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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will PS3 outsell the Wii in Japan?!!! I THINK SO!!

Carl on 20 September 2009
darthdevidem01 said:

but the more I think about this the more shocking & weird it seems

This generation is really unpredictable......1 year ago who the hell could have thought PS3 would outsell the wii in Japan in 2009 & become the top home console in the country for that year

nothing is going according to what history has shown us!

A lot of people seem to have underestimated Sony and the PS3. And in turn, overestimated Nintendo and the Wii.

One simple rule to take from all of this... Dont underestimate the brand power of PlayStation.



                            

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outlawauron on 20 September 2009

For 2009, it's possible, but unlikely.



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the_bloodwalker on 20 September 2009

I believe it can outsell the Wii at the end of the fiscal year, but it will not dominate overall LTD from here on



Kenryoku_Maxis on 20 September 2009
darthdevidem01 said:

but the more I think about this the more shocking & weird it seems

This generation is really unpredictable......1 year ago who the hell could have thought PS3 would outsell the wii in Japan in 2009 & become the top home console in the country for that year

nothing is going according to what history has shown us!

Its more like this gen is just unpredictaple all around.  The Wii outsells all the other consoles without question even when it has little to offer.  Now when it has tons to offer is when it starts slowing down in sales and all its good third party games won't sell.

And hardly nyone predicted a Sony console would have trouble selling (well, aside from a few of us like me who said it would bomb because of the $600 price).  But now out of nowhere, its selling like hot cakes, and only with a marginal upgrade in its software lineup and two price cuts.

If anything, Japan is being stubborn and only buying games based on name brand recognition and marketing.



Six upcoming games you should look into:

 

  

Soundwave on 21 September 2009

I suspect yeah the PS3 will beat the Wii this winter season in Japan. Sony has been able to take advantage of the Wii's poor third party situation. 

Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus don't bring the "freshness" of their predacessors, so they're not going to stimulate new people to buy into the console as much, which I think is the problem Nintendo is running into.

New Super Mario Bros. Wii will be a monster for Nintendo though.

But FF13 + what I suspect is going to be FF13 bundles (white PS3 slim?) is too much to overcome.

I think Nintendo will have to regroup in Japan next year with the Wii Vitality Sensor, which is something I can see taking off in Japan. But they will need some third party support for next year. 



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Avinash_Tyagi on 21 September 2009

No, not with NSMB Wii coming out, NSMB is bigger than GT and FF, heck it'll be bigger than them combined what with Famitsu predicting only 1.5 million sales for FF13 lifetime in Japan



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Soundwave on 21 September 2009

I think long term this will be good for Nintendo though ... they need a fire lit under their ass, the situation for the Wii in Japan has been unacceptable for almost 2 years now and its been masked by the machines incredible success in the West and the PS3 doing even worse than the Wii in Japan.

They either need to learn to make sure their platform has good third party support in the second and third years of the console life cycle or they need to boost their own internal dev resources to be able to provide more content.

No ifs, ands, or buts. Iwata needs to make sure that this sort of thing cannot happen again. 



Avinash_Tyagi on 21 September 2009

1.5 million FF13 according to Famitsu, 1 million or so for GT5 vs. while NSMB will probably be around 3-5 million, maybe more if its bundled



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Soundwave on 21 September 2009

I'm thinking

2 mill for FF13

3 mill for NSMB Wii

But FF13 will move more consoles.



Soundwave on 21 September 2009
Soriku said:
Soundwave said:

I suspect yeah the PS3 will beat the Wii this winter season in Japan. Sony has been able to take advantage of the Wii's poor third party situation. 

Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus don't bring the "freshness" of their predacessors, so they're not going to stimulate new people to buy into the console as much, which I think is the problem Nintendo is running into.

New Super Mario Bros. Wii will be a monster for Nintendo though.

But FF13 + what I suspect is going to be FF13 bundles (white PS3 slim?) is too much to overcome.

I think Nintendo will have to regroup in Japan next year with the Wii Vitality Sensor, which is something I can see taking off in Japan. But they will need some third party support for next year. 


The vitality sensor I don't see doing much at all. What they need is big games. SMG2, Zelda (if it comes out 2010), Sengoku Basara 3 (multi with PS3 though), Tales of Graces (if it's not in 2009). They also have those October conference games to get out but none of them are big that won't be released in 2009. However, the PS3 and 360 don't have much going for them either unless you think the Sony Wand and Natal will be big in Japan which I don't think the will. PS3 has Versus XIII I guess if they ever decide to get that out and SB3 multi with the Wii, and the 360 has nothing. Not much I can think of. TGS should be telling.

I think the West is going to be a lot more viable though. Japan sales aren't the best nowadays and more devs need to focus on the West. A bigger Western fanbase will do great.

No offense, but in Japan SMG2, Zelda, Sengoku Basara 3 are not big games. I don't know if any of those will hit a million. 

The Vitality Sensor, if its being used as some of device that helps adults/students "de-stress" after work/school, sort of like Brain Training, but more like meditation and relaxation stuff -- that could be *huge* in Japan. 

Japan is a really stressed out society (especially nowadays with the global economic meltdown), so I can see something like that taking off. I could see people who not otherwise buy a game machine buy one for this. 

These weird "non-game" concepts are what got Nintendo this far ... at this point, they have to live and die by them. A new Zelda is not going to get the Wii back on track in Japan, those kinds of games are actually "support" titles. They need a Dragon Quest or Final Fantasy remake from Square-Enix next year too IMO. They gotta get more out of S-E.