Kantor said:
Logic dictates that a multiplat game would outsell an exclusive game (GTA IV and CoD4 have, with all versions combined, outsold Halo 3, Super Mario Galaxy, etc.), and Final Fantasy has always been a larger seires than Dragon Quest. Dragon Quest was never a massive seller in the West, it sold in Japan, which is a smaller market now than ever before. The PS2 sold 22 million in Japan, the Wii will be lucky to see 15 million, and because hyped games in Japan are usually frontloaded, that won't really be relevant. DQ10 will sell more in Japan than Final Fantasy XIII, because the series has always done so, and it has a far larger userbase to sell to. However, in America, 360 games sell extremely well, and FF13 is very popular over there. There is also the PS3 version, which will sell less in America, but still a fair bit. Europe is the series' smallest market, but the PS3 and 360 are both popular in Europe. I would say it's possible for the PS3 version of FF13 alone to outsell DQ10, but that isn't overly likely. Combined with the 360 version's sales, however, it's almost a certainty. DQ8 sold around 5 million WW, the large majority (3.68 million) of which was in Japan. Final Fantasy XII sold 5.1 million, after being the third Final Fantasy of the generation, with just 2.42 million in Japan. 1.82 million sales were in NA where, as I mentioned, the 360 is huge, and NA + EU are far larger markets than Japan now. DQ8 didn't sell badly in the west- around 700k in NA and 600k in Europe, but both numbers are lower than FF12 (Europe only slightly, just over 200k lower), especially the NA numbers. It's not impossible for DQ10 to outsell FFXIII, stranger things have happened, but it's unlikely. Much like MAG outselling Killzone 2. |
The reason its still up in the air is because, every FF since FFVII has actually gone down in popularity (sales) in America. Showing a trend that either the fanbase is getting tired of the games, or the games have a pretty 'solid' fanbase and is not growing (the same 'core' people are buying every game, adding to smaller sales over time).
But the biggest reason why the sales of FFXIII are up in the air is because the game is going to PS3 and 360. Eventhough its a multiplatform game now, its still on the two platforms that have the smaller userbase. In Japan, those platforms are virtually non-existant. And in America, PS3 is struggling. 360 is doing well, but many people might be devided when it comes to buying the game, between wanting to the PS3 version (which already is being said to have added features and graphics) and the 360 version. All of these factors are possibly going to work against the game, unlike a release like GTAIV which worked to make sure much of the same content was on every game and every system was represented.
TO compound this FURTHER, there's multiple games being released (FFXIII Versus, etc) and its been delayed for far too long. So the game is going to have lots of confusion and people passing it over for one or another reason.
Six upcoming games you should look into:
