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Forums - Sales - Why I predict First Week JPN FF13 sales to be 1.6 million

sc94597 on 27 September 2009
FinalEvangelion said:
Also, for the series has been in a decline argument. Here are total sales since FF7 in Japan

FF7 - 3.93 million

FF8 - 3.64 million

FF9 - 2.8 million

FF10 - 3.29 million (inc. International)

FF10-2 - 2.7 million (inc. Last Mission)

FF11 - Outlier for Japanese sales because MMO

FF12 - 2.42 million


A little bit of a downard trend, but first week sales of usually been 1.8-2 million except for FF8 which was much higher.

Now show world wide sales and you'll notice the difference isn't as minute as you may think.



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darthdevidem01 on 27 September 2009

oh yeah my FF13 9.9 Million predictions is HEAVILY relying upon xbox 360 SW sales at a big level

If MS can market it & get that 360 WRPG crowd to buy it, it can do those sales



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Carl on 27 September 2009
sc94597 said:
FinalEvangelion said:
Also, for the series has been in a decline argument. Here are total sales since FF7 in Japan

FF7 - 3.93 million

FF8 - 3.64 million

FF9 - 2.8 million

FF10 - 3.29 million (inc. International)

FF10-2 - 2.7 million (inc. Last Mission)

FF11 - Outlier for Japanese sales because MMO

FF12 - 2.42 million


A little bit of a downard trend, but first week sales of usually been 1.8-2 million except for FF8 which was much higher.

Now show world wide sales and you'll notice the difference isn't as minute as you may think.

The thread is about Japan sales.



                            

Alby_da_Wolf on 27 September 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:

Thing is, is FF as popular now as it was back then? FFX-2 sold only 2.41 million in Japan, and FF12 only 2.42 million lifetime, on a much larger base.

In addition Famitsu is predicting a less than 1 million first shipment, so even getting enough software out to do 1.6 million first week is unlikely

FFVII and FFX where the first of the series, IIRC, on the respective current gen Playstations of their times, just like FFXIII will be on PS3. FFX-2 and FFXII weren't.

So maybe FinalEvangelion's arguments aren't definitive, but they are quite fitting. If he's right about potential and Famitsu's right about actual shipments, FFXII could be slowed by shortages, though.



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ZorroX on 27 September 2009

If MGS4 sold around 500k or almost same as MGS2 and MGS3 in their first week,
with only 2 mln. PS3 onwers.
Why can`t FFXIII do that? The much bigger game.

Probably PS3 will reach over 4 mln.(maybe even 4.5 mln.) userbase during the week of FFXIII release.
so 25% of userbase mean 1 mln. of First week sales will be a minimum for this game.

We have 8 week left, if average PS3 sales will be around 40-50k, then we will have over 4 mln. PS3 userbase by FFXIII release week.

01st Oct 09 Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
01st Oct 09 Shin Sangoku Musou: MultiRaid Special
15th Oct 09 Uncharted: Ougontou to Kieta Sendan
29th Oct 09 Bayonetta
29th Oct 09 Tekken 6
05th Nov 09 3D Dot Game Heroes
12th Nov 09 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast
Nov-Dec 09 Resonance of Fate
Nov-Dec 09 Ratchet & Clank: A Crack in Time
03rd Dec 09 Assassin's Creed II
17th Dec 09 Final Fantasy XIII

The Slim launch with Gundam vs Christmas boost and Huge Game.
PS3 price is by 10k yen lower, than last year, it is now slim and for the first time get a Huge game.



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Johann on 27 September 2009
sc94597 said:
Johann said:
sc94597 said:
Carl2291 said:
sc94597 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
darthdevidem01 said:
sc94597 said:

That seems just about what it should do. I don't expect much legs though. Still great sales for any Jrpg or even console game in Japan. It won't be succeeded as the best selling 3rd party Japanese console game until DQX counting only japan sales

 WW FF13 will outsell DQX 2:1

FF12 sold only 5.11 million WW, on a much larger base, so the likelihood that 13 will be able to outsell DQX 2 to 1 WW is small

_____

DQX = 4.9 Million

FF13 = 9.9 Million

both figures are WW

Outrageous. You can't be serious.

I know. Silly darth. No way DQX will sell that much.

It is much more realistic to believe DQX will do 4.9million if you look at the success of both DQVIII and DQIX than it is for FF XIII when in comparison to the best selling Final Fantasys  Final Fantasy VII, Final Fantasy VIII and Final Fantasy X. Only Final Fantasy VII has gotten close to his prediction, and the other two are off by 2 million. The other two are also later releases in the declining series. The predecessor of FFXIII, FFXII has sold almost half of what Darth is predicting. So yeah.. Which do you think is more likely?

