Why New Super Mario Bros. Wii WILL NOT sell 11 million in less than a year.

[Joelcool7]

The Ghost of RubangB said:
The game will sell more than 12 million in its first year, maybe even 15.

This game WILL be one of the 10 best selling games of all time. This game is Nintendo's ace in the hole. You can play it alone and have friends hop in and out at any level. Instead of tacking multiplayer minigames on the side (even though they're here too, and awesome), you can play every single level in the game 1-4 players, in either the regular adventure, or the coin battle mode. Oh man so good.

HERE is the trend we should be looking at:

The first 2-D Mario game on any console explodes. A new console means a new way to play, enjoy, eat/sleep/breathe 2-D Mario action.

Super Mario Bros. - 40 million, the game that invented all this gangsta shit

Super Mario World - 20 million (and the reason many people bought a SNES, it showcased the beautiful new 16-bit graphics back when graphical leaps were huuuuge each time)

New SMB - 19 million (and the reason many people bought a DS)

Super Mario Land - 18 million (and the reason many people bought a Game Boy)

Your comparing two bundled titles to NewSuperMarioBros:Wii. Don't forget that Mario came with pretty much every NES and SuperMarioWorld shipped with tons of SNES's too. Now your right with NSMB:DS it did sell 19 million copies and that is a very good indication of how well we can expect NewSuperMarioBros:Wii to do.

NewSuperMarioBros:DS is already a few years old and on the biggest platform availible. 113 million consoles to 55 million. Wii has half the user base that the DS has, thats gotta play a role as a major factor. Can NewSuperMarioBros:Wii actually beat NewSuperMarioBros:DS with only half the installed user base?

You also forget that NewSuperMarioBros:Wii will be competing against MarioGalaxy2 next spring/Christmas, can we expect NewSuperMarioBros:Wii to outperform Galaxy and Galaxy2. Nintendo is just releasing too many Mario games on a single platform. Sure NewSuperMarioBros:Wii will be successful, but honestly 11 mill in its launch year?

I expect 11 mill in lifetime sales, maybe higher if the Wii continues to sell this strong, but I'd even doubt NewSuperMarioBros:Wii will catch up to its DS counter part. Lets not forget Sonic and Bonk will both be taking sales away from our favorite plumber. NewSuperMarioBros:Wii has one holiday season unchallenged but after Christmas its going to see the full power of its competition, including competing against itself (Galaxy2).

However if Nintendo bundled NewSuperMarioBros:Wii with every Wii sold this Christmas onwards then I could see it performing on the same scale as SuperMarioBros(NES) and Super Mario World (SNES). But without a bundle I doubt it can even succeed in catching its handheld counter part!