I need some opnions backed by reasoning here.

Do you think there will be a shortage of Wii's this Christmas, or do you think demand has finally fallen to levels of supply? Also, if you think there will be a shortage, what do you think the average price will be on places like Craigslist or eBay?

These are my thoughts;

The Wii supply after 10 months has finally caught up to supply, therefore, when demand goes back up during Christmas time, the price of a Wii will inflate on c-list, eBay. I think the avg price will be around $350 to $400.

If you think about it, around March and April of this year, Wii's were regularly going for around $450 - $500, and I think Nintendo will flood the market just enough to keep prices below those levels.

This wasn't very well written, but I'm kinda in a hurry, so if you understand the question, can you please post your opinion? Thanks. 

It may sell out, but it'd hardly be called a shortage. It's pretty much confirmed that Nintendo will have an extra million or two to sell over the holiday.

Nintendo's gonna sneak couple extra million into retail for this Christmas, but they're gonna be gobbled up immediately once they show their first Smash Bros. commercial on prime time TV with Mario, Snake, and Sonic. Mario/Sonic Olympics will also snare a bunch of casuals who grew up in the 80's or 90's (any game over the age of 20). And of course, there's Mario Galaxy, which is looking amazing so far. Craigslist prices will skyrocket as everybody scrambles to get their families Wiis with one or all of those games. Not to mention Wii Sports, which is STILL a huge wrecking ball in the industry. I should try to find an extra Wii to leave in a box and sell in December... it'll pay for my Guitar Hero 3 package... mwahahaha.

I think it will sell out from late October until March of next year. Maybe April if Mario Kart is released in late February or if Wiifit is a hit. That said, Nintendo needs to take some notes from Microsoft in terms of hyping up games. Halo3 got it right. Galaxy, Brawl, and Kart are all games that need to by hyped. Each one should move some consoles as well.

I would consider doing the same. Reselling a new Wii but it's still hard to find here in Edmonton. I figure I could easily make a couple of hundred on each Wii I find. I'd feel guilty though.

yep.

I see Wii selling 5m in Nov and Dec worldwide. That will be the 5m they put into the channel, sold out. I think I may also find some now and keep them for december ebay goodness.

Hey don't hate me for this, but if people are too lazy to buy now, early then they deserve to pay twice the price come December 1.

QFT.

Get one now. If demand wasn't going to be high enough with Christmas, Mario Galaxy, SSBB, Mario & Sonic and about a dozen AA games coming out from late Oct to early Dec are really going to spike demand for Wiis. However many they put on the market won't be enough.

The games will move systems but they don't really matter that much. They finaly satisfied demand. But only just, and it is almost october. It is findable but they aren't sitting on the shelves of all the possible stores . The holiday rush starts the end of next month. It gets ealier every year. The fact that I am seeing Xmas decorations in stores means people are starting to buy gifts. My guess is that by black friday they will be gone, and we will be back to people waiting outside stores for shipments. That said I don't think the big casual push will drive the aftermarket price too high. I am guessing $350 or so. That is what a couple friends of mine paid last holiday. Although it was dampened by PS3 hype ther are supposed to be more consoles this year than last.

Of course there will be a shortage of Wiis this Christmas (shortage meaning the demand will outstrip supply). Nintendo hasn't been able to keep up with non-holiday demand. Look at the graphs
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=GC&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&weekly=1
Those spikes happen every 52 weeks -- right around Christmas time. Any reason why the demand for the Wii wouldn't go up around Christmas just like it has for all of the other consoles in history?

How much will they go for? That's a much harder question. IMO, double retail at least, because it's a price the market has already shown it can bear in off-holiday season. But I think there will be a lot available on ebay and that price will probably level off at that point. Ask yourself this. "If I were a parent trying to get a toy for Christmas, how much additional would I be willing to pay if the toy is in high demand?" And from every "hot toy" auction I've seen around Christmas, it's been about double the price, mainly won by people on the east coast. There are some exceptions, but that's the general trend I've seen.