Won't happen. 360 "slim" + Natal rebrand next year will counter Sony's gains this year. Same story as usual.

i would say somewhere in the end of 2011. Also,why are people telling it wont matter when next gen starts? because when next gen starts all PS3s and 360s are gonna burn and explode???

There will be time, when price will stop matter.
The only question, what price?

GC cost even 99$.

Why not, PS3 did it and CELL runs hotter with a larger footprint than any chip in the 360?   I doubt it'll be quite the scale down we saw with PS2 or PS3, but we'll still get an "updated" case redesign to go with the Natal rebrand and probably a price-cut.  

Well the 360 has managed to sell great at $200 and $300. It has easily outsold the Gamecube at a much higher price.

Aside from value, there is clearly a much bigger demand for the 360 than there ever was for the Gamecube.

2010.

i agree mid to late 2010, microsoft are panicking now as can be seen by their weak anlysis of their competition. They really have nothing to go on now with the 360. Natal, if it is as awesome as they say (I highly doubt it as it is a Microsoft product and will probably need 10 service packs to get it up to speed not to mention the price) will be wasted on this existing console it would be better on a new console with a SSD hard drive so it can have those service packs and security bugs quashed quickly ;)

I don't see it happening. MS just seems to have to much going for it to be overtaken. I'm sure the gap will close a little this year but with natal and the big ms line up next year the gap could get even worse for sony.

We'll have to see sales during and after Xmas to even get a vague idea. If PS3 gets a good boost for Xmas and keeps the current weekly lead after it, and Natal helps X360 but without giving it again the lead, if not temporarily, it could be from late Q1 to early Q3 2011. But there's that big triple "IF". Anyway, this cut is working for PS3 better than the previous, and better than any cut XB360 ever had, so this is a fact in favour of PS3. And about a surpass when 8th gen is already released not mattering, well this is bullshit, late sales give larger profit margins, so they matter a lot. Also, if MS retires XB360 when all of the three consoles' sales are too sluggish to be worth the effort, then nothing to hold against it, but if it does it when one of the others still sells well, to avoid being surpassed, well, that would be a retreat.