That logic doesn't always work and this generation things can be all over the place you should know that by now.

Dragon Quest Monsters is still an RPG and it focuses on 'monster collecting'.  And how in the hell is a game not a JRPG because it is aimed at kids and doesn't have a 'deep' storyline?  Your post seems to be leaning towards the view that all JRPGs have to be like Final Fantasy/Tales of Vesperia to be 'JRPGs'.  May I point you to games like Paper Mario, Chrono Trigger and of course, the entire Dragon Quest series.

Logic dictates that a multiplat game would outsell an exclusive game (GTA IV and CoD4 have, with all versions combined, outsold Halo 3, Super Mario Galaxy, etc.), and Final Fantasy has always been a larger seires than Dragon Quest. Dragon Quest was never a massive seller in the West, it sold in Japan, which is a smaller market now than ever before. The PS2 sold 22 million in Japan, the Wii will be lucky to see 15 million, and because hyped games in Japan are usually frontloaded, that won't really be relevant.

DQ10 will sell more in Japan than Final Fantasy XIII, because the series has always done so, and it has a far larger userbase to sell to. However, in America, 360 games sell extremely well, and FF13 is very popular over there. There is also the PS3 version, which will sell less in America, but still a fair bit. Europe is the series' smallest market, but the PS3 and 360 are both popular in Europe.

I would say it's possible for the PS3 version of FF13 alone to outsell DQ10, but that isn't overly likely. Combined with the 360 version's sales, however, it's almost a certainty. DQ8 sold around 5 million WW, the large majority (3.68 million) of which was in Japan. Final Fantasy XII sold 5.1 million, after being the third Final Fantasy of the generation, with just 2.42 million in Japan. 1.82 million sales were in NA where, as I mentioned, the 360 is huge, and NA + EU are far larger markets than Japan now. DQ8 didn't sell badly in the west- around 700k in NA and 600k in Europe, but both numbers are lower than FF12 (Europe only slightly, just over 200k lower), especially the NA numbers.

It's not impossible for DQ10 to outsell FFXIII, stranger things have happened, but it's unlikely. Much like MAG outselling Killzone 2.

I graciously accept defeat at the hands of those who know more about JRPGs than me.

FF13 will be the best selling console JRPG, then.

You are most probably right.

Whoa there :P I was just saying that having it on two consoles isn't going to automatically mean it's going to sell more then other Final Fantasy titles.  If Square doesn't attract new buyers into the series then they're just selling to the same market that might have split up due to the changing of the popularity of the PS brand. I'm sure they'll promote the hell out of it to sell very well in the west but having it on two consoles doesn't give them a free pass to sell more overall.

The reason its still up in the air is because, every FF since FFVII has actually gone down in popularity (sales) in America.  Showing a trend that either the fanbase is getting tired of the games, or the games have a pretty 'solid' fanbase and is not growing (the same 'core' people are buying every game, adding to smaller sales over time).

But the biggest reason why the sales of FFXIII are up in the air is because the game is going to PS3 and 360.  Eventhough its a multiplatform game now, its still on the two platforms that have the smaller userbase.  In Japan, those platforms are virtually non-existant.  And in America, PS3 is struggling.  360 is doing well, but many people might be devided when it comes to buying the game, between wanting to the PS3 version (which already is being said to have added features and graphics) and the 360 version.  All of these factors are possibly going to work against the game, unlike a release like GTAIV which worked to make sure much of the same content was on every game and every system was represented.

TO compound this FURTHER, there's multiple games being released (FFXIII Versus, etc) and its been delayed for far too long.  So the game is going to have lots of confusion and people passing it over for one or another reason.

I believe that they should port the games to other platforms and then the PC, with all the known bugs fixed after a year or so from the initial release on a particular console platform.

Didn't their latest financial report only say they plan on shipping a total of 4 million next quarter. (as in 4 mil lifetime)

Also, yes DQ8 did 1.3 million in America + Others, but the game did have a lot of marketing and it also had the demo for Final Fantasy XII. I only bought it for that demo, and so did many others. I'm sure they can work some kind of pack in to push the game like they did for DQ8.

EDIT: I'd add that I don't think DQ8 is a bad game, but the demo is what drove me to buy it.

I think it isn't as clear as some people make it to be. Dragon Quest could establish itself a bit in the west with VIII, and the DS remakes sure help too for making the name popular. If IX catches fire in the west, X could really outsell FFXIII because FF has been in a decline lately, and although the first one in a generation usually sells the most, the smaller userbase compared to the PS2 probably doesn't help.

So I'm gonna go ahead and say that DQ X outsells the PS3 version of FFXIII w/w, and against both versions it will end up within one million, on one or the other side.