Simply ridiculous how much the Wii can destroy the competition! It will depend on how much Nintendo would like to kill on the profit, but they have a lot of things to do, and the right time is just far a month from now. Not to forget all the games you've named!

Nintendo won't meet thier fiscal year projection of 26 million Wii sales without a price drop, however I still don't think we'll see a price drop as sales are still relativly strong for them and Nintendo usually does everything they can to avoid reducing thier revenue and negativly impacting thier profit, even if it means missing thier sales projection by 2-4 million units. A price cut is unlikely till April 2010 at the earliest in my opinion.

What about Wii sports resort bundled for 250? and drop the regular Wii Sports bundled to 199?

It has to happen sooner or later, Wii has sold extremely well at this price point, now its the time to drop it to 199 and inrease the sales. Good games coming out wlll have impact but price cut would simply make Wii dominate once more.

Red Steel 2 -> Looking PRETTY GOOD! This game has potential to sell more Wiis and Motion Plus Units. Because its pretty and has something NEW, the (almost) 1-on-1 swordfight. Unfortunally, it isnt out until 2010

Muramasa -> I played. Its ok. But its a 2d game for a home console. Wont sell well. Wont sell a single new wii unit

Metroid Prime trilogy -> I hope it sells well. I think the metroid prime series is so complex for the regular gamer that i almost cant belive how well the games sold. It may move a few Wii units but not too much: after all, even if its a great package, still old games

Call of Duty: Moder Warfare Reflex -> Why would people buy a new Wii to play an inferior version of Modern Warfare if for the same price they can buy an X360 with the real game??????

They should release new Wii colors instead of dropping the price!

The Blue Ocean Strategy says to sidestep competition and go find new markets

Disruptions says to cater to low tier consumers and then move upsteam with an asymetric value.

Neither are competition (in Disruption's case, competition is based on a different value then the old one). Nintendo is not competitng because they beleive the core market is dead anyway. They will not compete in the old context.

Maybe they will not do something to crush the competition, but if they do something to improve the Wii's sales it will be seen as an aswer to the opponents right? I find it difficult that they believe the core market is dead, they just want to increase the number of gamers finding, as you said, new kind of markets...definitely if they don't announce somthing big for wii (Price cut, new colours, bundles, models...) they'll let me disappointed...

$100 price cut to compete with the Xbox 360 arcade.

As someone else said, Blue Ocean isn't Holy Gospel, Nintendo can and will elastically adjust its plans to contingency, but this said, deciding a rushed cut during Slim launch week doesn't make any sense, they surely planned a cut in every particular, but they'll do it only if really unavoidable.
Let's not forget that Wii is relatively cheap, so as long as it sells well, it better save its possible few cuts for when it will really need it.

This year is too early to make it profitably enough, but maybe next year we could even see a Wii+Balance Board bundle at $250, to finally offer a very affordable full body motion detection solution, that right now is still quite expensive. Being able to count since the beginning on the existing Wii Fit user base, the bundle could start with a huge advantege on Natal and Sony's equivalent solution, if they are released.