freaking metal gear.

I don't want to bash, but I think all those IP's are a waste of time and should be dropped.

Even Kameo, which I love, doesn't have a future because the original was an over-looked launch title. There's no brand power or 'free-hype' to get from Kameo. U can as well make something new and fresh that has a good chance to excite and conquer.

If it is ready MS will definitely want to launch in Sept along with Halo Reach and Fable III to get the double bump from launch and the holidays.

Here is my proposed launch line-up.
79.99 Natal stand-alone with game
149 valhalla arcade w/ 2-4 GB flash- no natal (this SKU might not happen as MS may want to focus only on Natal)
199 valhalla arcade w/ 2-4 GB flash w/Natal and game
299 valhalla elite 250+gb, wireless, Natal and game
Natal launches with 15 games, 2-3 of which are awesome
For holiday, same mix with game bundles

This pretty much has to be their goals for next year. If they meet those goals, then I could see MS taking 1rst place from that point forward for the next 2-4 years.

This is cool and exciting and almost makes me enthusiastic but did you know that Sony has a Wand?

^This!

I think what we're seeing now, and will see with the PS3 Slim, will be indicative of what tactics and results MS will see from NATAL.

I was hoping that Microsoft would release their Slim first. There was every (and I mean every) indication that this August we would get a redesigned console, since Jasper and Falcon had shrunk the dies on major internal components - a major prerequisite for a revision.

However, it never came, but we got the massive NATAL announcement. Of all the predictions I've made over the past few years, this one I am most sure of: NATAL will launch with a slimmer X360 and a massive marketing campaign. It will not look like the current X360. You can ban me if I'm wrong, because I am very certain of this.

So yes, I think that given the fantastic launch of the PS3 Slim, we will see a NATAL/Slim boost console sales by leaps and bounds when it arrives. I think it'll effectively re-launch the Xbox 360 (which will probably be waining by this time next year due to price stagnation), and provide fantastic sales, if not similar to what we're seeing with the PS3 Slim's 500k debut.

This is of course true in an fanboy ideal world where the competitors stay stagnant.

Do you honestly believe Nintendo and Sony are gonna just sit on their asses for the next 2-4 years while MS runs away with natal success - if it indeed proves to be successful.

I am not calling you a fanboy. It is just that the competition doesn't seem to exist in their world.

The prediction includes aggressive competion from S and N.  S or N will have to introduce some heretofore unknown game changer to alter the outcome if MS its the goals above.  There is nothing fanboyish about the prediction.  I used to do long term corporate strategy for a living, and I am extremely good at it.

Leme get this straight.....it's impossible for ps3 to catch the 360 with 8m gap but xbox has a chance of knocking the Wii out of first place with  a 20m+ gap? this is ridiculous.

It depends on if it has a big title or not. I'm thinking Perfect Dark 2 could work, especially after the original releases on XBLA later this year. Oh and just because those other games didn't have killer sales, doesn't mean they should stop making them. I don't think they're big enough titles, but letting them die is something I don't see Rare doing.