We'll see. I doubt it.

Wii Sports Resort was supposed to cause a large surge in Wii sales too but it never really did. I think what's happened to Nintendo is they have let the system flounder for too long in Japan without major releases and are now going to face an uphill drive and are going to have to work very hard to even get back to selling 25-30k on an average week IMO.

They had great momentum in 2007 and the earlier part of 2008 and let it slip away.

I have some questions about NSMB Wii too ... how long has this game been in development (really?)? Is it being rushed to market? Because it felt like they did that with Animal Crossing on Wii and that game didn't satisfy too many people. NSMB Wii better be a hell of a lot better effort than that. If it feels like basically just a DS game thrown onto the Wii with some new levels, I don't think that's really exciting enough to get people buying the system in droves again. It has to be *great*. 

FF13, you can tell that's a game that's been in development for 3 years and really is going to showcase the PS3 as a system. 

Problem with your argument is NSMB Wii is a very different beast than WSR, WSR was a sequel to a very popular game, so its easy to see that it would bring in fewer new people, because people likely to buy it are those who own the system, although who knows whether it muight do more for the holidays, but that's neither here nor there, with NSMB, its a game that doesn't have much competition on the Wii, there aren't many platformers on the Wii, so NSMB will be able to bring in a whole new group of people, and as we saw with the DS version, there are a lot of people who want a 2D mario.  Also its not just a port, but a new game.

FF13 may be in development for decades, but the FF franchise is in decline, has been for a while, even famitsu sees its sales being mediocre for an FF game, so its not likely to move as many consoles as NSMB.

We'll see if Mario can do what WSR + Monster Hunter Tri + Jet Black Wii combined couldn't do ... get the Wii out of its Japanese doldrums.

I have some doubts that one game alone can do it as well. And it better be a great game, not just a good game.

The stakes are very high for that game.

I think relative to its userbase, Final Fantasy will see a surge on the PS3 because it's the first installment of the franchise with next-generation HD graphics. Much like MGS4 did not sell all that much less than MGS3 in Japan despite the PS3 having a much smaller userbase at that time. I think Famitsu is low balling with their estimates. If MGS4 can sell 700k+, I think FF13, a much bigger franchise coming out at a time where the PS3 is in much better shape can do 2 million+ and move a ton of those FF13 White PS3 bundles with it. 

I feel the PS3 will beat the Wii during the main late December-early January holiday push in Japan (which is the biggest sales period of the year), probably by a decent margin at that. They are obviously going to rout Nintendo in September thanks to the PS3 Slim. 

Okay, I read the entire thread and I really have to go with Wii here. I started out very much undecided, but as I read on it becomes pretty obvious. As far as I can tell the only thing to significantly boost PS3 sales in Japan this year is FF13. Wii's just got so much more going for it.

Plus freaking 2D Mario. Nothing can top 2D Mario.

Soriku - well, those spin-off brought some new Wii users anyway. So effect from ToG and FFCC will be much smaller.
Well, we will see when the time will come.

saicho - yeah, 40k+ would back my expectations.

Avinash_Tyagi - that is why FFXIII demo sold 60k PS3 after 2,5 years since PS3 launch?
FFXIII first HUGE PS3 game in Japan. It will help PS3 a lot.
While Wii already had around 5 huge games, which brought a lot of new users already.
In coming weeks we will see how PS3 and Wii will perform, also Wii Fit Plus effect.

Some VERY rough projections:

Oh man Zoro ur too optimistic. I also fully expect the Wii to hiit 200k+ in the holidays

Well, Wii sales were decreasing year by year, and only because of NSMB i don`t see it doing above 200k. Wii may repeat previous year sales.
It`s PS3 who is a real competitor this year. It`s PS3 who is getting first HUGE game. Slim version effect during Christmas. New affordable price effect during Chrttsmas.

After having 5 huge games on Wii and only 5k pricecut. One huge game and 2 big games, which may bring new sales. Well they will, but only on previous year level sales.

Well all that's left is to see how it goes, i think we've pretty much ran out of arguments :P

  Actually Wii sold great when MH3 was released, but like all JRPG games it was a spike and then a drop off, FF13 will do the same, NSMB on the other hand will give a sustained boost