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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next-gen console war: The verdict by mcvuk.com

DMeisterJ said:
I don't think he is a sony fanboy W29 but his predictions may hold true. As we can now see, the demand for the wii, at least in Japan, has been tapering off as has the DS. Also, as we saw with the price drop/fire sale for the PS3 this summer, the numbers picked up very much but without monster software it has recently dropped back down. Also the PSP has been seeing some stellar weeks since the Slim & Lite launch and can continue to do so if the software they need comes out. The Wii will taper off after this year after all the Mario games come out this winter and Wii owners have nothing to play next year except Wii fit, since all the first party games will have been exhausted and we know that the Wii has a paltry third party line up.
Demand for everything except an updated console has tapered off, the wii and DS are still selling sharply above every non-new release. What is it with people dooming the wii because it's selling less in a typically slow point in Japan? It's still selling double the PS3.. also it's still maintaining stable W.W. sales numbers, there's a decline in Japan but overall demand is right about where it was.

 



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DMeisterJ said:
I don't think he is a sony fanboy W29 but his predictions may hold true. As we can now see, the demand for the wii, at least in Japan, has been tapering off as has the DS. Also, as we saw with the price drop/fire sale for the PS3 this summer, the numbers picked up very much but without monster software it has recently dropped back down. Also the PSP has been seeing some stellar weeks since the Slim & Lite launch and can continue to do so if the software they need comes out. The Wii will taper off after this year after all the Mario games come out this winter and Wii owners have nothing to play next year except Wii fit, since all the first party games will have been exhausted and we know that the Wii has a paltry third party line up.

While I by no means think that Sony is finished his predictions are rediculously optimistic.

I love how just becasue we had Zelda last year and the big 1st party three this year Nintendo isn't going to make any more games for it's own system. Doesn't it occur to people that they want to focus on the games they are trying to sell this holiday before they distract peple too much with the 2008 lineup. Yes Wii Fit isn't everyone's game but it will be big. Mario Kart is coming in the spring, and I am prediciting Animal Crossing for the Holidays(We know they have been working on it for years). You can count on a Mario Party 9(First one developed from the ground up for the Wii) pushing 2 million + copies. Doesn't seem so slim now, plus there are boatloads of Wii games coming from the thrid parties next year. Yes if they fail you will see support drop off again in 2009 but 2008 will be the Wii's year

 I like the PS3 and all but it went from expected domination to needing to make a major move in less than a year. Many Sony execs are quoted as expectecd a 10-15 year lifetime when console generations last 5-6.  Things are not good for Sony despite what the analyst says.

It is Nintendo's time, only they can mess it up. (Xbox does have a chance of maintaining leadership in NA with strong exclusives.)



Final* Word on Game Delays:

The game will not be any better or include more content then planned. Any commnets that say so are just PR hogwash to make you feel better for having to wait.

Delays are due to lack of proper resources, skill, or adequate planning by the developer.

Do be thankful that they have enough respect for you to delay the game and maintain its intended level of quality.

*naznatips is exempt

IMO, a pretty realistic longterm prediction, but we will have a better view when the heavy hitting PS3 exclusives become available. With regard to the years beyond 2011 I think the PS3 slimlines will perform significantly better than the other two consoles, maybe a Wii compatible "Wii HD" (with legacy software scaling abilities like the PS3) will be released in the meantime, but shouldn't such a product be considered to be an entirely new product?

Half a year ago I predicted XBox 360 sales will not top 40 million. I think a Wii HD may be released before the Wii reaches a 40 million install base as well.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

souixan said:
DMeisterJ said:
I don't think he is a sony fanboy W29 but his predictions may hold true. As we can now see, the demand for the wii, at least in Japan, has been tapering off as has the DS. Also, as we saw with the price drop/fire sale for the PS3 this summer, the numbers picked up very much but without monster software it has recently dropped back down. Also the PSP has been seeing some stellar weeks since the Slim & Lite launch and can continue to do so if the software they need comes out. The Wii will taper off after this year after all the Mario games come out this winter and Wii owners have nothing to play next year except Wii fit, since all the first party games will have been exhausted and we know that the Wii has a paltry third party line up.
Demand for everything except an updated console has tapered off, the wii and DS are still selling sharply above every non-new release. What is it with people dooming the wii because it's selling less in a typically slow point in Japan? It's still selling double the PS3.. also it's still maintaining stable W.W. sales numbers, there's a decline in Japan but overall demand is right about where it was.

 


 Thank you, I find it funny that people are saying the Wii is dying off, its still selling higher than any other console in the market only the handhelds are selling higher, and the PSP is only selling well because there is a new version out on the market, but don't expect its sales to last more than a few weeks, I expect that by the end of october it'll be back below 100K, probably around 50-60K tops.  As for the Wii its selling about as well as the PS2 was doing at similar points 



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

MikeB said:

Half a year ago I predicted XBox 360 sales will not top 40 million. I think a Wii HD may be released before the Wii reaches a 40 million install base as well.

