The maths in the OP would suggest the opposite of what you are saying.

To outsell the 360 with the same lifespan, the PS3 needs to start outselling it now, as in within the next month. It will, of course, because there's a price cut and a Slim in two weeks, but more importantly, it needs to keep outselling it now, and assuming they both sell until 2014 (8 years), the PS3 NOW needs to start outselling the 360 by 36,000 copies a week (average) and continue doing this for the next five years. Without stopping.

I think, actually, one year of its lifespan lasting longer than the 360 would bring the gap to zero. If you look at it, even the current gap could be closed with a year of PS3 sales with a discontinued 360, and if the PS3 does continually outsell the 360 for a period of time, then the gap would reduce, perhaps to, say, 4 million, and the PS3 could easily sell that in a year.

It could go either way. Microsoft intends to keep producing the 360 as long as the PS3 is produced, which is as long as people are willing to buy the console, so really, they don't have any control over it. If the PS3 sells more than the 360 on a weekly basis (by a significant amount, not this 10k a week stuff), it will have more momentum, and more lasting appeal, will be on shelves for longer, and will sell more.

As for the granny Xbot, Squilliam doesn't like people talking about his grandmother- he is ashamed of her love for the 360, right, Squil?

If the PS3 is soooooo slow to develop for, shouldn't we be seeing a lot of 360 timed exclusives? Surely Modern Warfare 2 would take at least another year to make for PS3, right? Why isn't that a 2010 title? Come to think of it, why is it on PS3 at all, since the PS3 clearly doesn't sell Call of Duty and needs a price cut so it's cheaper than the price Mr. Kotick plans to sell games for?

Activision sucks.

Sorry, what was the thread about again?

such a stupid post. Consumers do not care about a game being 1st, 2nd or 3rd party. Don't you get it? MS secures exclusive content, thats all the customer sees. Do you really think the PS2 was that successful because of Sonys great 1st party games? Hell no!

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=PS2&publisher=&genre=&minSales=0&results=50&sort=Total

Except Gran Turismo, there is ONE 1st party game in the top30 of the PS2 and thats EyeToy. Or including Gran Turismo, there are only 5 1st party games in the top 50. The 3rd party support was the thing that made the PS2 big. And thats what MS took.

And I know, that MW2 and FF XIII are multiplat, but it adds up to a nice library of games anyway.

And why are you saying Alan Wake won't be a huge seller? Could happen, who knows? But why are you mentioning InFamous and R&C? One did not sell well and one won't sell well.

InFamous is at 0.72 million, which is not an awesome success. Crackdown sold 1.51 million and you are saying the sequel won't be a huge seller. You are applying double standards right here.

So: The lack of games won't be the reason the Xbox360 gets discontinued. They might discontinue it in 4 years from now or whatever, nobody here knows, but the lack of games won't be the reason for it.

A hard drive size increase isn't going to combat the current most anticipated game in Japan, Sony's best selling series, a price cut and a Slim. Indeed, with that combination, the PS3 had better be winning by a huge amount. And it will, if Microsoft doesn't counter with something more than "Look our hard drive is bigger now!"

The NATAL 360 rumour isn't nearly as common as the PS3 Slim rumour, which is EVERYWHERE. Price cuts on current models to clear stock, hell, even adverts for the Slim. And what if it does launch? Well, it depends entirely on the price. If it's bundled for FREEEEEEEEEEE with all 360s, then bye bye PS3. But it won't be will it? All we know at this point is that it's "Less than $200". How many casuals are going to spend $200 on a console, then another $150 on a special camera when they can get the Wii for $250? Neither HD Twin will ever have the casual appeal of the Wii, because the Wii is famous among their casual circles, and Oprah likes it. Microsoft is doing a fantastic job with it, but really, most people won't end up caring. It'll do better than the PSMotion wand, but that won't be much of an achievement, really.

I explained in my previous post how simple it is for the PS3 to outsell the 360 (I didn't say likely, I said simple), because what Kowenicki is assuming is that they will be discontinued on the same day. Sure, Microsoft says the 360 will last one day longer than the PS3, but who decides that? The company, or the consumers? If the PS3 starts leading in weekly and monthly sales enough for it to be considered the "popular console" when this gen starts slowing down in 2012-2013, it'll have a longer lifespan, and will outsell the 360. If, however, it does not, and the 360 lasts as long or longer, the 360 has won.

And you know as well as I do that the people making silly predictions will never eat crow, even if it's barbecued (delicious, crispy on the outside, tender on the inside), they'll claim they never said such a thing. Look at Killzone 2, from both sides.

And I don't see how this is a pro-MS topic. It's simple numbers and facts, with a little arithmetic. Saying "ROFLOLOLOL SHITSTATION WILL NEVER CATCH THE 360 CUZ IT SUX AND DOESN'T HAVE HALO!" would be a pro-MS topic.

The maths in the OP is predicated on PS3 needing to overtake the 360 on an arbitrary date WHILE the 360 is still on the shelves. Ergo the OP requires the PS3 to outsell the 360 with 1 year less shelftime. So no, the OP is not suggesting the opposite. However I wasn't addressing the OP I was addressing your post which was talking about same lifespan and that is a different context to the OP. If you want to make a prediction about sales with the same lifespan then you need to allow for the PS3 to sell for a year after 360 discontinues. And if, as in your post, you say the PS3 would need up to 2 years greater lifespan then you are talking 3 years of sales after the 360 discontinues. And in response I'm saying the PS3 only needs to sell more or less on par with the 360 for the rest of the 360's life in order for the PS3 to eliminate the gap in the year following 360's end; assuming the PS3 has enough gas in the tank to continue selling for that long.

One one thing your first post is right though, it's the consumer who will decide how much gas the PS3 tank has. Sony can still do a lot to influence the consumer of course.

Based upon this new information, and Microsoft's tenacity, I think the 360 can wheather a significant price cut for the PS3 and still win this generation handily for as long as the 360 stays on the market, at least.

I hope Blu Ray was worth it.

I will come back to you next year when the gap no longer exists , lol. You think you've seen true PS3 sales....oh boy, you're in for a surprise.

The thing is that pepole base PS3 comeback not on sells in the long run, but on the massive boosts it will get from price cut, FF13 and GT5.