Why New Super Mario Bros. Wii WILL NOT sell 11 million in less than a year.

[Millennium]

Pyro as Bill said:
Keep it up joelcool7. Your words are going to haunt you.

I just checked the ages in the betting thread and noticed that nearly all the 'less than 11M' guys aren't old enough to remember the release of SMW and have no idea about the hype that surrounded SMB3. I understand now why you don't think it will make 11M but you Palstation kids are about to learn a lesson from the King of Games.

Oh, don't get me wrong; not only am I old enough to remember not just SMW and SMB3 but also SMB1, I also really, really want SMW to crack 11M. But realistically, I don't think it will break 10M, because I don't believe it can be effectively marketed to the blue ocean. It could have been marketable, had a few design decisions been different, and the end product could only have improved (over what is already likely to be a great game). But alas, Nintendo didn't have the guts to do what had to be done, and this game's sales will suffer for it.

Token motion wasn't enough for SMG to engage the blue ocean, and it won't be enough for this. You have to go all-in if you want to build an effective marketing campaign, and Nintendo failed to do that.