360 and PS3 sales..

[binary solo]

Kantor said:

binary solo said:

I think your maths might be a bit off there Kantor. IF PS3's lifetime is 2 years longer than the 360 (e.g. 720 launches / 360 discontinues in 2011 and PS4 launches / PS3 discontinues in 2014) then PS3 is guaranteed to sell a lot more consoles at end of life.

The maths in the OP would suggest the opposite of what you are saying.

To outsell the 360 with the same lifespan, the PS3 needs to start outselling it now, as in within the next month. It will, of course, because there's a price cut and a Slim in two weeks, but more importantly, it needs to keep outselling it now, and assuming they both sell until 2014 (8 years).

The maths in the OP is predicated on PS3 needing to overtake the 360 on an arbitrary date WHILE the 360 is still on the shelves. Ergo the OP requires the PS3 to outsell the 360 with 1 year less shelftime. So no, the OP is not suggesting the opposite. However I wasn't addressing the OP I was addressing your post which was talking about same lifespan and that is a different context to the OP. If you want to make a prediction about sales with the same lifespan then you need to allow for the PS3 to sell for a year after 360 discontinues. And if, as in your post, you say the PS3 would need up to 2 years greater lifespan then you are talking 3 years of sales after the 360 discontinues. And in response I'm saying the PS3 only needs to sell more or less on par with the 360 for the rest of the 360's life in order for the PS3 to eliminate the gap in the year following 360's end; assuming the PS3 has enough gas in the tank to continue selling for that long.

One one thing your first post is right though, it's the consumer who will decide how much gas the PS3 tank has. Sony can still do a lot to influence the consumer of course.