mrstickball said: So why exactly has the Wii gone from selling 7:1 to just 2:1? If the market was totally in recession, why isn't the ratio keeping in lock?

Probably becauase the 7:1 ratio was back when PS3 sales were horrid in japan. The recent downtrend for all consoles started when the ratio was much more like 2.5:1.

No offense, but frankly I am surprised you needed to ask this

 

The problem is people are having a hard time seperating out the fact that Wii sales had started to slump a little in late July to mid August. This was when numbers were "down" to around 60-70k, which I think most people understand is still very good numbers for Japan. But when you combine with rising PS3 numbers the ratio shifts easily.

This is when the industry slump hit and it has effected everyone more or less equally, and as I am sure you know everyone latches on to the Wii dropping in part because everyone is watching the market leader but also because bigger numbers result in bigger swings from percentages.

^ quite optimistic for the X360 and PS3 there Mr Stickball, but i don't think the Wii is in the same market when it comes to target consumers. the casual consumer market will continue to pay out simply because it is so massive. there are middle aged people i work with who have got or are getting one because they think its fun. they also think its the top end of technology. they're not interested in PS3 or X360 (or PS2 for that matter), because they think they're just toys for spotty boys. Ninty really have broadened the market beyond the PS2, and that's where they will continue to sell.

I can see Sony are making an effort to go for the casual with some features of the PS3, but they won't beat a cheap 'fun' machine like the Wii unless they re-brand the PS2 and give it a new interface other than a control pad.

mrstickball said: IMO, in the US and Europe, it seems like the Wii has a long way ahead until it'd start slowing down. Mainly because the X360 and PS3 top-tier games aren't out yet. Halo3 is just the first in a huge slew of games, that could (emphasis on could) steal Wii thunder. You basically have: Super Mario Galaxy Super Smash Brothers Brawl vs. Halo 3 Mass Effect & Metal Gear Solid 4 Final Fantasy XIII + Non-Wii Multiports: Grand Theft Auto 4 Call of Duty 4 Rock Band Now, the question is: can SMG and SSBB continue the Wii trend of uber-sellers, and allow Nintendo to re-capture the inititive in Japan, and restart 70k/wk sales, and hit insane holiday numbers? I know some argue that "oh, the Wii is just down like every other system is down". True, but only to a point. The Playstation 3 is nowhere near it's lowest, despite few good games out - Bladestorm and HSG5 are the only 2 major games selling right now. So why exactly has the Wii gone from selling 7:1 to just 2:1? If the market was totally in recession, why isn't the ratio keeping in lock? For the PSP vs. DS, it was handily going in the DS's favor until FF:CC released on PSP, creating an anomaly. As I've been saying for the whole year, I still see the Wii sales cresting in the US and Europe next year, slowly losing marketshare to the PS3 and X360. Remember, there was a time for 3-4 months that Wii sales were beating X360 and PS3 combined rather easily. That's not quite the case anymore. If that trend continued, MS will regain the US per-month lead, and will stay there, as the X360 lineup seems to be more favorable in the US, and the PS3 lineup, in Europe. IMO, I still see the race being that Sony gets Europe barely, MS gets the US by a decent margin, and the Wii still manages a good lead in Japan. But we'll see how 2008 goes with the influx of Wii software.

7:1 now would suggest PS3 selling 4,2k wich would be very bad for Sony; really, there's a lowest point for sales. 4,2k means zero general interest from the people in the product, like Xbox360. What I'm trying to say is if Wii was at 700k and PS3 at 100k (7:1 ratio) then if the Wii fell by 100%, the PS3 would do so too (350k and 50k respectively) but you cannot expect the same analogy in such low numbers. If you see GC numbers now in Japan, you'll see weekly +66% or -100%; does that mean increased/decreased interest in the system? At such low numbers, it's unpredicatable at least.

mrstickball said: You basically have: Super Mario Galaxy Super Smash Brothers Brawl

You miss WiiFit. Like Scuff77 said above, I think we must not analyze Wii market ( or DS market ) with older standard. IMO Wii sale explosion will begin in this holiday season all over the world.

