Well, Wii sales were decreasing year by year, and only because of NSMB i don`t see it doing above 200k. Wii may repeat previous year sales.
It`s PS3 who is a real competitor this year. It`s PS3 who is getting first HUGE game. Slim version effect during Christmas. New affordable price effect during Chrttsmas.
After having 5 huge games on Wii and only 5k pricecut. One huge game and 2 big games, which may bring new sales. Well they will, but only on previous year level sales.