Why is there so much certainty in this thread? Certainty was soooo 2005/2006 people!

The name of this thread should be changed to "Speculation touted as fact!!!!!"

The PS3 is outselling the xbox indeed. And by a lot. But even with this pace and maybe 200k during the holidays you still have to take the slow season from january till september in account. The ps3 wont be outselling the xbox by 100k, maybe 50k but possibly less. MS wont sit still either. The fastest the ps3 will be outselling the xbox360 is imho after christmas 2010, not earlier. After that its pretty much impossible to make any predictions, since there are too many unknown variables. Everybody who talks about the period after that is at best making educated guesses and most of them are just plain idiots.

You can compare it with weatherforecasting. On short term you can predict with high certainty based on information (pricecuts, gamereleases, holidays) and trends. On the longer term the information is unreliable (new games announced, new pricecuts) and the trend is not worth as much. So the forecasts get cluttered. Best method is to make a lot of predictions by making variations on all the variables and then try to find a trend line.

The only reliable info we have for long term is that blu ray is getting more popular (not by how much though), sony cant afford another pricecut for at least one year (based on financials, correct me if im wrong) and MS has space for another 50 price cut. Further more we know of the wand coming out for the PS3 (impact unknown, probably very little), GT5 (impact pretty big, possible new audience), God of War (little impact).
For MS the only real big exclusive is Halo Reach (little impact, see halo odst, will do better though), Project Natal (impact unknown, but possible attraction of new audience) and the earlier mentioned possible pricecut.

The only real certainty is that the Holidays 2010 will be big (probably around the same as holiday 09).

Maybe it will be interesting to develop a model where the baseline is this year's sales and then adding formula's for all the variables where you can adjust the impact.

Metsadah.

I still believe that GT5 impact is overblown. When it releases the PS3 will be nearly 3.5 years old. And many other high quality racing games will have been released on the PS3 including GT5P that will have already brought many GT fans onboard. PS3 sales will be over 30 million at the time GT5 releases.

The situation isnt nearly the same as when GT3 released for the PS2. The PS2 user base was smaller (less than 9 million consoles sold). GT3 by many was the first real high quality release for the PS2 and certainly the first high quality racing game. The PS2 did not have a real competitor releasing software in the same genre at near or by some people better quality.

GT5 will sell awesome just the impact on hardware will not be anywhere near what GT3 did or what some people on VGC believe it will be.

no matter what...it's just getting tougher for the 360 to compete with the current ps3 console. I've no much expectations for either M$'s natal or Sony's Eye...

*Facepalm*
I thought we were done with these troll threads.

it is only a question of time until the ps3 beats the 360 worldwide. only for the us it will be difficult but i think it is still possible.

Another week of PS3 outselling 360, and this time even in the USA- despite 2 days of Forza 3.

Forza will affect hardware as much as Killzone2 did for PS3.  Killzone is no Halo and Forza sure as hell is not GT.

'You wanting it won't make it happen. Things will switch up again when 360 price gets cut below $199 + Natal. Its up to Sony to respond again after that.'

Sorry but the last price cut by xbox had no effect on sales. Natal does not look impressive, looks more like a joke.

I get the feeling that Microsoft has realised that the xbox is on its last legs and is milking it for whatever they can. Over priced sky tv, possible increase in price of xbox live, Natal which will no doubt have many techinical issues and will cost a shit load. What I find amazing is that whatever crap Microsoft puts out, xbox owners just suck up to it like zombies.