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Kasz216 said:
HD-DVD could disapear (and the other new one that just came out.)

Blu-Ray still wouldn't capture a majority of the market share.

Blu-ray won't pass DVD until a movie developer steps up and cuts back on their DVD production. They arn't going to do that until Blu-Ray adoption is higher though because they don't want to be the first ones to get bad press for abandoning the DVD format when it has a huge percentage lead.

Blu-ray won't get a high enough percentage until the movie companies make the first move.

So it's really a bit of a paradox. Sony studios could make the first move in that regard but i think it'd end up hurting them more then helping.

In 2004 and 2005 VHS cassettes for new and classic movies were still being produced (although they were not being sold in most stores) ... it took nearly 10 years from the time DVD was released before movie studios stopped producing VHS cassettes. Being that it may be reasonable to expect that people will take longer to adopt to Blu-Ray or HD-DVD than they were with DVD it may be 2015 before DVD is fully phased out.