@ naznatips

The Snes wasn't very powerful, it was about on par with the Sega MegaDrive and much weaker specced than the Neo Geo. So your "rule" still seems to apply.

No seriously, IMO the Snes won because of:

1) Strong popular franchises -> Mario, Zelda, Star Fox, Metroid, and Donkey Kong.
2) Brand recognition and reputation -> The NES was the best sold game console at the time.
3) Cheap.

Now if I compare this to the Playstation 3 situation, there's only a lot of work to do for point 3. But we also know, people are willing to pay for better specs (higher specced 60GB PS3 vs 20 GB PS3 sales), so Sony can aim to educate people on the advantages of better specifications before the PS3 makes it to mass market pricing.

A Wii HD would not be a new console. It would be like the different between the Xbox 360 Premium and the Xbox 360 Elite. I imagine such a console having a small HD (up to 5 gb flash or 20-60 gb HD), a system to DL Virtual Console games to it, CD playback, and DVD playback. I doubt it would allow HD graphics and if it did, they might be modified.

The SNES beat Sega because it was a better system with more and better games. Sega had almost none of the Japanese market so Japanese publishers put more resources into the SNES (by a long shot). Remember, Sega was 3rd place in Japan. The other major factor was the events that happened the last few years of the 16bit console war. TG 16 faded out in Japan as Nintendo gained more and more control. Nintendo released three Donkey County Country games in America and Americans started to take notice of Japanese RPGs at the same time Sega released the 32x and Sega CD. Both add ons failed while sales of the Donkey Kong series soared and Nintendo won the war. The SNES had better fighting, RPG, adventure, and platform games. Sega had better sports games and both systems had good games for most other genres. Sega just could not compete.

About the possibility that Nintendo will release all of its major IPs by the end of this year, that is not true. Nintendo has a half dozen super big IPs on Wii (Zelda, Wii Sports, Brawl, Mario, and Mario Kart). Mario Kart comes out next spring and by the end of 2009 another Zelda and Wii Sports will likely be out. Retro is working on another game for the Wii which should also be out by that time. Wii Fit looks to be huge. By the end of 2009 also look for Mario Tennis, Mario Golf, Mario Party 9 (with internet, full screen, better graphics), Animal Crossing, more IPs from the Gamecube, more IPs from the DS, and several new IPs. We will also see more 3rd party games for the Wii Gun and 3rd party games that work with Wii Fit by the end of 2008. Square, Namco, Rockstar, and Capcom may not release their largest games on the Wii, but they will major sure that spin offs from most of their major series will make it to the Wii. Let's not forget the ever increasing Virtual Console library. By 2009 it may have games from 10-15 different consoles, especially if Nintendo comes out with a HD or makes a Wii model that comes with a HD.

With high sales of Wii Sports, Wii Play, Mario Party 8 (or a newer version), Mario Galaxy, Brawl, Mario Kart, Guitar Hero III, Mario and Sonic Olympics, tons of Virtual Console game and more, 2008 looks to be an even better year for Nintendo. I think 2009 will be even better, at least for gamers. The wiimote and balance board controls should be mastered by most major developers and the graphics should have improved a bit. Online play will be very sharp and even unknown older games will have made their way to the Virtual Console. Not to mention all of the newer downloadable Wiiware games that will be out.

In summary: A newer Wii is possible but it will still be the same system for the most part and not something entire new. SNES beat Sega because it had better game. By the end of 2007, all of Nintendo's best games will not be out. The Wii will have great sales in 2008 and 2009.

Also, I am not saying that Sony cannot win the current console war. I fully expect that if BR wins the DVD format war, Square and at least 2 other major companies agree to release several timed exclusives on the PS3, PS3 sports games get up to Xbox 360 quality, and the PS3 price is eventually reduced to $250 that it will win the current console war.

Fuzzmosis said: Final Fantasy, in an amazing scenario could sell 6 million consoles. LBP "" "" "" could sell 3 million consoles MGS4 "" "" "" could sell 2 million consoles. GOW 3 "" "" "" could sell 500k consoles GT5 "" "" "" could sell 5 million consoles Ratchet and Clank "" '" "" could sell 500k consoles So, where is he getting the extra 17 million consoles sold from? Anyone? Bueller?

