When is thanksgiving? because if it is not in late December then i say absolutely not.
week ending December 6th....Also absolutely not.

The only week the 360 has any chance at all is the last two weeks before christmas and i still think it is a tiny chance even then

last years 360 numbers;
5th Nov 131k
12th 190k
19th 241k
26th 270k
3rd Dec 315k
10th 435k
17th 488k
24th 558k

Thanksgiving is November 22 this year.

There are three factors that make me believe that the Xbox 360 has a outside chance to pass a million. Momentum, value, and software. All of which look to be stronger then last year. Especially considering that the console will now face established consoles rather then shiny new consoles.

Momentum the 360 does have some momentum now. Never underestimate the power of perceived desire. I have heard enough from coworkers, friends, and even strangers that tells me the brand is getting recognized and is generating some hype and demand. Yes the console is selling much better now. The point is the console is generating some decent demand. The same way the PS3 is generating negative demand by way of negative conversations.

Value while the machine is not the best value outright, and frankly I would have loved to see Microsoft get that pro down to three hundred dollars in North America. The machine does have greater value this year rather then last. A price reduction with bundles makes the product more appealing or at the very least feel less like a gamble.

Software call me ancient, but doesn't software matter anymore. I always come from the mindset that games are what matter to gamers. Whether the core gamers can make their presence felt this holiday season is unknown, but the core gamers would probably buy into the Xbox rather then the other two. Am I looking towards a mythical group. Not sure we talked about GTA bringing them out in force a few months ago. Without that game will they not materialize.

Microsoft is making a especially better pitch this year to consumers, and they are not doing it in the midst of two launches. So their is room there the only questions are how great is the momentum, have they reached a good enough value, and will the software bring out the core gamers. Assuming they are not extinct, or wait till the end of a generation to adopt a platform. Nothing illogical there.

I thought I understood the Wii earlier this year, but I am becoming increasingly uncomfortable. I am not sure what is motivating the sales at this point. So I would rather not speculate. I am just getting an ominous feeling about the machine. I feel like I am losing for owning it. Something just isn't right, and I expect the roof to come falling down any minute.

The PS3 I understand damn well why it isn't selling. Nobody wants to pay that much. Get that little. Pay for that feature they did not want in the first place. That is simple to understand. What is hard to understand is how it sells anything in the first place. I suppose its name loyalty, or money to burn not sure which it is at the moment.

Dreamcast. lol Nah, the Wii will, but probaly only one time. The week that includes the day after Thanksgiving.

Dodece, the 360 is indeed doing really well right now. After a bit of a shaky first half of 2007, the console has really had a strong showing in the last couple of months. It's going to have a very strong showing in December, no doubt about it.

But there's a world of difference between those factors and selling a million units - a MILLION! - in a single week. That would be equal to 8.5% of all 360 sales, ever! Craziness. Look at the numbers that TWRoO posted from last year. There was only a single week that the 360 even broke 500k, and that was the week right before Christmas. 558k isn't even remotely close to a million; it's barely even half of that number. The 360 is probably going to sell a bit better this year than last year, but DOUBLE last year's sales?! Absolutely no chance. (Don't forget that the competition from Nintendo and Sony is a LOT stronger this year than last year too!)

In a larger sense, I think many on this site are getting a bit caught up in the 360's current success, and over-estimating its holiday performance as a result. We all knew that Halo was going to be huge, but what everyone underestimated (and still underestimates) is just how big of a factor sports games have played in the 360's recent success. The 360 has clearly become *THE* sports console in the American market, taking over that role from the PS2. Just look at the software sales for this week; half of the 360's top 10 games are sports titles. And pretty much all of the major sports releases come out in the early Fall. You have:

American football/college football
Basketball/college basketball
Soccer
Hockey

Even the racing sports games come out in August (NASCAR)! Combine all those sports games with titles like Halo and Bioshock, and you're looking at what is by far the best two months of the year for the 360. And Microsoft cut the price in August too! No wonder sales are up so much.

My point is that 125k units/week in America is very much NOT the usual average for the 360, but a temporary boosted effect from so many major titles releasing in the same short period. Somewhere around half that number is probably more realistic (which is still quite good). Hitting 1 million sales in a single week would require increasing "normal" weekly sales (probably ~100k worldwide) by a factor of ten. The holidays are a very busy time of the year - but not THAT busy!

I think the ps3 stance a chance if gt comes out this year in japan and with the 40gb ps3 out. Plus you have a lot of people that want a ps3 but cant afford it but their parents my have the money to buy it for christmas.

@ sulla, finally, thank you.

and for pikaboo/rocketpig...anyone that predicts a console will sell more than a million in the week after thanksgiving (which is in November) must also be predicting that the 4/5 weeks after that the same console will continue selling over 1 million.
...the week before christmas is always (launches and supply issues aside) the biggest week of the year for any specific console.

@getrdone, welcome to VGcharts, and i very much doubt it. (My parents certainly wouldn't spend £400 on me at christmas for one thing)

Im going to predict SMG has having a first week of over 2 million sold. Preorders for Japan/America are already at least 1.1 Million. Thats not even including Europe preorders. Not to mention everyone who is going to buy it the first week without a preorder. Then 2 weeks later is Thanksgiving and thus starts the INSANE Wii demand. Either the week after thnxgiving or the week before Xmas. (Or Both). Once again though, supply will need to be there.

NOTE:  Not to mention Wii Fit will be released in Japan, which is expected to pull in millions. 

So, we reach the week that could possibly pull in 1 million Wii's. Who thinks that this weeks data will have the Wii at over 1 million WW? I think it will be close. But I'll stick with 800,000-900,000.

Didn't Ioi state that the Wii sold 600k in the USA in one day? I think 1M is quite likely.