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Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi vs ZorroX :: Japan prediction Contest for Wii & PS3 Holiday Sales. :P

darthdevidem01 on 01 December 2009
jarrod said:
darthdevidem01 said:
ioi said:

Evidently my November predictions were a little off - I seriously expected games like Final Fantasy CC, Super Robot Wars and Taiko no Tatsujin to be doing more like 100k, 75k and 60k week ones respectively and driving more Wii hardware than they did. Also on PS3, Bayonetta and Winning Eleven 2010 did better than expected and I didn't realise there was a WE2010 bundle.

That said, things have evened up to about where I was expecting them to be at the end of November (in terms of weekly sales) and I expect my December predictions to be pretty accurate - Wii will definitely see a far greater holiday boost and with NSBM Wii looking to launch at around 1m units week one (more than any other Wii title to date) then it should definitely be moving a lot of hardware - existing Mario owners or not. NSMB DS shifted a lot of DS units despite Mario Kart Wii and Super Mario 64 DS having already launched - 2D Mario is just far far more popular in Japan than any other type of Mario title.

Final Fantasy XIII could well get a little higher in week one that first thought as well - 1.4m would be my current estimate based on preorders. PS3 sales should continue to be strong through December with a 175k week when FF XIII launches being entirely possible but I still think Wii will sell far more and also NSMB Wii will comfortably outsell FF XIII for the year as well.

Will be interesting to see how things play out...

But ioi Japan's biggest retailer said FF13 > NSMB Wii in Japan in December

or are the smaller retail outlets expected to sell more NSMB Wii than FF13?

You mean Japan's biggest rental chain with a small games business on the side. ;)

 

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5893

I said what our very own VGC contributor wrote & added a bit of spice by saying biggest

LEAVE ME & MY FINAL FANTASY ALONE JARROD!



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jarrod on 01 December 2009
darthdevidem01 said:
jarrod said:
darthdevidem01 said:
ioi said:

Evidently my November predictions were a little off - I seriously expected games like Final Fantasy CC, Super Robot Wars and Taiko no Tatsujin to be doing more like 100k, 75k and 60k week ones respectively and driving more Wii hardware than they did. Also on PS3, Bayonetta and Winning Eleven 2010 did better than expected and I didn't realise there was a WE2010 bundle.

That said, things have evened up to about where I was expecting them to be at the end of November (in terms of weekly sales) and I expect my December predictions to be pretty accurate - Wii will definitely see a far greater holiday boost and with NSBM Wii looking to launch at around 1m units week one (more than any other Wii title to date) then it should definitely be moving a lot of hardware - existing Mario owners or not. NSMB DS shifted a lot of DS units despite Mario Kart Wii and Super Mario 64 DS having already launched - 2D Mario is just far far more popular in Japan than any other type of Mario title.

Final Fantasy XIII could well get a little higher in week one that first thought as well - 1.4m would be my current estimate based on preorders. PS3 sales should continue to be strong through December with a 175k week when FF XIII launches being entirely possible but I still think Wii will sell far more and also NSMB Wii will comfortably outsell FF XIII for the year as well.

Will be interesting to see how things play out...

But ioi Japan's biggest retailer said FF13 > NSMB Wii in Japan in December

or are the smaller retail outlets expected to sell more NSMB Wii than FF13?

You mean Japan's biggest rental chain with a small games business on the side. ;)

 

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5893

I said what our very own VGC contributor wrote & added a bit of spice by saying biggest

LEAVE ME & MY FINAL FANTASY ALONE JARROD!

NEVER!  Or at least not until they announce that Wii version! :P

 

Anyway, here's the projected Tsutaya Dec Top 10 for the curious...

 

  • 1. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3)
  • 2. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii)
  • 3. Zelda Spirit Tracks (DS)
  • 4. Gundam VS Gundam Next Plus (PSP)
  • 5. Phantasy Star Portable 2 (PSP)
  • 6. Professor Layton and the Demon's Flute (DS)
  • 7. Tales of Graces (Wii)
  • 8. Winning Eleven 2010 (PSP)
  • 9. Winning Eleven 2010 (PS2)
  • 10. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 (PS3)

 



jarrod on 01 December 2009
ioi said:
Well he's obviously missing Wii Fit Plus, Tomodatchi Collection, Pokemon, Wii Sports Resort (maybe) if he's looking at total December sales, unless he's talking just about new releases.

I can't see FF XIII outselling NSMB Wii for December in Japan.

Has to be all releases since Layton 4 is November.  Still, I'm not sure if he's talking only about the Tsutaya chains or Japan as a whole, it wasn't really clear.  The former could be realistic, the latter not by a longshot.



jarrod on 01 December 2009

Yeah, must be just their stores.  I expect the overall JP top 10 (new releases) to look pretty close though...