 

Well, there are not many AAA games for the Wii right now. Why should it sell? Even Wii Sports gets old at some point and Wii Fit will be released around Christmas.

@Mr Stickball: Your are talking about the 2 biggest franchises the Wii has in Japan and you didn´t even mention Wii Fit which could sell even more.

We shouldn´t forget the Wii is targeting the casual audience: Wii Fit is going to move a massive amount of consoles in the whole world - maybe for months.

I see where you're coming from, but I don't think we have to worry yet.

Japan:
As other people have pointed out, Japan sees a slow period for all the consoles, that is one reason why we don't have to worry about that market imo. The other one is that there really are very few good games for the Japanese market out on the Wii at the moment. Different to the West, Zelda is no system seller in Japan and Super Paper Mario isn't either. Dragon Quest Swords seems to be a bad game and Mario Party as well as Wario Ware are good games, but not the ones a console buyer usually wants to get first.
In addition to that, no important games have been released in recent weeks.

Next week, Super Mario Strikers will come out. I expect that this game will boost Wii sales back to 50k. If it doesn't, it wouldn't be too bad yet because we still have Galaxy and Brawl that will boost sales massively. Anyways, as low as 30k is, it's still more than twice as much as the numbers of the first competitor.

America:
No real issue here. Selling almost 100k is absolutely great, even if the 360 is close behind. I expect the boost that the Wii will see because of Galaxy to be higher than the one that the 360 will see because of Halo 3, so the Wii will be able to shorten the gap until Christmas. If it'll ever be able to take the lead in NA will largely depend on the 360's trend in 08: if it is able to keep up above 60k, it'll win America, if not, the Wii will finally outsell it.

Europe:
People keep forgetting that Europe is the Wii's best market at the moment. It sell regularly over 90k while its competitors are struggling to break 40k. I don't see any of the other two consoles change something here. The casual market is far more important in Europe than the hardcore market, and the Wii serves it best. Games like Galaxy, Brawl or Kart will attract even more gamers and Wii Fit will keep the casual momentum alive.
Sony is usually strong in Europe, but its product is not interesting for european gamers because it heads into a completely different direction than the PS2 did. The 360 will become second in Europe I think, it fills the gaps that the Wii leaves open (action and racing games amongst others). However, it won't have a chance to close the gap to the Wii again because it has yet to build a brand name in Europe.

Wordwide Wii hasn't dropped that much. At 217k now and I think it will be back to 250k+ next week.

SPM just released in Europe (selling great) and MP3 not yet out. So sales for Europe will increase. And SMG, WiiFit and others will make 2008 sales well beyond 2007 sales.

 

To put things into perspective, look at this chart and try to say "the bubble is about to burst":

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=Wii&reg2=All&cons3=Wii&reg3=All&weekly=1

The real problem at the moment is Japan, though it should stop decreasing with the new releases. Mario Strikers and I think Sengoku Musuo Katana are going to be released next week. After that, MySims, a fishing game, an anime game, and DDR are going to be released. Not killer apps, but decent stuff. Should keep the Wii at 30-40k I think. In America I actually expect it to decrease until October, when some good games will start flowing. Obviously, sales will explode when Mario, Smash, RE, WiiFit, and other get released. They have stuff to keep decent sales for holidays and the start of 08. Now, they need to get Animal Crossing for Japan fast ( arguably bigger than FF), same for Crystal Chronicles. Oh, also, No more heroes is coming in 2008 :). That, and Disaster´s rumoured early 08 release may help.

The Wii isn't in any trouble, and the "Wii bubble" is a myth besides. The "trend" (note: not really a trend) we're seeing is the result of circumstance.

