I still don't understand any of the hype surrounding Natal. Aside from an interesting way to navigate menus or pick movies, why would anyone care about playing games without a controller? Do you play tennis by flapping your hands? Do you drive a car without a steering wheel? Maybe there are people out there who have deep aspirations to becoming a mime can finally live out their dreams, but I'm not one of those people. I agree that a 16-button controller may be intimidating for some people, but I think the Wii's approach with steering wheels and tennis rackets, where the standard controller fits inside them, is more "natural".
Besides, I can see Natal backfiring when you do some sort of hand gesture to rub it in to a friend after beating them, only to have Natal misinterpret it and either cause you to crash or lob a hand grenade at yourself.
Maybe Microsoft will amaze us all, but I'll believe it when I see it.