  1. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (2m+)
  2. Final Fantasy XIII (1.8-2m)
  3. The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (500-600k)
  4. Mobile Suit Gundam Vs. Gundam NEXT Plus (400-500k)
  5. Phantasy Star Portable 2 (300-500k)
  6. Tales of Graces (250-350k)
  7. World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 PSP (200-300k)
  8. Samurai Warriors 3 (150-250k)
  9. PowerPro Kun Pocket 12 (150k-200k)
  10. World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 PS2 (150-200k)

 

...the only real wildcard is PokePark imo, which could be absolutely HUGE or just fizzle entirely.  I really don't know what to expect, it could be another sneaky 500k seller or it could just get ignored and not crack 100k.  Neither would really surprise me.

I think WE Playmaker has an outside chance of doing better this year too, since it's releasing alongside the PS2/PSP versions (rather than MONTHS later) and gets a CCPro bundle.  Might even get to 100k again.

 

 



ViolentPhlegm on 04 December 2009

This is the update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M race thread:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

Notes:

1) Last week's numbers for both consoles have had very small upwards adjustments.

2) This is the "new" first week that Wii has outsold PS3 since the start of the race (and also the first time since the Slim launch).  This time it should stick.

3) PS3's lead is almost exactly 100,000 more than the lead predicted by ioi (39k) in his Oct 21 revised projections through this week.

4) PS3's lead going into NSMBW week is comparable to the peak weeks of Wii sales during holiday 2008 (141,141; 148,627; and 130,613).  This means that PS3 should still be leading after next week (ioi predicts Wii outselling PS3 by 110,000 next week) but obviously with a somewhat reduced margin.

WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 29 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 8,823,909 3,963,087 Wii: 4,860,822
Left to target 1,176,091 1,036,913 PS3: 139,178
This week (yoy) 44,377 (-3.5%) 41,572 (+17.6%) Wii: 2,805
Since race start (yoy) 286,897 (-0.4%) 366,039 (+122.2%) PS3: 79,142


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ViolentPhlegm on 07 December 2009

I'm going to do a simple weekly analysis on the predicted numbers.  I'm not doing cumulative results for now because those numbers have gotten a bit confused with old predictions being discarded and revised predictions being made at diferent times.  Instead, I'll state how far the consoles will be at the end of January from their 10M and 5M targets if predictions are 100% correct from now on.  Only revised predictions are used for the Wii numbers.

WEEK ENDED NOV 29 Actual ioi ZorroX
Prediction Error End of Jan Prediction Error End of Jan
Wii 44,377 52,500 +8,123 (+18.3%) -86,091 from 10M 47,000 +2,623 (+5.9%) -316,091 from 10M
PS3 41,672 38,500 -3,172 (-7.6%) -345,163 from 5M 55,500 +13,828 (+33.2%) +15,837 over 5M

EDIT: I've just noticed something... When ioi revised his predictions on Oct. 21 in the Wii 10M / PS3 5M thread, he apparently revised his PS3 numbers (mostly downwards) in addition to the Wii numbers.  The above calculations are based on Noobie's chart and since this is his thread I'll keep doing them that way but perhaps also include a note about ioi's revised PS3 numbers.  Generally, though, ioi's orginal PS3 predictions seem to be closer to the mark than the Oct 21 predictions.

For this week, ioi's revised PS3 prediction was 35,500 which would have given him an error of -6,172 (-14.8%) and at the end of January, his revised numbers predict that PS3 will be 403,413 short of the 5M mark.



Alby_da_Wolf on 07 December 2009

According to http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=6112 Wii during the week including NSMBW should have eaten from a minimum of 53000 to a maximum of 87000 of PS3 lead in their respective achievements. Thanks to Mario it will be a closer and more interesting race, we'll have to wait for FFXIII to see if PS3 can build again a consistent lead or if Wii will win... But a tie is not unlikely.



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postofficebuddy on 07 December 2009

Source's Wii prediction should be right in line but I think PS3 is slightly underpredicted in the preview. If Media Create is to believed the week before was already near the upper end of his window just on the strength of the holiday boost and there was no major releases 2 weeks ago. AC2 probably didn't boost too much hardware but 360 got a 2k boost with a little bit more than half the software sales so I think it should be good for an extra 3k for PS3 so I think it will be closer 55k-60k this week.



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Edouble24 on 08 December 2009

considering the NSMB software sales it seems like the Wii boost is going to be huge. It could cut the lead down completely in two weeks.



ViolentPhlegm on 08 December 2009
postofficebuddy said:
Source's Wii prediction should be right in line but I think PS3 is slightly underpredicted in the preview. If Media Create is to believed the week before was already near the upper end of his window just on the strength of the holiday boost and there was no major releases 2 weeks ago. AC2 probably didn't boost too much hardware but 360 got a 2k boost with a little bit more than half the software sales so I think it should be good for an extra 3k for PS3 so I think it will be closer 55k-60k this week.


If you're talking about last week (WE Nov 29), he was kind of off on the PS3.  He predicted it would drop into 25k to 30k from 32k (VGC) the week before, but VGC ended up having PS3 at 41.5k.  Wii hit the upper end of his range (35k to 45k) with 44.3k so he was a bit conservative on both platforms.