...Do you think it will do poorly?
My reasoning for why it will perform under par of the Wii is that motion control won't be as much of a selling point since all 3 console manufacturers will have it by that time and people will eventually want to upgrade to HD graphics once they finally purchase a shiny new TV. People who have played Wii on an HDTV even with component cables knows that games look very bland with a lot of jaggies. As HD whores and technophiles become more common with the newer generations of gamers, people will start to demand "cooler" consoles. The Wii has been branded as "kiddy" many times over and this stigma will only get worse over time.
Motion control is huge at the moment, and is the reason why many people (including myself...er my mom) bought the Wii in the first place. We are looking for that fresh, new experience that has never been fully implemented in past generations of consoles. By taking away this wow factor, Microsoft and Sony will be able to level the playing field and this will be less of a selling point than it is now for the Wii. Sure the implementation will differ between consoles, but the general idea will be the same.
Price is another factor as to why the Wii is doing well. Launched, and still at, $250 makes the Wii the cheapest current gen console still excluding the 360 Arcade ($199). Parents who aren't able to afford big electronics purchases at the moment due to the economic crises will go out shopping for little Jill and Johnny for Christmas or their birthday, see the $300-500 price of the competing systems, and grab the Wii instead simply because its more affordable and is still a game console. I have a feeling Microsoft, and especially Sony, have learned that no console sells very well at a price higher than $299 and will adjust launch prices of their next consoles accordingly to combat this.
So if Nintendo sticks to its current path of non-HD, motion control gaming, do you think their next console will stumble out of the gate?











