JEDE3 is running out of arguments.

It's time you bow down to the king of sales analysis.

You are saying it's better to use customer sales as an indication of what the retailer pays while you don't take sales that the retailer are doing and bargin bins on games that flop into consideration.... then you call yourself the king? Lol.

For this thread it's better to use common sense.

It's mathematically impossible that retailers pay $48 if consumers are paying less than $50 for their PS360 games.

I know very well the retailer figures, but the error the sources do is to reveal only the most costly examples (like "we had to pay $52 for a GTA game once!", thereby not giving a proper representation of reality.

 Can you state any sort of source of give us any credibility as to why you're right and our figures our wrong. I've no interest in ebing right or wrong here - my numbers come from an online video game blog - I just want to get the numbers and figures right for my own interests and am happy to listen to you, but so far you've not given me a reason why your figures are legit.

 Just to add, I work in the UK video games press and have a good idea how the UK retail industry works. It's very possible that how the UK market works is completely different to America and by comparing the two I'm completely going the wrong route. I've yet to have someone tell me who knows better, and can claim to though.

 $48 is a very nice average, and I think is the right figure for most games first shipment. End of the day retailers choose how much of a game they order and they're very good at knowing how much a game will sell and how much to order.

 Random Fact; I don't know if this applies to the USA market (I'm positive it does), but you know those video game charts you see in Gamespot? The 'top 20' games? They're not in order of the best sellers. Hell no, publishers pay to get those slots. Same with the Music retail industry, DVD industry etc.

"Can you state any sort of source of give us any credibility as to why you're right and our figures our wrong. I've no interest in ebing right or wrong here - my numbers come from an online video game blog - I just want to get the numbers and figures right for my own interests and am happy to listen to you, but so far you've not given me a reason why your figures are legit."

Check his post history. I think you'll get a good idea where he gets his figures from. I mean... he said rule of thumb for advertising a game is to take half of the development cost.

I've figured it all out through blog/forum comments like these: http://www.cheapassgamer.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-526.html

And some magazine sources in print.

Well, that's your answer in green. If the game is a $60 game, the first shipment for small retail stores is $48 on average.

- But what about the returns? The special deals when a game underperforms and is over-shipped, a retailer can get a rebate on a future shipment as a compensation, this will bring down the average.

- If first shipment is let's say 60% of a game's lifetime sales on average @$48, but the other shipments are 40% at $40, the average lifetime sales price drops by $3.

- big retail chains and the biggest online stores get cheaper wholesale prices, it's always like that with other wares (electronics and everything). For obvious reasons (negotiation power etc). They say Walmart is 30% of US gaming market (according to the NPD threads here on VGC). Add Bestbuy and Amazon + more online retail and it plays a big role in bringing down the average price further with a few $.

- The following is not affecting FF13, but when speaking of games on average: not all PS360 games are $60. Some cost $50 as new.

So I believe $48 is the typical default list price from wholesale distributor, if the retailer has no special deals. But we're not discussing list price here, we're trying to deduct the average revenue from each copy sold over a lifetime when figuring out if a game breaks even.

My side note: people on this site even ignore bundled copies - they'll calculate Uncharted as 2.5 million x $35 and believe the game made huge profit, ignoring the fact that Sony/Naught dog didn't get a dime from the 1 million copies that were bundled with a PS3 console. 

If they make 25$ per game at the price of 60$, then the PS3 alone needs 4M sold to break even at a dev cost of 100M. If they make more than 25 then awesome.

I think they'll do just fine.

 Well everything here sounds in-line with what I'd suggest for the UK market and adds up right. I don't think we've disagreed on anything so it's nice to see we both are right ;).

 Perhaps where there was some discrepency is you're trying to broadcast figures, as you say, that don't apply to a game like FFXIII when this thread is about FFXIII. I mean this more beyond then just beyond the games retail price - Publishers know when they're game will make big bucks for a retail just as first hand sales, and they'll squeeze every penny (cent? :P) out of the retail market for what it's worth. You can bet Take 2 made more then $48 (neglecting costs) off of every GTAIV sale, same with Konami and MGS, Capcom and Resdient Evil etc. I'd assume this was more a negotiation on the sort of marketing / store placement issues I addressed earlier.

Not advertising, but marketing as a whole, dummy (including the developers flying around all over the world on game shows, giving interviews etc, sending promo material to magazines, websites, making trailers, TV, magazine, web site ads etc). Half was overexaggerating, but it's still a better 'rule of thumb' for simplicity in comparison to the false misconceptions that flow around on these forums. In Halo 3's case the marketing actually cost a lot more than the development of the game.

I dont know, maybe 30-35% is a better rule of thumb. How should I know, these numbers arent official. But we have to assume something, everyone does that. And you are not very constructive, you just mock and laugh while contributing nothing. But I dont see you protesting when the others suggested $5 millon and other laughable figures for big games like Motorstorm, Uncharted and Resistance.