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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict Sales for FFXIII, NSMBWii, ToG and SW3 in Japan

PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
Those are crazy high numbers you guys are predicting for FFXIII.

So you're expecting more like 1.5-1.9 LTD?

I don't know, it just seems high... Has any other PS3 game even broken the million barrier in Japan yet?

Nop

Top selling ps3 games in japan

  1. MGS4 - 0.71m
  2. GT5 Prologue  - 0.57m
  3. Minna no Golf 5 - 0.51m
  4. RE5 - 0.50m

 

See, that's exactly what I mean. And I doubt FFXIII will be half as good of a game as MGS4. But then again, quality doesn't always (if ever) equal sales.

I still think 1.5M is ridiculously high.



           

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Well...its early but preorder figures for all four games are fairly good. So I'll go:

Samurai Warriors 3 Wii (including bundles) FW: 80,000 to 120,000 looks realistic...call it ~100K...LTD 250k?

Tales of Graces Wii FW - 120,000 to 160,000 looks realistic...  ~140K... LTD 220k

New Super Mario Brothers Wii FW - 500,000 to 750,000 looks realistic... 3.5m-4.5m LTD  (DS version will hit 6m in Japan)

Final Fantasy XIII FW - 850,000 to 1,150,000 looks realistic... 1.25m to 1.65m LTD

 

 

 



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

ultima said:
PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
Those are crazy high numbers you guys are predicting for FFXIII.

So you're expecting more like 1.5-1.9 LTD?

I don't know, it just seems high... Has any other PS3 game even broken the million barrier in Japan yet?

Nop

Top selling ps3 games in japan

  1. MGS4 - 0.71m
  2. GT5 Prologue  - 0.57m
  3. Minna no Golf 5 - 0.51m
  4. RE5 - 0.50m

 

See, that's exactly what I mean. And I doubt FFXIII will be half as good of a game as MGS4. But then again, quality doesn't always (if ever) equal sales.

I still think 1.5M is ridiculously high.

I understand that you're not expecting more than 2m, but I dont think "No other game on ps3 has sold 1m in Japan" is a good argument



Why don't you make like a tree and get out of here?

PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
PhantomLink said:
ultima said:
Those are crazy high numbers you guys are predicting for FFXIII.

So you're expecting more like 1.5-1.9 LTD?

I don't know, it just seems high... Has any other PS3 game even broken the million barrier in Japan yet?

Nop

Top selling ps3 games in japan

  1. MGS4 - 0.71m
  2. GT5 Prologue  - 0.57m
  3. Minna no Golf 5 - 0.51m
  4. RE5 - 0.50m

 

See, that's exactly what I mean. And I doubt FFXIII will be half as good of a game as MGS4. But then again, quality doesn't always (if ever) equal sales.

I still think 1.5M is ridiculously high.

I understand that you're not expecting more than 2m, but I dont think "No other game on ps3 has sold 1m in Japan" is a good argument

It's just my intuition telling me that that's crazy high. But, hey, I'd love to be wrong on this.



           

ffxiii should by all means have the biggest opening of any FF Game in japan, good advertisements will push this. its still very early, over 30 days away.



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TheSource said:

Well...its early but preorder figures for all four games are fairly good. So I'll go:

Samurai Warriors 3 Wii (including bundles) FW: 80,000 to 120,000 looks realistic...call it ~100K...LTD 250k?

Tales of Graces Wii FW - 120,000 to 160,000 looks realistic...  ~140K... LTD 220k

New Super Mario Brothers Wii FW - 500,000 to 750,000 looks realistic... 3.5m-4.5m LTD  (DS version will hit 6m in Japan)

Final Fantasy XIII FW - 850,000 to 1,150,000 looks realistic... 1.25m to 1.65m LTD

 

 

 

I'm not the expert here, but that seems like a very low number for ToG, ToS:DotNW has sold the same in japan



Why don't you make like a tree and get out of here?

Sengoku Musou 3 (fw ~120k, ltd ~230k)
Tales of Graces (fw ~210k, ltd 345k)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii (fw ~650k, ltd ~3.7m)
Final Fantasy XIII (fw ~1.3m, ltd 2m)

I'd also put money SM3 getting 360/PS3 ports in Q1 or Q2. 360 will get the "International" release of FFXIII next year too, possibly even exclusively.



FF13 - 1.5/.8 first week, 2.4/.6 ltd

FFX did 1.9 on 5 million PS2s, just saying.



Rei said:
FFXIII will at the very best hit 2m LTD in Japan. But that is very unlikely. My prediction is 1.75m LTD, 1.3m first week.

History: FFX has launched on a userbase of 4.7m and sold 1.75m first week, 2.32m LTD.


final fantasy xii sold 1.9 million first week with 20 mill ps2's sold. so i bet it will be about 2 mil first week.



my top 5 right now. 1. uncharted 2 2. assassin's creed 2 3. god of war 3 4. final fantasy xiii 5. blue dragon: awakened shadow.

New Super Mario Bros Wii
FW: 550k - 750k
LTD: 1.8m


Samurai Warriors 3
FW: 80k - 105k
LTD: 220k


Tales of Graces
FW: 220k - 250k
LTD: 480k


Final Fantasy XIII
FW: 1.3m - 1.5m
LTD: 2.2m



End of 2016 prediction

PS4:43M-46M

XBONE:28M-33M