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Forums - Sales - Sony blew it with 40 gb sku (IMO). Sales predictions.

TWRoO said:
i want to know whether it will explain things like this on the box, then i will give predictions....i mean is the average consumer going to walk into a store and see two different prices with only the HDD space mentioned on the box?

there should be a big orange sticker saying "doesn't play PS2 games" on it.

 If they do not do something like this I expect in at least the States for them to get some bad press in the non-gaming media.  Nothing major but I think you will see an editorial somewhere from someone telling how they bought their kid one and found out they had purchased something other than what they had thought they bought.  Though I think if I was them I would acutally send stickers to put on the old ones that say "Backwards compatible to PS2" instead of putting the negative ones on the new units.  It would be a more positive spin on the change.



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Dodece said:
You cannot look at the situation as a vacuum. This price cut will probably not have the same kind of impact that a bundle or a price cut would have had in the summer months.

The first problem is the price is still quite high for a gaming console even with the cuts. We are not talking about the console entering any competitive price range. Sure there has been an improvement on that front, but in reality its still a very expensive machine with questionable value.

The second problem is what the competition is doing. What software are they putting out. How strong is their marketing. Have they momentum. Have they positive word of mouth. Microsoft is taking sales away from Sony, and due to their immediate lineup it stands to reason the sales they are taking will increase rather then decrease. We also must consider whether Microsoft will respond with a bundle for their system. That could be only a matter of two or three weeks away.

The third problem is the new sku itself. Will it generate any hesitancy. Sure consumers might avoid the model due to its short comings, but even so will it place greater doubt in the mind of consumers. Consumers do not like to gamble to that extent usually. They start feeling skittish about the consoles future, and they might avoid it. We all have expressed concern about the PS3s future to one degree or another. By this point the concern has to be reaching the general public.

The fourth problem is confusion. All it will take to drive down sales is a small amount of confusion. Someone tells you that the PS3 does not play PS2 games anymore, and you might just believe them. Sony has to ensure they convey the fact that their will be a backwards compatible machine to the general public. However they have iced that by saying they will not support it once the current crop of high end PS3s has sold out of the market. I think the fear could counteract the fear as it were. Fear you will not get the feature might be counteracted by the fear that the console will fail without the backwards compatibility.

The fifth problem is timing. Too early for the machines to be holiday presents, and too late in the year for them to be self purchases. This is a time with low disposable income being that consumers have to think towards holiday shopping. Will be spending more on necessities. The timing could be very critical. Two months folks time to turn your eyes to heating costs, and holiday shopping. When you have major expenditures on the horizon you become more frugal not less.

For all the above reasons I feel the sales will not deviate markedly from their current numbers. There is so much that should be driving demand down. The competition, confusion, timing, price, and concern over the health or longevity of the product might counteract the price drop. With no games driving renewed interest, and the other guys winning on the other fronts its a serious question whether this new pricing scheme can actually make a dramatic impact. Perhaps during the holiday season itself, but that is at the least a month away perhaps two.

  1. You forget that this is EU's 1st price cut... Price cut will definitely help..
  2. Theres no question that microsofts software lineup is stronger right now. but there is also no question that the pricecut will help Combat that.
  3. This is the EU territories we are talking bout.. they got the short end of the stick to begin with in terms of backward compatible.. i hate to say but if theyve been able to hang this long with a 55% BC capable machine then id be willing to bet that to majority it isnt an important feature..
  4. ps3 hasnt even been out over there for 8 months.. sony is just being sony by saying that they are getting rid of the 60.. we all know they are probably gonna come out with something new for the EU territory since they never even sniffed the 20 or 80gb...
  5. how could it be the wrong timing cutting costs  right before the holidays is wrong?? so i guess potential buyers would want them to wait then huh?? holiday sales are a wave that start from september january

 

there are so many things that could be driving the 360 sales down... Warranty issues, Hardware issues, confusion on sku's, xbox720 in 2 years maybe?? competition...but that console is doing good right now..

i agree that potential buyers have alot to worry about but dont act like the ps3 is the only console like that... you know what im learning though.. that most people dont care.. Give them a cheaper ps3 that is capable of giving them a good gaming experience and those people wont care.. thats the hard part that sony has to do.. software lineup for this holiday could be better but its definitely not the worst in the world..



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smallflyingtaco said:
TWRoO said:
i want to know whether it will explain things like this on the box, then i will give predictions....i mean is the average consumer going to walk into a store and see two different prices with only the HDD space mentioned on the box?

there should be a big orange sticker saying "doesn't play PS2 games" on it.

 If they do not do something like this I expect in at least the States for them to get some bad press in the non-gaming media.  Nothing major but I think you will see an editorial somewhere from someone telling how they bought their kid one and found out they had purchased something other than what they had thought they bought.  Though I think if I was them I would acutally send stickers to put on the old ones that say "Backwards compatible to PS2" instead of putting the negative ones on the new units.  It would be a more positive spin on the change.


yes i was joking about the bright orange stickers, but they should put it in writing on the box, and adding stickers to PS2 compatible is a pretty good idea.



i dont mind putting my PS2 in the cupboard, and taking it out to use occasionally, it will matter less as time goes on.

the average/casual gamer doesnt care about BC, only the hardcore gamers do.



darthdevidem said:
the 20GB failed because of NO WI-FI!

No WIFI is MUCH worse than no BC

I wouldn't be playing online today if I had the 20GB

I thought the reason behind the "20 GB model's failure" was the hole in the sony's pocket, not the lack of demand...

And no, WiFi is not important, there is a bigger market with PS2 games which will love to see them in their PS3 (Upscaled if is possible), just waiting for more PS3 games...

€399 is not a bargain and not everybody are going to buy one with a game or two...

But that is the plan, buy the 40Gb version, and you "must buy" a couple of PS3 games or PS Store content, since you can't play your old PS2 games...

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wifi was a waste.... its slow and laggy for online play, ethernet is still the way to go.

BC is a major must, it hurt that the 360 wasnt BC complete. it pushed back my purchase of one for almost a year, i have 8 xbox games that are not 360 capable, 2 of which i bet never will be (the last update suprised me and added 4 new games)

I play xbox games about once a week mercinaries, halo 2, halo, hitman all 3 last gen versions, splintercell, ghost recon, battle field, driver both versions.



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goddog said:
wifi was a waste.... its slow and laggy for online play, ethernet is still the way to go.

BC is a major must, it hurt that the 360 wasnt BC complete. it pushed back my purchase of one for almost a year, i have 8 xbox games that are not 360 capable, 2 of which i bet never will be (the last update suprised me and added 4 new games)

I play xbox games about once a week mercinaries, halo 2, halo, hitman all 3 last gen versions, splintercell, ghost recon, battle field, driver both versions.

 Warhawk runs lag free for me on wi-fi.  Sure, I can only host 4 player games max because of my slow upload speed, but I can join any size games and everything runs smooth as butter.



I am really curious to see how much the PS3 40 GB will sell.






Optimism can be a dangerous beast. We need not look far to get a good parallel for what will happen. We saw it just a few months ago in North America. Further more Europe is not getting the cherry of a deal the North American consumer got. They are not even getting it in a good context. This new sku and price drop are coming at a economically conservative time of year. Further more they are dropping in the middle of a Microsoft steam roller. Finally there are legitimate concerns about the viability of the platform and the hardware. Were there a time for consumers to be skeptical about the PS3 in Europe that time would be now.

I see a lot of posters being overly, and often being unrealistically optimistic. Many of them found a meat grinder at the end of the Sony bundle offer. Many of them found a barren wasteland a month after the price cut in North America. While price is a issue, and might hold some consumers off of making a purchase. There are other concerns, and this new sku only multiplies those concerns. Sony still has to sell this to consumers. We cannot adopt a philosophy that the consumers are already sold. You have to ask yourself what would make a person want to buy a PS3 now rather then waiting a few months or even a year if price has been such a issue for them up until this point.

All the issues I raised are valid questions, and this is not a time such as the summer where these things can be viewed in a vacuum. What the other guys do has a significant impact on whether the sales increase rapidly, stay the same, or decrease. Someone has to put a lead weight on the balloon of expectations. Too often this year these heightened expectations have fizzled out. I suspect because people getting their hopes up did not ask the hard questions.