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Forums - Sales - WIll DQIX Outsell PS3's Install Base in Japan WEEK 1??!!

Steroid said:
nordlead said:
psrock said:
nordlead said:
@thesource

double your employee costs. They may have an average salary of 60k, but you didn't add benefits and other overhead costs. So probably closer to $20m if it was truly 50 people over 3.5 years.

@slightly off topic

the thread title right here is why they shouldn't have made FFXIII for PS3. FF does exceptionally well, but the PS3 install base is actually limiting potential sales. Maybe it will cause a huge boost in PS3 hardware, but if it doesn't you are pretty much guaranteed that it cost them a lot of sales.

Th problem with your argument is just FFXIII will sell more than DQIX since its only popular in JAPAN. Square dealt with that problem by making it the game multiplat in more popular markets.

I wasn't talking worldwide sales, I was only talking Japan Sales. However, SquareEnix didn't know the PS3 wasn't going to be the dominant console when they started work on the game.

@steroid - I never said games should only be on the DS, but if you have a game that you want to sell 3m units in a region you don't release it on a system that only has 3m units sold in the region. But as I said above, they started development before they new how the PS3 would do.

Care for a freindly wager? PS3's install base will go up by at least a million the month FF13 comes out. That's what system sellers do, they sell systems. And no other game besides Dragon Quest sells as many Systems as Final Fantasy in Japan.

 

Why should SE care about the number of PS3 sold? Charity? Nomura? Or to sell FFXII. They made it easier... multiplatform it is ;)

BTW... 1 milion marked ;)



     

 

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TheSource said:

Even if it cost $20 million to make the game will probably still net over $100 million in profit.

Pick a number. 50 Full Time staff working on it for three years and six months at an average of $60,000/employee...$10.5m. The engine, cartridges, etc probably add a couple million more. But I don't think its much more than that.

Most staff members at game companies don't get payed real well.

I'm not doubting it's going to make a ridicoulous amount of money. It will.

I just felt the need to interject a little about budgets of certain games. Regardless of platform, a long development time will guarantee a very expensive game. 



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PS3 will do something like 125k when FFXIII comes out. DQIX is going to have a bigger openining for a cheaper system but I still only expect DS to do 175k. But a 1m boost in Japan is absurd. The PS3 base may only be 3.6m or so when FFXIII arrives. One game doesn't give you a 30% base boost.



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TheSource said:

PS3 will do something like 125k when FFXIII comes out. DQIX is going to have a bigger openining for a cheaper system but I still only expect DS to do 175k. But a 1m boost in Japan is absurd. The PS3 base may only be 3.6m or so when FFXIII arrives. One game doesn't give you a 30% base boost.

I think he is hoping for the PS3 slim or a major pricecut. Along with a bundle.

Otherwise... as you say, it will NOT stand the chance to hit a million in release month.



                            

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Absolutely impossible.

People are overestimating the possible sales of Dragon Quest IX. It is true that NDS install base is a lot bigger than PSX or PS2 but at certain quantity this factor becomes irrelevant because the key factor is the fanbase. Let's take a look at Final Fantasy X sales, with a much lower install base it outsells Final Fantasy XII, the same with other chapters.

Anyway it will probably become the best selling title, but we cannot expect over 3 million units in its first week, actually two days because the game is released on Saturday.



I haven't seen anyone predict over 3m, but if the 2.0m figure isn't rounded up, I don't consider up to 3.0m impossible especially since there are two days left to preorder the game. I'm expecting 2.7m week one, which is more like 1.8m day one, 900k day two.



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TheSource, are we sure the pre-order numbers reported are from actual customers pre-orders or are retailers pre-orders? I remember Sony saying they had one million GT5P pre-orders in just Europe.



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Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

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If the preorder number is correct then we can predict that the game could sell 2.3-3 million units in its first week. I see no reason why it can't open better than 8 did. Also DS games tend to have decent legs. It could sell 500k to 1 million the following week. Lifetime sales could be 4-5 million. It is a real shame dragon quest hasn't caught on in western markets.

 

So no it won't outsell the PS3 by week one. It will though by week 2.



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outlawauron said:
TheSource, are we sure the pre-order numbers reported are from actual customers pre-orders or are retailers pre-orders? I remember Sony saying they had one million GT5P pre-orders in just Europe.

Japan is retailers.

 

Also, @the Source, did you consider the new red dsi that is releasing in the 175k numbers for the week? Putting both together will raise the sales higher than that imo.



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