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Forums - Sales Discussion - ioi vs ZorroX :: Japan prediction Contest for Wii & PS3 Holiday Sales. :P

ViolentPhlegm on 18 December 2009

Another weekly analysis chart:

1) ioi's revised Wii predictions and original PS3 predictions are almost dead on.

WEEK ENDED DEC 13 Wii: 138,853 PS3: 77,669
Prediction Error to 10M (thru Jan 31) Prediction Error to 5M (thru Jan 31)
ioi (original) 110,000 -28,853 -20.8% -182,908 75,000 -2,669 -3.4% -335,929
ioi (revised) 135,000 -3,853 -2.7% -132,908 60,000 -17,669 -22.7% -375,179
ZorroX (original) 100,000 -38,853 -28.0% -347,908 95,000 +17,331 +22.3% -5,929
ZorroX (revised) 120,000

-18,853

 -13.6% -317,908 - - - -

NOTE: "to 10M/5M (thru Jan 31)" indicates how far sales will be from the 10M/5M target if the prediction set is 100% correct from now on.

Predictions within 15%.

Predictions worse than 30%.



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ViolentPhlegm on 24 December 2009

Weekly update time:  FFXIII edition.

This was originally posted in the Wii 10M / PS3 5M Japan contest located here:

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

1) Last week's numbers were adjusted up slightly for Wii and down slightly for PS3.

2) Wii is about 50k higher than its best week last holiday season.  Everything to say about PS3 has been said already.

3) It looks like some adjustments have been made to earlier in the year as the PS3's original head start of about 60k has been reduced to 56k.

WEEK ENDING DEC 20 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead
LTD total 9,260,588 4,332,273 Wii: 4,928,315
Left to target 739,412 667,727 PS3: 71,685

This week (yoy)

 192,875 (+36.7%) 242,452 (+532.8%) PS3: 49,577
Since race start (yoy) 723,576 (+25.4%) 738,949 (+181.0%) PS3: 15,373


ViolentPhlegm on 26 December 2009

Weekly analysis for FFXIII week:

2 nearly perfect predicitons this week (ioi's revised prediction for Wii and ZorroX's prediction for PS3).

WEEK ENDED DEC 20 Wii: 192,875 PS3: 242,452
Prediction Error to 10M thru Jan 31 Prediction Error to 5M thru Jan 31
ioi (original) 180,000 -12,875 -6.7% -169,412 175,000 -67,452 -27.8% -275,477
ioi (revised) 190,000 -2,875 -1.5% -129,412 165,000 -77,452 -31.9% -304,727
ZorroX (original) 125.000 -67,875 -35.2% -279,412 245,000 +2,548 +1.1% -15,477
ZorroX (revised) 155,000 -37,875 -19.6% -279,412 - - - -

Predictions within 15%.  Predictions worse than 30%.



Noobie on 26 December 2009
Noobie said:

Was just bored n had lot of time to kill so i decided to create a thread to check the prediction accuracy by ioi & ZorroX

These numbers r taken from http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1 thread.

 

 


 Wii PS3

ioi's Orig ioi's Upd ZorroX' Orig ZorroX's Upd Actual Last Year      ioi's  ZorroX's Actual Last Year
27-Sep-09 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 12,415 26,183  30,000 42,000 45,294 8,370
04-Oct-09 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 33,831 25,691       30,000 47,000 37,529 7,400
11-Oct-09 41,500 41,500 41,500 41,500 30,017 22,214       28,000 40,000 29,991 5,875
18-Oct-09 38,500 38,500 38,500 38,500 28,596 25,538       25,000 45,000 28,815 4,810
25-Oct-09 36,000 25,000 36,000 36,000 25,560 24,671       23,000 40,000 30,793 4,056
01-Nov-09 45,000 35,000 55,000 45,000 28,056 24,086       31,000 65,000 36,785 38,171
08-Nov-09 42,500 36,000 42,500 30,500 28,017 26,890       27,500 55,500 46,283 22,399
15-Nov-09 55,000 42,000 55,000 37,500 24,982 28,922       31,000 52,000 35,998 20,426
22-Nov-09 145,000 40,000 115,000 35,000 31,046 37,800       31,000 51,000 32,098 17,895
29-Nov-09 105,000 52,500 75,000 47,000 44,514 45,970       38,500 55,500 43,077 35,339
06-Dec-09 95,000 155,000 85,000 125,000 104,193 55,405       49,500 60,500 54,160 28,432
13-Dec-09 110,000 135,000 100,000 120,000 139,474 92,392       75,000 95,000 75,766 32,169
20-Dec-09 180,000 190,000 125,000 155,000 192,875 141,141     175,000 245,000 242,452 38,431
27-Dec-09 215,000 255,000 145,000 175,000   148,627     125,000 195,000   47,464
03-Jan-10 165,000 165,000 115,000 130,000   130,613     110,000 180,000   64,970
10-Jan-10 65,000 65,000 75,000 50,000   42,843       47,500 97,500   29,240
17-Jan-10 50,000 50,000 50,000 40,000   31,632       40,000 70,000   20,251
24-Jan-10 40,000 40,000 40,000 35,000   26,226       36,500 56,500   17,765
31-Jan-10 35,000 35,000 35,000 30,000   24,093       33,250 53,250   16,932
Total Till Now 956,500 853,500 831,500 774,000 723,576 576,903 594,500 893,000 738,949 263,804
Grand Total 1,526,500 1,463,500 1,291,500 1,234,000   980,937 986,750 1,458,750   460,417
                     