The 360 just saw the release of an AA title (Bioshock) combined with a price drop, both of which are driving sales. The PS3's two big releases of the month (Heavenly Sword and Warhawk) also boosted sales a little for that console. However, the Wii has nothing but MP3, an AA title to be sure, but one which was underhyped and barely advertised, at least compared to Bioshock, Heavenly Sword, and Warhawk.

Then, of course, we have Halo 3, which is going to take everyone by storm for a few weeks, at least in America. People will trumpet it as the beginning of the 360's saving grace, but in reality it's the only 360 exclusive that has any appeal to casuals this holiday season. (And even then, it really only appeals to the teenage-twentysomething group of casuals.) Mass Effect won't sell big to anybody but people who already own a 360. It doesn't have the franchise hype that the KotoR games did, so I expect it to sell about as well as Jade Empire; that is to say, decently well, but not enough to make it a system-seller. Either way, Nintendo's one-two-three punch of SMG, SSBB, and Wii Fit will take some time to come out, but it will help the Wii dethrone Halo 3's lead.

As for the PS3, that system is basically dead in the water until '08 when its system sellers (FFXIII and MGS4) come out. By then, however, I expect it to be too late; those two games will sell some systems, but with DQ9 on the DS and MGS not as big of a franchise as it was when MGS2 sold tons of PS2's, they won't be the system's saviors. The console wars are usually, for the most part, decided in the first year of sales, and the PS3 is currently in a distant third. Sorry, Sony fans.

So, in short, the Wii is hardly in trouble. We're just seeing a bit of rapids before the long, long stretch of smooth sailing.

mrstickball said: IMO, in the US and Europe, it seems like the Wii has a long way ahead until it'd start slowing down. Mainly because the X360 and PS3 top-tier games aren't out yet. Halo3 is just the first in a huge slew of games, that could (emphasis on could) steal Wii thunder. You basically have: Super Mario Galaxy Super Smash Brothers Brawl vs. Halo 3 Mass Effect & Metal Gear Solid 4 Final Fantasy XIII + Non-Wii Multiports: Grand Theft Auto 4 Call of Duty 4 Rock Band Now, the question is: can SMG and SSBB continue the Wii trend of uber-sellers, and allow Nintendo to re-capture the inititive in Japan, and restart 70k/wk sales, and hit insane holiday numbers? I know some argue that "oh, the Wii is just down like every other system is down". True, but only to a point. The Playstation 3 is nowhere near it's lowest, despite few good games out - Bladestorm and HSG5 are the only 2 major games selling right now. So why exactly has the Wii gone from selling 7:1 to just 2:1? If the market was totally in recession, why isn't the ratio keeping in lock? For the PSP vs. DS, it was handily going in the DS's favor until FF:CC released on PSP, creating an anomaly. As I've been saying for the whole year, I still see the Wii sales cresting in the US and Europe next year, slowly losing marketshare to the PS3 and X360. Remember, there was a time for 3-4 months that Wii sales were beating X360 and PS3 combined rather easily. That's not quite the case anymore. If that trend continued, MS will regain the US per-month lead, and will stay there, as the X360 lineup seems to be more favorable in the US, and the PS3 lineup, in Europe. IMO, I still see the race being that Sony gets Europe barely, MS gets the US by a decent margin, and the Wii still manages a good lead in Japan. But we'll see how 2008 goes with the influx of Wii software.

 You include games for the PS3 that won't get released till next year and yet you leave a minimum of 2 huge Wii games off your list...  Wii Fit hits in Japan this year and in Q1 everywhere else next year.  Mario Kart is also on tap for Q1.  I think you fail to see the momentum here.  The DS was slow until the Mario Kart hype began, once that started things went nuts and as we know the DS is where it's at today.  Without Mario Kart, NSMB and the DS Lite the DS would have continued to struggle and it may have ended up selling far less then the PSP.  Nintendo brought the first party games to get the market share,  they got it... third parties came along with it.  Look at this years TGS...  did you realize Nintendo had the most 3rd party support by a long shot for both the Wii and DS?  Probably not... since the American press centered themselves around 360 and PS3 games...