well he's psyhcic and your not. ps3 sales wont come near the wii for the next 2 years atleast.

HD-DVD could disapear (and the other new one that just came out.)

Blu-Ray still wouldn't capture a majority of the market share.

Blu-ray won't pass DVD until a movie developer steps up and cuts back on their DVD production. They arn't going to do that until Blu-Ray adoption is higher though because they don't want to be the first ones to get bad press for abandoning the DVD format when it has a huge percentage lead.

Blu-ray won't get a high enough percentage until the movie companies make the first move.

So it's really a bit of a paradox. Sony studios could make the first move in that regard but i think it'd end up hurting them more then helping.

In 2004 and 2005 VHS cassettes for new and classic movies were still being produced (although they were not being sold in most stores) ... it took nearly 10 years from the time DVD was released before movie studios stopped producing VHS cassettes. Being that it may be reasonable to expect that people will take longer to adopt to Blu-Ray or HD-DVD than they were with DVD it may be 2015 before DVD is fully phased out.

Btw, my argument earlier in the thread was that HDTVs would become mainstream by 2009, not HD movie formats.

Ah, well then I agree I guess.  Well, I'd say they will be the most comon TV type by 2010.  However, it again really doesn't affect much.  It's only a very small percent of the population that really understands media technology.  My dad bought a 50" plasma just because it was big.  He has no idea what 1080p is.  He just wanted a big TV with clearer picture.  That's what most of America is/will be buying.  They aren't buying an HD upgrade, just larger TVs.  Also, like most people with HD TVs he just uses DVDs and has no knowledge or interest in Blu-ray or HD-DVD.  

John Lucas 

That's very strange: i don't see why an HD set would not display 480i the right way... it's impossible to see any difference: whatever your TV may be, it will always be the same 480i definition...

On another hand, you may watch your "regular" DVDs upscaled in 720p (Pioneer and Denon have some of the best DVD players on the market...)

I use that, with an HDMI connection to a Sanyo projector, and the results are amazing: no need to buy an expensive HD-DVD or Blue Ray player, plus another brand new and expensive DVD collection (once again)...

And with the Wii, 480p on my large screen looks awesome too... not perfect, maybe, but i prefer to buy more games and more "cheap" DVDs, instead of an expensive and overhyped HD set-up...

It's the same thing with Hi-Fi: of course, if you're an audiophile, you may have a perfect set-up, but it will cost you... $10.000, $20.000?

When for $1000 to $2000, you may find something excellent, with a 90% quality compared to the expensive option: i don't think the 10% more in audio quality are worth thousands of dollars... but each his own, of course...

200K a week for PS3... u must be joking me... hahaaha funny guy...

As I see it the biggest stumbling block for HD adoption is not the greatness of the features the wuality of the picture or the Flatness of the monitor.... it's the start-up cost.

Think about it, in order to fully adopt either HD format you're looking at spending over or near $1500 for the cheapest models of television and players. Even you if you bought the PS3 you're looking at $800 to $1000 for the TV. Another $399 for the console (if you buy the shitty 40GB model), an additional $100 in accessories and component cables. and to top it all off an aditional $10-$15 per movie that you want to buy and then the government takes another 7-10% of the purchase price out of your wallet. Or if you rent expect to be gouged by $2-$4 dollars per HD rental (if your local rental shop even has them). In short, your talking about $1600-$2000 start-up minimum, not to mention an indeterminate amount of additional money per month over DVD in rentals and movie purchases.

This level of start up is not feasible for a good majority of households right now. According to wikipedia (not the most reliable source but I'm too lazy to find others) the average household income is 48k or roughly 4,000 a month. Taking into account a mortgage payment, utilities, car payment, car insurance, cost of eating food, gasoline consumption, health insurance costs and other necessities, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who has $2000 extra lying around to spend on full conversion imeadiately.

Notice I said this was an average, if you read further into the wiki article you find that the likley hood of full conversion becomes less feasible as it shows a table of income broken up into fifths with the lowest 3/5 earning less than $34,000 a year. That's 60% of housholds in the US!

What ends up happening when families do convert to HD, is that they might buy the TV or the PS3 this year for Christmas or Tax-return. Then the following year they may buy the player or the TV, if they don't have something else they want that suppercedes luxury.

Until the cost of Full conversion comes down another 30%-40% you can expect the number of people adopting these things to be restricted to videofiles, single people (who don't have money consuming vices; i.e Women, booze, drugs, or gambling), couples without children and the top 20% of Americans. In the best case scenario that leaves only 35% of Americans total.

 +1000 lol....