Don't you think DQX's sales will suffer a little bit for not being on the same console that DQIX was released on?

Please go on. Isn't that the case with every Dragon Quest since the snes days and for FFXIII?

Note* I believe that the next Nintendo handheld will be out by the time of Dragon Quest X's release.

I see your point.

And by the way, I was really asking, I wasn't trying to make a point. I know diddly squat about DQ.



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Qual é, Dadinho...?

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sc94597 on 27 September 2009
Carl2291 said:
sc94597 said:
FinalEvangelion said:
Also, for the series has been in a decline argument. Here are total sales since FF7 in Japan

FF7 - 3.93 million

FF8 - 3.64 million

FF9 - 2.8 million

FF10 - 3.29 million (inc. International)

FF10-2 - 2.7 million (inc. Last Mission)

FF11 - Outlier for Japanese sales because MMO

FF12 - 2.42 million


A little bit of a downard trend, but first week sales of usually been 1.8-2 million except for FF8 which was much higher.

Now show world wide sales and you'll notice the difference isn't as minute as you may think.

The thread is about Japan sales.

*Sigh* The context of my post, and the declining argument was in conflict with Darth's comment of World Wide  sales not that of the original topic. I don't know whether or not you read my post, but I don't see how that wasn't observed if you did. I agreed with the OP in my first post of this thread.



Akvod on 27 September 2009

You're a delusional and stupid Sony fanboy blah blah blah (even though you do like Nintendo).



Carl on 27 September 2009
sc94597 said:
Carl2291 said:
sc94597 said:
FinalEvangelion said:
Also, for the series has been in a decline argument. Here are total sales since FF7 in Japan

FF7 - 3.93 million

FF8 - 3.64 million

FF9 - 2.8 million

FF10 - 3.29 million (inc. International)

FF10-2 - 2.7 million (inc. Last Mission)

FF11 - Outlier for Japanese sales because MMO

FF12 - 2.42 million


A little bit of a downard trend, but first week sales of usually been 1.8-2 million except for FF8 which was much higher.

Now show world wide sales and you'll notice the difference isn't as minute as you may think.

The thread is about Japan sales.

*Sigh* The context of my post, and the declining argument was in conflict with Darth's comment of World Wide  sales not that of the original topic. I don't know whether or not you read my post, but I don't see how that wasn't observed if you did. I agreed with the OP in my first post of this thread.

I appologise.



                            

sc94597 on 27 September 2009
Johann said:
sc94597 said:
Johann said:
sc94597 said:
Carl2291 said:
sc94597 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
darthdevidem01 said:
sc94597 said:

That seems just about what it should do. I don't expect much legs though. Still great sales for any Jrpg or even console game in Japan. It won't be succeeded as the best selling 3rd party Japanese console game until DQX counting only japan sales

 WW FF13 will outsell DQX 2:1

FF12 sold only 5.11 million WW, on a much larger base, so the likelihood that 13 will be able to outsell DQX 2 to 1 WW is small

_____

DQX = 4.9 Million

FF13 = 9.9 Million

both figures are WW

Outrageous. You can't be serious.

I know. Silly darth. No way DQX will sell that much.

It is much more realistic to believe DQX will do 4.9million if you look at the success of both DQVIII and DQIX than it is for FF XIII when in comparison to the best selling Final Fantasys  Final Fantasy VII, Final Fantasy VIII and Final Fantasy X. Only Final Fantasy VII has gotten close to his prediction, and the other two are off by 2 million. The other two are also later releases in the declining series. The predecessor of FFXIII, FFXII has sold almost half of what Darth is predicting. So yeah.. Which do you think is more likely?

Don't you think DQX's sales will suffer a little bit for not being on the same console that DQIX was released on?

Please go on. Isn't that the case with every Dragon Quest since the snes days and for FFXIII?

Note* I believe that the next Nintendo handheld will be out by the time of Dragon Quest X's release.

I see your point.

And by the way, I was really asking, I wasn't trying to make a point. I know diddly squat about DQ.

Oh no problem, the site is going slow right now, and I'm pretty much responding in a very non effective way so it may have looked to me that you were arguing that it would sell worst because of being on another console instead of speculating.

 

@Carl I'm sorry as well. I just realised how egotistical and arrogant the tone of my last post was.  I was just getting annoyed with the my post not going through, or taken minutes to get through.