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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next-gen console war: The verdict by mcvuk.com

Desroko on 01 October 2007
madskillz said:
HappySqurriel said:

I always think that the taper off idea is remarkably stupid because the industry can not produce such an outcome ...

Sales of the PS3 have been poor so far and will look awful after the holiday season 2007; this will result in third party publishers reducing exclusive support for the PS3, and not allocating PS2 development teams towards the PS3 as projects are completed (most likely that support will move towards the Wii). In 2008 the Wii will have another banner year whilst the PS3 continues to struggle; this will in turn cause a further shift towards the Wii.

Magically in 2009 (when the PS3 becomes an affordable system) people are going to start buying the PS3 and ignoring the Wii when most of the major third party games are being released for the Wii?

The first 18 months are critical for producing a large userbase in order to have third party confidence so that you have the important games on your system later in life.


/ QFT - I totally agree with this. There's a lot riding on his prediction, and it doesn't address if anyone will still be making games for the PS3 by then, especially if the masses are embracing the Wii and 360. The best prediction is looking at the PS2/Xbox fight. Being late to the table, a lack of exclusives and the better console didn't do jack for the Xbox. It amazes me folks are still predicting the PS3 to win. Sony greatly wounded their chances when they removed the Emotion emulator engine in favor of software emulation. I am just sitting back, playing Halo 3 and Halo 4, watching this drama unfold.

 


 That's quite a feat. Can I come to your house?

 Seriously, I agree. 



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W29 on 01 October 2007
Desroko said:
I'm not bullish on the 360's prospects by any means, but 36 million is certainly achievable. I expect it to end 2011 somewhere in the 40s.

Well I can take that as a accomplishment. Microsoft will seriously be happy with that. But more importantly they want to see Sony last.



regin2005 on 01 October 2007

This thread = joke!!!



Generation 8 Predictions so far.....(as of 9/2013)

Console that will sell most: Nintendo Wii U

Who will sell more consoles between Microsoft/SONY: SONY

 

Avinash_Tyagi on 01 October 2007

I should so become a games analyst, these guys get paid to basically act like internet fanboys, how in the world does he expect the PS3 to sell 31 million in two years and the Wii to sell only 25 million, especially when Wii software sales are so much higher than the PS3?



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

W29 on 01 October 2007
regin2005 said:
This thread = joke!!!


The thread responses are not a joke, but the article author is a joke.



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Parokki on 01 October 2007

Predictions like this were understandable a year ago... but totally boggle the mind now. On top of being completely oblivious to who has the momentum and where the developers are going, he seems to think the console market is going to shrink from last gen.



Stevetrop on 01 October 2007

I can't see both the Wii and 360 falling flat on their face and the ps3 surpassing them in sales in 09. 3rd party support is the life and blood of future console sales. First party can bring on a rush of sales for a while but the longevity of a console goes on it's 3rd party support. With more 3rd party support the broader the library of games the console can have.

I really do hate when people say that the Wii is just a "Fad". If you look back about 25 years or so ago gaming in general was considered a "Fad". The Wii have branched off and created a new road in the gaming industry and it will not die down anytime soon.



"Everyone else see's the Joker laugh; only Harley has ever seen him cry."- Arleen Sorkin

 

In an hour of Darkness a blind man is
the best guide. In an age of Insanity
look to the madman to show the way.
- - Warhammer 40,000 rule book

Wingshot on 01 October 2007

One factor that could come into play this holiday season is the weakness of the US $ - given that it is at parity with the Canadian dollar and at a new low against the Euro there could be a lot of favorable 360 pricing outside the US just based on currency exchange.

On the flip side - any PS3 price cut in the US market will result in Sony hemorrhaging more cash than they already are.



ioi - "I have always endorsed NPD and have always conceded that their figures are obviously far more accurate than ours ..." - Posted on: 06/14/07, 22:22

http://www.vgchartz.com/news/news.php?id=355

elnino334 on 01 October 2007

Predictions seem way off if you ask me. Seems like all of a sudden the PS3 starts out selling both 360 and Wii combined. Will be interesting to see what happens.



TWRoO on 01 October 2007

wow, these number are quite close to what i expected before Wii/ps3 released (i think i had 70-80M PS3 / 60-70M Wii / 30-40M 360) though i had it for end of gen, so my numbers should be a tad higher (which they are, see above)

now i have seen the launches etc, 41.9M Wii for the end of 2009 seems incredibly stupid, i mean 1st year 17M with massive supply constraint, followed by 2 years of average 12M Wiis, i doubt it...if Wii does slow down it won't be that fast, and if anything (assuming 3rd partys actually get somewhere) it should speed up for 2008 at least.

and PS3 selling over 15M for those two years is even more insane, i do think sales will pick up a lot for it but i wouldn't bank on more than 10M per year (if you take away the 2006 sales PS3 will be about 5M for this year, so my 'best bet' for PS3 is doubling the sales p/y