I'm going to do a simple weekly analysis on the predicted numbers. I'm not doing cumulative results for now because those numbers have gotten a bit confused with old predictions being discarded and revised predictions being made at diferent times. Instead, I'll state how far the consoles will be at the end of January from their 10M and 5M targets if predictions are 100% correct from now on. Only revised predictions are used for the Wii numbers.
| WEEK ENDED NOV 29 | Actual | ioi | ZorroX | ||||
| Prediction | Error | End of Jan | Prediction | Error | End of Jan | ||
| Wii | 44,377 | 52,500 | +8,123 (+18.3%) | -86,091 from 10M | 47,000 | +2,623 (+5.9%) | -316,091 from 10M |
| PS3 | 41,672 | 38,500 | -3,172 (-7.6%) | -345,163 from 5M | 55,500 | +13,828 (+33.2%) | +15,837 over 5M |
EDIT: I've just noticed something... When ioi revised his predictions on Oct. 21 in the Wii 10M / PS3 5M thread, he apparently revised his PS3 numbers (mostly downwards) in addition to the Wii numbers. The above calculations are based on Noobie's chart and since this is his thread I'll keep doing them that way but perhaps also include a note about ioi's revised PS3 numbers. Generally, though, ioi's orginal PS3 predictions seem to be closer to the mark than the Oct 21 predictions.
For this week, ioi's revised PS3 prediction was 35,500 which would have given him an error of -6,172 (-14.8%) and at the end of January, his revised numbers predict that PS3 will be 403,413 short of the 5M mark.