I fail to see any merit in what the article points out. Why are you quick to believe that Nintendo would sacrifice this generation by killing off the Wii so soon with a new console? That doesn't make ANY sense. At all. Not even a little. Technical prowess and horsepower of a console have NEVER been the deciding factor in the console wars.

We'll have a better view this holiday season, no need to continue waiting for the PS3 saviors. What are they now? MGS4 and GT5? FFXIII won't arrive till holiday 08 the earliest, and in Japan no less. NA and EU won't see that game till 09.

Show us this huge market shift that's going to occur. 



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Dolla Dolla said:
MikeB said:

Half a year ago I predicted XBox 360 sales will not top 40 million. I think a Wii HD may be released before the Wii reaches a 40 million install base as well.

I fail to see any merit in what the article points out. Why are you quick to believe that Nintendo would sacrifice this generation by killing off the Wii so soon with a new console? That doesn't make ANY sense. At all. Not even a little. Technical prowess and horsepower of a console have NEVER been the deciding factor in the console wars.

We'll have a better view this holiday season, no need to continue waiting for the PS3 saviors. What are they now? MGS4 and GT5? FFXIII won't arrive till holiday 08 the earliest, and in Japan no less. NA and EU won't see that game till 09.

Show us this huge market shift that's going to occur.


Exactly.  In fact, there is only once in history that the strongest console one the generation and that's the SNES.  Even then it won because it was priced cheaper not because of it's power. The last two generations the weakest console one.  The PSone was vastly weaker than the N64 and Saturn.  The PS2 was weaker than the Dreamcast, the GC, and the Xbox.  

If anyone in this industry is financially savvy it's Nintendo.  They know how to make money.  They made more money on the GC than Sony did on the PS2 despite the PS2 selling 5 times as much.  Do people really think Nintendo is going to suddenly forget how they make money?  Cutting a console's lifespan short while it's making record breaking sales numbers wouldn't make sense and it's not something Nintendo would do.



naznatips said:
 

Exactly. In fact, there is only once in history that the strongest console one the generation and that's the SNES. Even then it won because it was priced cheaper not because of it's power.



Genesis was always cheaper ( or par in price ) than Snes. Snes won because that " console war " was pure " Red Ocean " and Nintendo was more powerful than Sega ( from a financial point of view ). 



 “In the entertainment business, there are only heaven and hell, and nothing in between and as soon as our customers bore of our products, we will crash.”  Hiroshi Yamauchi

TAG:  Like a Yamauchi pimp slap delivered by Il Maelstrom; serving it up with style.

Desroko said:
madskillz said:
HappySqurriel said:

I always think that the taper off idea is remarkably stupid because the industry can not produce such an outcome ...

Sales of the PS3 have been poor so far and will look awful after the holiday season 2007; this will result in third party publishers reducing exclusive support for the PS3, and not allocating PS2 development teams towards the PS3 as projects are completed (most likely that support will move towards the Wii). In 2008 the Wii will have another banner year whilst the PS3 continues to struggle; this will in turn cause a further shift towards the Wii.

Magically in 2009 (when the PS3 becomes an affordable system) people are going to start buying the PS3 and ignoring the Wii when most of the major third party games are being released for the Wii?

The first 18 months are critical for producing a large userbase in order to have third party confidence so that you have the important games on your system later in life.


/ QFT - I totally agree with this. There's a lot riding on his prediction, and it doesn't address if anyone will still be making games for the PS3 by then, especially if the masses are embracing the Wii and 360. The best prediction is looking at the PS2/Xbox fight. Being late to the table, a lack of exclusives and the better console didn't do jack for the Xbox. It amazes me folks are still predicting the PS3 to win. Sony greatly wounded their chances when they removed the Emotion emulator engine in favor of software emulation. I am just sitting back, playing Halo 3 and Halo 4, watching this drama unfold.

 


That's quite a feat. Can I come to your house?

Seriously, I agree.


LOL ... you are invited! I was talking about when Halo 4 hits, a few years from now, B$3 fanboys will still be saying the PS3 will be victorious.

It never fails ... when I was living in the South, some residents kept Confederate Civil War money because they believe the South will rise again.

Dang, Barnum was correct ... 



Crazy crazy I am pretty sure that PS3/360 will not sell more then 30m. It has almost gone two years for 360 and it has only sold 12m and PS3 is selling at the same speed as 360. I am not going to predict anything for Wii because the supporters are sensitive.



 

Final Fantasy, in an amazing scenario could sell 6 million consoles.
LBP "" "" "" could sell 3 million consoles
MGS4 "" "" "" could sell 2 million consoles.
GOW 3 "" "" "" could sell 500k consoles
GT5 "" "" "" could sell 5 million consoles
Ratchet and Clank "" '" "" could sell 500k consoles

So, where is he getting the extra 17 million consoles sold from? Anyone? Bueller?



See Ya George.

"He did not die - He passed Away"

At least following a comedians own jokes makes his death easier.