1-1 and no lag probably.

being able to work in all games, they have to find a way to apply above shovelware, and gimmicks.

They are re-releasing RE5 using the PS Eye. That's a start to show off the technology.

1 Price (must be under $400 bundled Xbox360 and $200 without X360)
2 Games (must get lot support and great games)
3 Accuracy
4 Quality (no more RROD)
5 Competition

the guys in the video don't seem to have problems with their dark pigmentation (I dunno how much more black you can be than the guy with the black cap on but not much...).... and that is doing gestures as small as turning your hands as a wheel...
Moreover, if color was a problem because it detects skin.... wouldn't this thing have a hell of a problem with your legs? most people wear pants and shoes...
Worst case, this could always ship with a pair of white/grey gloves it that's really an issue...

The only thing I dislike about natal is the lack of movement control. I do like deciding on my own pacing. Then again if the thing can detect when you tilt forward or backwards, then that could be enough... but bothersome.

Funny you link that article but not the update to the article here http://www.gamezine.co.uk/news/formats/xbox360/microsoft-natal-will-work-all-ethnicities-at-launch-$1302807.htm

OT-

For one it's gotta be bundled and priced right for those that already bought their 360s.

It's gotta have real support and unit pushing game, so far nothing they've shown has that kind of promise.

It's gotta appeal to that mass market.

Well, for me:

1 - market position of the Wii. This is obvious. Right now the Wii is the fix of choice for motion control and has gobbled up a huge percent of the market presumably interested in motion controls for games such as MS has shown - how much is left, for Natal or Sony?

2 - Natal looks to me like it will need some serious space for some titles. I guess you could argue the same for Wii and Sony, but a physical wand means you can stand still while just moving one arm, Natal, as 'you are the controller' needs you to make all inputs via your body. So either the inputs will be very minimal for some games, or you're going to need a lot of room (and energy) to constantly move your arms, legs, etc. vs using a Nunchuck and Mote. I'm not sure how practical Natal is really going to prove for many households.

3 - while Natal looks great in concept, I'm still of the view it's actually the weakest motion control option for games (although the best as an interface). The main issue for me is the lack of feedback due to lack of controller. Essentially, you're mugging in air with no feedback. I think that in general, the average person, despite all the 'controller as barrier' messages from MS would prefer feedback. Take Tennis. With Natal, as advertised, I simply swing my arm, no feedback, no rumble, nothing, just a visual response on my TV. With Wii Mote (or Sony Wand I presume) I swing my arm, get appropriate feedback via rumble I've 'struck' the ball and get the same visual cue. Therefore both the Nintendo and Sony options will feel more natural and immersive. Our bodies know its not natural (or immersive) to get no physical feedback. It's like when Sony tried to diss rumble due to their lawsuit - everyone knew it was nonsense, and the second you played the same game with rumble vs no feedback it just felt superior.

The big advantage Natal could have, in my view, is if MS get good traction with it as an input device for PC and Natal first, getting people used to it in concept then building out with the games as they come up with titles that work well with it.

Price and Software

They will be the major factors. I do not see feedback being an issue as this could easily be resolved by a peripheral if people felt they needed that but seeing people play to date the immersion comes from being in the game and not from the feedback supplied by the wheel. I think people get a bit to hung up on the idea that Natal for some reason is banned from using peripherals.

Skin colour and the number of players is also I think a red herring as Microsoft have already demonstrated and declared that it will work with all skin types and sizes. The number of players has again already been demonstrated to be well handled by the body signature which changes over time and detects persons even when temporarily out of site and in the dark.

Space is a concern but I think only for very few people as most living rooms will provide sufficient space obviously when multiple poeple are on screen then at some point we will have space concerns. It will be interesting to go to a large LAN and watch lots of people jumping around in the aisles or even in a shop.

I also do not think it is a good idea for Sony to try to market its device as Natal capable because it is not and this will eventually lead to negative feedback. They should make use of any lead to market.

The biggest problem I see with Natal is direction. I think Microsoft is trying to market it toward both the casual audience and the hardcore audience, but I can't see it being successful with either.

For the casual audience Microsoft has the advantage of being extremely approachable for people who feel out of element using a controller, but I question how large this audience could be. The only demographic I can imagine where this would apply would be the elderly. However, I doubt that an elderly person who wouldn't be interested in using a Wii Remote or one of Sony's wands to play a game would be interest in flailing their limbs around playing that box-breaking game. Another probelm I see is with Nintendo's domanance in the casual market. Nintendo has always been a company that was extremely familiy-friendly. They have that demographic hooked and as long as the Wii bundled with the Wii Remote is cheaper or the same price as a 360 along with Natal, then the family/kid-friendly demographic will almost invariably choose the Wii.

For the hardcore audience, I don't think the lack of tactile feedback is going to resonate with them. Simple as that. It also doesn't help that Nintendo has already had their version of motion control available for a while now and Sony will be entering with their PlayStation Eye / Wand combo early next year that can pretty much do anything that we've seen Natal do given that Sony develops the software for it.

Oh I don't think Natal is 'banned' from peripherals, I'm just going by MS current positioning of 'no controller'.  I half expect MS to quietly do an about face and produce some peripherals at some point post launch.  My point is that in practise, people normally prefer to feel a physical connection - it just doesn't feel 'right' swining you arms and seeming to hit something with zero feedback.  Try it right now and you'll see what I mean.  Swing your arm as though playing Tennis - feels off, right?  Swing your arm as though playing tennis holding something inert - feels better, right?  Now, get access to a Wii if you don't have one, play Wii Sports and feel the rumble when you play Tennis - feels much better than the other two, right?  You can't change that, as we're wired for physical feedback.

You're right on price though, if it's too expensive that will negate any potential impact vs the Wii, particularly with Wii getting a price drop.

I know they want to appeal to the Wii / Casual market, but there has to be some sort of a legitimate "hardcore" game at launch whether its some sort street fighter style fighting game or Ninja Gaiden style slasher game to appeal to the core xbox fans.

Maybe a new Castle Crashers with Natal support. It seems like that is a casual game that crosses over to the Hardcore crowd.