Assuming (of course) that everyone who buys a system for one of these games has no interest in any other of these games, and that people who have already bought the console are not interested in these games. A more realistic boost from these games would be 4 to 6 Million units, which brings the question "So, where is he getting the extra 28 million consoles sold from?"

naznatips said: Dolla Dolla said: MikeB said: Half a year ago I predicted XBox 360 sales will not top 40 million. I think a Wii HD may be released before the Wii reaches a 40 million install base as well. I fail to see any merit in what the article points out. Why are you quick to believe that Nintendo would sacrifice this generation by killing off the Wii so soon with a new console? That doesn't make ANY sense. At all. Not even a little. Technical prowess and horsepower of a console have NEVER been the deciding factor in the console wars. We'll have a better view this holiday season, no need to continue waiting for the PS3 saviors. What are they now? MGS4 and GT5? FFXIII won't arrive till holiday 08 the earliest, and in Japan no less. NA and EU won't see that game till 09. Show us this huge market shift that's going to occur. Exactly. In fact, there is only once in history that the strongest console one the generation and that's the SNES. Even then it won because it was priced cheaper not because of it's power. The last two generations the weakest console one. The PSone was vastly weaker than the N64 and Saturn. The PS2 was weaker than the Dreamcast, the GC, and the Xbox. If anyone in this industry is financially savvy it's Nintendo. They know how to make money. They made more money on the GC than Sony did on the PS2 despite the PS2 selling 5 times as much. Do people really think Nintendo is going to suddenly forget how they make money? Cutting a console's lifespan short while it's making record breaking sales numbers wouldn't make sense and it's not something Nintendo would do.

 The Neo-Geo was the strongest, so even that gen, the strongest didn't win.

Ah, well then sorry hehe. I guess the strongest has never won.

naznatips said: Ah, well then sorry hehe. I guess the strongest has never won.

 Although it never seemed to be due to the strength persay, but due to the hardware maker focusing on that power to the detriment of factors that would help the system win, although those factors tend to be different each gen.

Soriku said: naznatips said: Ah, well then sorry hehe. I guess the strongest has never won.   The weakest always wins lol. @Rol QFT.

 

Well, there are reasons why weaker systems often win ... They are often released earlier or at a lower price point, and tend to have less complicated architectures (making them easier to develop for). Cheap systems which easy to develop for and arrive before their competition tend to do well whereas expensive systems which are difficulty to develop for and arrive late tend to do poorly.

I could take this article, but this sentence was too much:

"Debate still rattles around blogs and the web community over the longevity of the Wii".

Is he that desperate to prove the Wii is a fad? Internet blogs? I wonder if the politicians could pass tax rising bills based on Wikipedia reports.
Why not just link it to 1up boards.

Bookmark this thread so we can look back at it in two year's time. I have a feeling we'll be having a good laugh - AGAIN! - at the expense of Screen Digest.

Here's what the same group said earlier this year:

Through 2010, Screen Digest has PS3 in first and Wii in a distant third. These market share predictions were extracted from a graph, since the exact numbers are not in the Gamasutra article. The Japanese market prediction seems strange, but we'll see what happens.

Japan
360 - 11%
PS3 - 64%
Wii - 25%

USA
360 - 42%
PS3 - 38%
Wii - 20%

Europe/Australia
360 - 37%
PS3 - 43%
Wii - 20%

They then later said in this thread that the market was "impossible to predict." So, aside from swapping the position of the Wii and the 360, their prediction has remained *EXACTLY* the same despite a growing mountain of evidence to the contrary. I continued to be stunned at the abject denial of reality on the part of a so-called "professional" analyst group. There is no possible way that anyone can predict a victory for the PS3 anymore and be taken seriously. None. Anyone who feels that way is living in a dream world. We've got almost a full year's worth of sales data now, and (outside the two weeks of the PS3 European launch), the system has failed to be the top selling console in ANY region for even ONE single week this year! Or, to put it another way, the Wii has outsold the PS3:

45 out of 45 weeks (America)
45 out of 45 weeks (Japan)
28 out of 30 weeks (Europe)

You'd have to be delusional to think that the PS3 will somehow, magically, rise up and sell more units by 2009. How can anyone watch the sales data week after week, month after month, and still believe that?!?

I can't tell if these people are completely insane, or very successful con artists.

good lord, they predicted Japans marketshare to be 11% 360 and 25% Wii, that's more than just insane, i mean the 360 has a good chance at passing 1 million (much better than original XB) but there is no way it will get past 1.5M, the Wii is already more than double that....so for their prediction to hold true, 360 will have to reach it's full potential, and Wii actually has to completely stop selling as of now.

to put it a different way, last Gen the total number of Japanese home consoles was 32milion (current shipped numbers but as PS2 is still selling it should manage that number sold)... using those percentages, the 360 would have to sell over 3 million, the Wii managing 8 million and PS3 21 million (which is close to PS2 numbers)

gahh i can't be bothered to explain this (probably rather poorly) to people who already realise these (or this) idiot is a total idiot.