I don't see Nintendo and Sony dropping out soon...

While I wouldn't agree, I could at least understand someone arguing that Sony would be "the only company producing a next generation console" if they meant that Sony would be the only company producing a conventional console in the next generation; and using the argument that the Wii (and consoles that follow a similar strategy) could not be considered "Next Generation" consoles.

Saying that Nintendo would become a third party publisher is a lot like saying that Apple would abandon producing iPods in order to focus on producing applications for other mobile devices. Its a (remarkably) silly idea because Nintendo could have a "Fall from grace" that is far larger than Sony's (with the PSP and PS3) and, because of their conservative business strategy, they would still be better of financially as a console manufacturer than a third party publisher. While I can't be certain of their strategy, if I was Nintendo I would be looking to make their next generation handheld and consoles be heavily interconnected in ways that consumers desire as a way of "Locking People Into" the Nintendo brand ... and to truely capatalize on this, I suspect Nintendo would need to release a new system.

Microsoft's share holders can (probably) not be happy with the ammount of money "wasted" on the XBox line of products, but Microsoft has seen enough success with the XBox 360 for most of the executives to be encouraged by its performance. Microsoft's main problem with profitability this generation is that their costs were too high (across the board) and there are several steps they can take in the next generation to control costs to see high profitability. Knowing this, it seems unlikely that Microsoft would choose to leave the market when they can see success.

Having flashback to the "I'm a Wii, and I'm a PS3" Viral video:

OP is totally clueless! But still he argues. Actually so much wrong with OT i don't even know why i've bothered replying. Oh, yes, OP look at some of the profiles of the posters on this thread. Some of them who don't agree with you are .... shock... horror... Ps3 owners!

@ OP

Here, read these articles. I'm sure you will find them interresting. They are written by someone who tries to understand Nintendo, and he does a very good job of explaining how they think. (He also predicted the Wii's sucess before it launched)

I know you said you won't post in the thread but please check these out.

http://malstrom.50webs.com/

http://seanmalstrom.wordpress.com/2009/05/14/why-nintendo-is-always-doomed/

Solidpumar said:

The *facepalm* posts were neither nice nor constructive, but when posting outrageous claims with only unclear reasoning and without fleshed out arguments that is what you can expect. I have to say, these quotes above taken together comes off as whining. It's not so much the phrases themselves, as their frequency (almost every post contains one) and the fact that you have not really met a single of Onyxmeth's argument in any satisfactory way. Arguing with you does not lead to anything but you whining, it seems.

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A major source of income for Nintendo (as well as Sony and Microsoft I assume) has always been the licensing fees from 3rd party games. In the SNES days it was around $10 per per game (I think), but I'm not sure what they are today. The Gamecube (at 22 million) shipped over 200 million games. And that's Nintendo's least successful console ever. I guess around half that figure is Nintendo's own games, so that would mean they got around $1 billion (assuming licensing fees are still the same) WITHOUT LIFTING A FINGER. Assuming the console and the 1st party games all just break even, this would still be pure profits.

This money is not something they can easilly make up if they go third party. That and they have no control over the hardware, which means they cannot make the games they want. They also have no control over peripherals, by that I mean that they can not make 'official' peripherals, which is a huge part of their current business model.

People have always bought Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games. If you want Nintendo games, you buy a Nintendo console/handheld. That's why 1st party titles sell such huge amounts. There really is no reason to believe that Nintendo game sales would skyrocket, or even profit from, being on Microsoft and Sony platforms.

When you are on a roll, like they are now, radically changing your business model to something completely different is not advisable. That's what you do when things are slowing down or starting to turn for the worse. ... Like Sony, that has run into huge losses with their latest iteration of Playstation. They invested a lot in technology that, according to sales, the customers do not really want or need. If anyone needs to rethink their strategy, it's Sony.

Edit: Meow! I like... SO missed the second page!

See, that's the thing. No matter how 'advanced' Sony and Microsoft's motion controllers will be, it would be TOO HARD for normal people who don't play games that often to get into. You said complexity and way more advanced, and that's what drove new video game consumers from the HD consoles to the Wii; it would be graphics, console cost and the difficulty of certain games. People want something to play and have fun with, not something that's complicated and takes too long to play. That is why the Wii-remote looks like a television remote, which is why it's simple to pick up and play.

And Sony isn't winning anything. Not in the MMO (if you consider Free Realms an MMO, even if it is, I wouldn't touch something that looks like a cheap knock off for an MMO), as Microsoft, Activision-Blizzard and Square-Enix own most of it.

Fanboys. Ugh.

More likely than not, Sony will drop out and Nintendo would keep kicking ass. There's no way the odds of a PS4 are 75%. I'd peg it at something more like 10%. The way Nintendo and MS have just been molesting Sony and the way Sony's been losing money in ALL their divisions, plus the encroachment of Apple and Samsung, it's impossible for any sane individual to actually think that a PS4 is likely.

This is even more insightful than the OP... The real kicker is the first word. Followed by the second.

I find it VERY unlikely that Sony will make a new console. I loved the PS1 and PS2, but they've just broken my heart with the PS3 and I don't think I, or any other lovers of the previous two, can take anymore.