dont get me wrong, guys, the game will sell over 10 million easily.

but in less than a year?

id like some of that crack.

And this, right here, is where you are wrong, and where your core assumption fails. The blue ocean are gamers, just like you and me. The only real difference is that they haven't had the marketer-conditioning we've been subjected to, and so they are more purely interested in things that matter, like, say, fun. Overall, they're a far healthier demographic as far as that goes, and I look forward to their dominance. It can only be better for gaming than what the currently-dominant demographic has done with it.

im selfish and have poop for a soul

Don't dream: Nintendo has it all, somewhere in a bank... 

Now, do you want to make (another) bet? 

Seriously, none of us could know: the Wii userbase is very large, and such a game easily stands out in the actual holiday line-up... and it's a game that will be like many others in the past 3-5 years on Wii and DS: evergreen...

You just can't know if it will make 7 millions, 9 millions, 11 millions or 13 millions in a year: but just dismiss its potential would be... adventurous...

Your comparing two bundled titles to NewSuperMarioBros:Wii. Don't forget that Mario came with pretty much every NES and SuperMarioWorld shipped with tons of SNES's too. Now your right with NSMB:DS it did sell 19 million copies and that is a very good indication of how well we can expect NewSuperMarioBros:Wii to do.

NewSuperMarioBros:DS is already a few years old and on the biggest platform availible. 113 million consoles to 55 million. Wii has half the user base that the DS has, thats gotta play a role as a major factor. Can NewSuperMarioBros:Wii actually beat NewSuperMarioBros:DS with only half the installed user base?

You also forget that NewSuperMarioBros:Wii will be competing against MarioGalaxy2 next spring/Christmas, can we expect NewSuperMarioBros:Wii to outperform Galaxy and Galaxy2. Nintendo is just releasing too many Mario games on a single platform. Sure NewSuperMarioBros:Wii will be successful, but honestly 11 mill in its launch year?

I expect 11 mill in lifetime sales, maybe higher if the Wii continues to sell this strong, but I'd even doubt NewSuperMarioBros:Wii will catch up to its DS counter part. Lets not forget Sonic and Bonk will both be taking sales away from our favorite plumber. NewSuperMarioBros:Wii has one holiday season unchallenged but after Christmas its going to see the full power of its competition, including competing against itself (Galaxy2).

However if Nintendo bundled NewSuperMarioBros:Wii with every Wii sold this Christmas onwards then I could see it performing on the same scale as SuperMarioBros(NES) and Super Mario World (SNES). But without a bundle I doubt it can even succeed in catching its handheld counter part!

I'm sorry, I stopped reading when you said "Let's not forget Sonic and Bonk will both be taking sales away from our favorite plumber." I think they tried that before, a few times each actually. Now they both make Nintendo games. Nintendo eats its competitors.

Buying a Wii without buying a 4-player 2-D Mario game is going to be as hard as buying a SNES without Super Mario World. Yeah, in both cases it's physically possible, but not too many people can actually do it.

Lets not forget Super Mario World was also bundled with the SNES which probubly attributed to its success. Lets also remember that Super Mario World did not sell 11-million copies during its launch year, neither did NewSuperMarioBros on DS. It is physically possible but highly unlikely, I think at best NewSuperMarioBros:Wii will catch up to NewSuperMarioBros:DS in lifetime sales.

But honestly 11-million during launch year, when pigs fly! Your talking nearly a million sales every single month of the year, sure 2-million to four million will probubly sell during the holidays this year, but your forgetting about Galaxy2 which will most definatly steal some sales!

In other words it is physically possible, but it is highly unlikely! I think fans will hype this up a ton. But in the end it will fail to live up to the hype much like The Conduit did and many other hyped games before that. (Not saying Mario will fail as bad as the Conduit just saying it won't sell like its being hyped up too).

May I suggest you go into the betting thread and place a wager, I'm sure their are a dozen level minded fans just waiting to have control of your sig and Avatar!

Keep it up joelcool7. Your words are going to haunt you.

I just checked the ages in the betting thread and noticed that nearly all the 'less than 11M' guys aren't old enough to remember the release of SMW and have no idea about the hype that surrounded SMB3. I understand now why you don't think it will make 11M but you Palstation kids are about to learn a lesson from the King of Games.

Oh, don't get me wrong; not only am I old enough to remember not just SMW and SMB3 but also SMB1, I also really, really want SMW to crack 11M. But realistically, I don't think it will break 10M, because I don't believe it can be effectively marketed to the blue ocean. It could have been marketable, had a few design decisions been different, and the end product could only have improved (over what is already likely to be a great game). But alas, Nintendo didn't have the guts to do what had to be done, and this game's sales will suffer for it.

Token motion wasn't enough for SMG to engage the blue ocean, and it won't be enough for this. You have to go all-in if you want to build an effective marketing campaign, and Nintendo failed to do that.

lol, youre posts are hilarious.