray and Sony royalties minus Business Tax on profit

would equate to approx 12 US per game net profit.

12 x 2.5mil = 30 mil take home

I doubt that it cost less than 24 mil to develop. Even with only 40 in the team it was a long time being developed and there are greater overheads than just the staff payroll to factor in.

If Uncharted didn't cost $24 million, I doubt that LBP did. In fact, since Uncharted and LBP cost the same amount, are you saying that Uncharted cost less to develop than LBP?

Im sorry but I dont understand the latter half of your last paragraph so cannot comment.

I'd just like to address this point, since the rest is all speculation by both of us.

You say Uncharted made 40-100% profit, and LBP made 20%. However, they've sold the same amount. Thus, you're saying that Uncharted was cheaper to make than LBP.



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Cypher1980 on 15 November 2009
Kantor said:
Cypher1980 said:
Kantor said:
Cypher1980 said:
Kantor said:
Cypher1980 said:
Any game that fails to cover development costs including Upfront investment by console manufacturers (to cover launch titles) is a FLOP (eg LAIR)

Any game that meets dev costs but only achieves a 20 percent return on investment as profit can be called a QUALIFIED FLOP (eg LBP)

Any game that meets dev costs but achieves less than a 40 percent return on investment as profit can be called a QUALIFIED SUCCESS (eg DEAD SPACE)

As above but 40 - 100 percent profit is called a SUCCESS (eg UNCHARTED)

As above but over 100 percent profit is called a HIT (eg MGS4)

As above but over 200 percent profit is called an OUT and OUT HIT (eg GTA IV, HALO 3)

LBP made a 20% profit with 2.5 million sales?

With 40 people on the dev team?

I reckon its about right.

2.5 mill sales RRP 60 US

Price to POS 30-35 US

Advertising, Production and Packaging recall and repress, Blu Ray and Sony royalties minus Business Tax on profit

would equate to approx 12 US per game net profit.

12 x 2.5mil = 30 mil take home

I doubt that it cost less than 24 mil to develop. Even with only 40 in the team it was a long time being developed and there are greater overheads than just the staff payroll to factor in.

If Uncharted didn't cost $24 million, I doubt that LBP did. In fact, since Uncharted and LBP cost the same amount, are you saying that Uncharted cost less to develop than LBP?

Im sorry but I dont understand the latter half of your last paragraph so cannot comment.

I'd just like to address this point, since the rest is all speculation by both of us.

You say Uncharted made 40-100% profit, and LBP made 20%. However, they've sold the same amount. Thus, you're saying that Uncharted was cheaper to make than LBP.

Oh right... Yeah fair enough thats a maths failure on my behalf. Bit eager on the calc and hit a 3 not a 2 for uncharted.



Cypher1980 on 15 November 2009

Its interesting point by Kantor that would push Uncharted into QUALIFIED FLOP status.

It seems a little unfair given its technical brilliance and the fact it launched when PS3 systems were a lot thiner on the ground.

However I guess when we say FLOP we mean commercially. Dont we ?



Cypher1980 on 15 November 2009

Think DEAD SPACE Should be moved to QF as well.

God you can see why so many Devs go bust.



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Munkeh111 on 15 November 2009
Cypher1980 said:
Munkeh111 said:
Um, LBP cost $5m to make, the developers said so in an interview.... and $12 per game is a joke, though many of LBPs sales were sold at a very low price in the UK

If it was genuinely produced for just 5 mil US then its an out and out success.

Are you sure about the figure ?

Given it costs 5 US to publish a Blu Ray Disc and they have produced min 2.5 million copies that would put game publishing costs alone at 12.5 mil

100%, it was in OPM UK a while back, but I can't be bothered to find it



Kenryoku_Maxis on 15 November 2009
Tankman said:
A flop should be called a flop if the developers didn't make a profit. If they are in the red after sales...it should be a flop. Same goes for anyone else involved in the game.

This.  But may I add, it should also be deemed a flop is the developers were looking for the game to reach a certain sales goal.  So like, if a DS or Wii game cost say 2 Mil to make and they sold 100,000 copies, but wanted to sell 500,000, that's a flop.



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twesterm on 15 November 2009
killuminiti said:

games like forza3,killzone2, and even lbp(not anymore) are seen as flops. when i fact they are selling/sold millions of units, these games have sold the more units than games like mass effect infamous and other games that are seen as sucess, i know they are but we can't call them secess abut call games like forza and killzone flops.

right now the definition of flop is: sell short of expectation. but just because a games sells less than expectation doesn't mean its a flop, can we find a new definiton of flop please. i am sick of games like killzone and F3 begin called FLOPS!

You have the definition of flop wrong, a game that flops is a game that didn't make money.  It's not a hard concept.

-edit-

And threads like this always make me laugh because it really shows just how insecure people are about some of the games they like.  What does it really matter if some random person on a forum calls Killzone 2 a flop?  Does that somehow affect your enjoyment of the game?

It's just as silly as someone getting angry over a rating of 85 and 88.



 

Azelover on 15 November 2009

One of the bigger expenses on a major release is marketing actually, not even the game's development cost. Sometimes the advertising is equal or greater depending on the level of importance.

That's why expectations matter, beyond just the cost of developing the game. Expectation is the real metric they use to determine if a game has succeeded or not, it may have been profitable but not profitable enough. I can tell you for sure that LBP is not a success at all, they're trying to keep it going and supporting it, but it didn't do what it was meant to do yet.

Maybe if they develop the game around gameplay next time it will be more successful.



Grimes on 15 November 2009

Another thing to consider is discounting. Some games like Mario Kart sell close to full price for all their sales. Other games like LBP quickly fall in price. A sale at $50 for a $50 game two years after release is much more valuable than a sale at $20 for at $60 game 3 months after release.

Not all sales are created equal.



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