          Wii       PS3  
At Start         8,537,012       3,593,324  
To Achieve         10,000,000       5,000,000  
Total Diff         1,462,988       1,406,676  
Ach Till Now         723,576 25%     738,949 180%
Curr Total         9,260,588       4,332,273  
Remaing         739,412       667,727  

 

Updated all the numbers... Sorry for taking a bit longer this time...

1. Surprisingly ZorroX was dead on PS3 FFXIII week numbers.. i cant believe it myself..

2. ioi's number r pretty accurate for Wii.. let see if Wii hit 255k next week.. 

3. PS3 is again ahead in Since start of race hardware numbers and also remaining sales to achieve the target.. But next two weeks are going to be very crucial for Wii... more than they r for PS3.. cuz i think PS3 is getting some good softwares in late Jan n early Feb to give it a boast. So Wii need to get some lead if it really want to wish the race..

4. Race is still in a pendulum status... right now i will say its again back to 50 50 chance for both consoles..



http://techorate.blogspot.com/

http://caylu.wordpress.com/

Alby_da_Wolf on 05 January 2010

Wii has the lead now, but not as dramatic as somebody predicted, now we have still to see clearance sales season's weeks (and in a lot of countries where sales start later than in anglosaxon countries and/or where Xmas is celebrated later or gifts are given also at Epiphany, the last one or two gifts weeks).



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


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ViolentPhlegm on 05 January 2010

@Alby:  The contest is about Japan only.



Alby_da_Wolf on 05 January 2010
ViolentPhlegm said:

@Alby:  The contest is about Japan only.

OOOPS!

So, only sales weeks, unless Japanese consumerism doesn't make them adopt Orthodox Xmas and Orthodox and Catholic Epiphany! 

 



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!   


ViolentPhlegm on 05 January 2010

Here is the Christmas week update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M thread.

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=87346&page=1

1) This is being posted before Famitsu hardware numbers have been released, but Media Create's numbers are out and are quite a bit below VGC's numbers (30k fewer for Wii and 37k fewer for PS3).

2) Wii is leading the race for the first time since the beginning of the thread.

WEEK ENDING DEC 27 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead (% lead vs competitor)
LTD total 9,511,555 4,487,623 Wii: 5,023,932 (112.0%)
Left to target 488,445 512,377 Wii: 23,932 (4.7%)
This week (yoy) 243,706 (+64.0%) 147,349 (+210.4%) Wii: 96,357 (65.4%)
Since race start (yoy) 974,543 (+34.3%) 890,575 (+186.1%) Wii: 83,968 (9.4%)


ViolentPhlegm on 05 January 2010

Here's my analysis for Christmas week:

1) As noted above, Media Create's numbers are significantly below VGC's numbers so the error values given below may not be particularly valid.

WEEK ENDED DEC 27 Wii: 243,706 PS3: 147,349
Prediction Error to 10M thru Jan 31 Prediction Error to 5M thru Jan 31
ioi (original) 215,000 -28,706 -11.8% -133,445 125,000 -22,349 -15.2% -245,127
ioi (revised) 255,000 +11,294 +4.6% -133,445 115,000 -32,349 -22.0% -264,377
ZorroX (original) 145,000 -98,706 -40.5% -173,445 195,000 +47,651 +32.3% -55,127
ZorroX (revised) 175,000 -68,706 -28.2% -203,445 - - - -

NOTE: "to 10M/5M (thru Jan 31)" indicates how far sales will be from the 10M/5M target if the prediction set is 100% correct from now on.

Predictions within 15%.

Predictions worse than 30%.



ViolentPhlegm on 11 January 2010

New Year's Week Update from the Wii 10M / PS3 5M thread:

1) Last week's numbers have been adjusted down: Wii by 13k and PS3 by 30k.

2) Wii has now sold over 1 million units since the start of the race.

3) From here on in, I will also give the time lead which is how long ago the lead console reached the trailing console's corresponding current total.  In this week's case, PS3's total is 4,579,587 so the time lead would be how many weeks ago Wii surpassed 9,579,587.

WEEK ENDING JAN 3 Wii to 10M PS3 to 5M Lead (%lead vs competitor)
LTD total 9,674,461 4,579,587 Wii: 5,094,874 (111.3%)
Left to target 325,539 420,413 Wii: 94,874 (22.6%)
This week (yoy) 175,627 (+34.5%) 121,386 (+86.8%) Wii: 54,241 (44.7%)
Since race start (yoy) 1,137,449 (+32.9%) 982,539 (+161.2%) Wii: 154,910 (15.8%)

Time lead: Wii (1 week)