Yeah, I'm just wondering how you define flop. I mean, Metroid Prime 3 could be considered a flop, but it has sold very well.

Well, I'm too lazy to check, but here are some games I remember being good and flopped.

Tony Hawk's Downhill Jam

Madden NFL 07

Madden NFL 08

Elebits

SSX Blur

Marvel: Ultimate Alliance

And a lot of these are launch titles, so it's a bit silly.

Now, none of them are really "flops", but take for example Madden, where both 07 and 08 sold less on a console with a far smaller userbase (the PS3).

I don't know if you'd consider these good, but they were definitely above average if memory serves.  

Exactly. Any game that's had serious development effort on the Wii has sold well. For example: Rayman Raving Rabbids and Red Steel. Red Steel may have been a bad game but it wasn't half-assed. Ubisoft was rewarded for the money they invested with very solid sales. RRR was a pretty good game and again not half-assed. Other successful Wii games? How about Resident Evil 4 Wii, whicih has already doubled Capcom's shiping projections and looks like it will hit 1 million lifetime worldwide.

Crappy games sell like crap. Wii owners will tell you that 3rd party games to this point have been less than stellar. If you really want to talk about big games flopping, how about The Darkness with over an 8 on gamerankings flopping on the PS3 or 360. Or maybe Stranglehold flopping when it cost 10s of millions of dollars to make. That's what a 3rd party dev should really be concerned about. Spending 10X the amount of money it takes to make a Wii game to make a PS3/360 game that flops can destroy a company. Midway is already going under largely due to this effect.

I just think it's funny that this is the last resort. Oh, well the Wii may sell the best this generation, but 3rd parties will never make anything for it! Yeah, surely that's why nearly every 3rd party in the industry has claimed the Wii is their primary focus this generation. Surely that's why games like Fatal Frame and Monster Hunter are canceling PS3 and 360 versions in order to be made on the Wii. Surely that's why the Wii is getting more games between now and January than the PS3 and 360 combined (granted most of them cash-ins).

Contrary to the beliefs of many on these forums games aren't made instantly. Developers spend 2.5 to 3.5 years on PS3 and 360 games and 1.5 to 2.5 years on Wii games (except Nintendo who can take up to 3.5 on big games like Smash). If developers decide to change focus in the generation say, 6 months into it, how do you expect to see the results of that only 3 months from this announced shift? For that matter, how do you expect to see results of that a year after that announced shift. If you really understand that little about game development you probably shouldn't hang out on game websites that require detailed knowledge of game production and sales. Honestly the fact that we are starting to see a shift so early in games like Fatal Frame, Monster Hunter, etc. is absolutely astounding, and I never would have imagined we would see results this early.

If MP3 is a flop, every game in existance for the PS3 is also a flop. 

This is true only when X < 2Y.  

Rayman: Raving Rabbids
Metroid Prime 3
Resident Evil 4
Trauma Center
Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
Red Steel
Super Paper Mario
Wario Ware: Smooth Moves

This is a list I quickly compiled of games that fit either of the following descriptions:

1) Represented a significant financial investment

2) Was well recieved critically (for these purposes, I simply took the list of games with a metacritic score over 80)

If I'm missing one, let me know. And now the point: Every single one of these games is (or will be) a million seller, save Trauma Center (Which was still a serious commercial success, as Trauma Center and Cooking Mama are specifically mentioned as saving Majesco as a company) and perhaps Resident Evil 4 (although it may get there -- and it's already doubled Capcom's expected sales). 

So. Anyone? The only games I can think of that remotely fit the descriptions I've mentioned are Madden 08 and Boogie, although neither was well recieved and (presumably) neither was a major investment -- simply because their development cycles were too short to be otherwise. 

If you really need another example of this happening why don't we look at the DS. It spent 2 years of it's life selling on nothing but Nintendo games and the (very rare) good 3rd party game. However, 3 years later comparing the 3rd party support of the DS to the PSP is like comparing the PS2 to the GC. The PSP gets the occasional third party game but the vast majority of support and big games goes to the DS.

I'm not really sure why anyone would expect the Wii to be any different. They both launched with similar developer perceptions and both are outselling their competition in a similar ratio. Except the Wii is doing a much better job of outselling the PS3 and 360 than the DS did for the first year (in which the PSP actually outsold it some 15 weeks or so). Obviously looking at developer actions and statements this shift is happening much faster on the Wii than it did on the DS.

I don't think the PS3 and 360 will be lacking in good games this generation. Heck, the GC wasn't lacking in good games. That's pretty obvious considering it has the best attach rate of any game system of all time. It just doesn't make much sense to expect the 360 and PS3 to have the majority of future 3rd party support in the future.

@Bodhesatva:

I wouldn't even say that Trauma Center or RE4 Wii represented a significant investment; one was a glorified port of a DS game and the other a port of a GC game. They have both exceeded sales expectations because they are quality titles that even managed to take advantage of some of the Wii's unique capabilities, despite being ports. Therefore, it could be said that this proves that there is indeed a market for quality third-party software on the Wii. Key word being "quality".

Do you have any facts to back this up? Otherwise I'm calling this FUD.

Bod: Trauma Center is from Atlus, not Majesco.


SoccerDrew: You said "it looks like their sole savior might be capcom who are making mh3 on wii (and the rest on ps3, 360)."

Uh... Capcom is supporting Wii much more than PS3 and 360. After making Dead Rising and Lost Planet early on for 360, and after a long development cycle for DMC4, it appears the only known 360/PS3 game they've started development on since Wii launched is RE5, which isn't due until 2009. That's 4 total known games, including 2 already released for the HD consoles, and no upcoming exclusives. Meanwhile, they have 3 original, exclusive Wii titles just this Xmas season (2 in America), before MH3, and following the big success of RE4. And Wii is the only next gen console getting versions of their lower profile titles like Harvey Birdman. Capcom is giving Wii tons of support, and it's helping drive the company to financial highs even as EA, Take-Two, and many others not on the Wii bandwagon hit low points.