Of course there will be a shortage of Wiis this Christmas (shortage meaning the demand will outstrip supply). Nintendo hasn't been able to keep up with non-holiday demand. Look at the graphs
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=GC®2=All&cons3=PS2®3=All&weekly=1
Those spikes happen every 52 weeks -- right around Christmas time. Any reason why the demand for the Wii wouldn't go up around Christmas just like it has for all of the other consoles in history?
How much will they go for? That's a much harder question. IMO, double retail at least, because it's a price the market has already shown it can bear in off-holiday season. But I think there will be a lot available on ebay and that price will probably level off at that point. Ask yourself this. "If I were a parent trying to get a toy for Christmas, how much additional would I be willing to pay if the toy is in high demand?" And from every "hot toy" auction I've seen around Christmas, it's been about double the price, mainly won by people on the east coast. There are some exceptions, but that's the general trend I've seen.
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