The biggest problems that I see with the Natal is price and games. If they can keep it at $99 or less with the inclusion of a sports game pack they should do very well. I think they can do this because the natal will be bundled with every new 360 that is sold. That means that the tech will drop down in price because of mass production. The better the 360 does the cheaper it will be for M$ to produce the natal and the cheaper it can sell it to everyone else. Microsoft is known for cutting their costs and passing it along to the consumer so I see no problems there.

@ StrifeHawkins
What happens when there's lots of people moving in front of you or you live in a dark place with dark coloured walls etc...and you're black

Natal has facial recognition software built in so it will know who is actually playing the game. Everyone else in the room will probably have no effect on the game. If you have seen some of the Youtube video of people playing the game, you will see other people in the room moving around a bit and it doesn't seem to affect the player.

As for the black walls black people thing, I don't think there will be a problem. From most of the stuff I have seen on that its a bit of bs. I would be willing to bet M$ wouldn't release natal if it had problems detecting black people in dark rooms.

While there are certainly a lot of hoops for M$ to jump through in order for this to work. I don't think any of them are game stoppers. The press have been eating this up and think its the second coming. It is already ahead of Sony in that regard and it would be smart of Sony to try and market their tech as similar to Natal.

Natal will never be success in the terms that most console gamers use the term. While it will receive an excellent burst and some novelty use it won't succeed. Instead we should consider that this will be an input form that will be simplified and adopted as newer form of input for future entertainment over all. Where as the WiiRemote design will end up as the standard direction for in hand controller input. Natal design will be used for the no controller input design. Think of DVD players using a simplified Natal.

Otherwise the biggest hurdle for it's success was that it should have been released 4 years ago in regards to console sales.

From what I see now from Natal I see nothing interesting. I don't want to drive without a wheel. At least Nintendo was smart enough to included a plastic wheel in Mario Cart Wii. Also I want some kind of controller.

:) Of course, nothing in Natal would preclude you from holding onto whatever wheel you wanted to while driving.  If you wanted to hold onto an unused 18-wheeler's steering wheel, it would work fine.

Also: while the first generation of Natal titles will likely be envisioned as completely controller-less, there's nothing that's saying that supplemental controllers wouldn't work in conjuction with Natal's setup.  In fact, it's relatively easy to imagine a specialized controller/Natal setup working for all kinds of titles.

There are a whole bunch of third party developers who are experimenting with the technology now, lots of brainy people and good designers figuring out ways to use Natal.

I say from what I've seen. So far I've seen no controller in the Natal videos. You may be able to use a toilet seat as a wheel then again you might not.

Accuracy, and lack of a dedicated hand held controller.

You look weird, while doing natal, I don't see any point of it, unless you're talking about casual games, seems like a gimmick, price point if we go by xbox 360 history of pricing their accessories.

It should be $99.99 at launch, and the games should be good.

price is the only problem i can see it having, from being a huge blockbuster success. i think m$ will have the tech running almost perfect by the time is launches, and the games i am sure will be good to great at launch. and m$ knows this and with it entering its 5th of sales when natal launches , i think m$ will have natal ads everywhere imagineable too make sure it is off and running from the start.

1. It has to be bundled with all new consoles.
2. The solo Natal has to come with something that compels women to want it. You'll probably have 20 million Xbox 360 by then (maybe more) owned by guys with GF who have no real interest in gaming. Throw in Yoga trainer or a Belly Dancing Basics trainer... hell throw both in with a mix of sports.
3. Natal's response rate has to match a 30fps game... that's like 130ms or so if I'm not mistaken... some are worse like KZ2 is somewhere around 145. If it can do 90ms it'll be awesome but it needs to be really responsive for 30fps game play.
4. Big games have to make use of it. Head tracking to simulate a real 3D environment for Halo: Reach and maybe even for RTSes.
5. Redesigned Natal Dashboard that only loads when a Natal is detected that uses a 3D interface... it's not that important, but it would be f'n cool.
6. Patch older games to work with Natal. Don't be a bitch about it... throw down on Halo Wars with a full on patch and use finger tracking... hey kids don't need to be playing the game anyway right?
7. XNA support right away like Zune HD right away... next day at the latest
8. Massive blitz of ads building up for at least 3 months. Release it in Sept with both SKUs without a price change and release a lower priced Non-Natal Elite SKU.
9. Everything Nintendo ever did that was popular do over and do better. Get those people who have a Wii exited again and create a Natal Arcade Day for games on XBLA that use Natal... hint make it voice controlled... like "download games" ... "Natal games" ... "Belly Dancing Intermediate"
10. Get Milo and Kate out and working as best as possible... kids are going to love it so marketed to them... people that are on these forums are bitches who will cry about every little thing that doesn't make this a True AI.

10.