Is the Wii bubble About to Burst?

[DarkNight_DS]

mrstickball said:
IMO, in the US and Europe, it seems like the Wii has a long way ahead until it'd start slowing down.

Mainly because the X360 and PS3 top-tier games aren't out yet. Halo3 is just the first in a huge slew of games, that could (emphasis on could) steal Wii thunder.

You basically have:

Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Brothers Brawl

vs.

Halo 3
Mass Effect

&

Metal Gear Solid 4
Final Fantasy XIII

+ Non-Wii Multiports:
Grand Theft Auto 4
Call of Duty 4
Rock Band

Now, the question is: can SMG and SSBB continue the Wii trend of uber-sellers, and allow Nintendo to re-capture the inititive in Japan, and restart 70k/wk sales, and hit insane holiday numbers?

I know some argue that "oh, the Wii is just down like every other system is down". True, but only to a point. The Playstation 3 is nowhere near it's lowest, despite few good games out - Bladestorm and HSG5 are the only 2 major games selling right now. So why exactly has the Wii gone from selling 7:1 to just 2:1? If the market was totally in recession, why isn't the ratio keeping in lock? For the PSP vs. DS, it was handily going in the DS's favor until FF:CC released on PSP, creating an anomaly.


As I've been saying for the whole year, I still see the Wii sales cresting in the US and Europe next year, slowly losing marketshare to the PS3 and X360. Remember, there was a time for 3-4 months that Wii sales were beating X360 and PS3 combined rather easily. That's not quite the case anymore. If that trend continued, MS will regain the US per-month lead, and will stay there, as the X360 lineup seems to be more favorable in the US, and the PS3 lineup, in Europe.

IMO, I still see the race being that Sony gets Europe barely, MS gets the US by a decent margin, and the Wii still manages a good lead in Japan. But we'll see how 2008 goes with the influx of Wii software.

 You include games for the PS3 that won't get released till next year and yet you leave a minimum of 2 huge Wii games off your list...  Wii Fit hits in Japan this year and in Q1 everywhere else next year.  Mario Kart is also on tap for Q1.  I think you fail to see the momentum here.  The DS was slow until the Mario Kart hype began, once that started things went nuts and as we know the DS is where it's at today.  Without Mario Kart, NSMB and the DS Lite the DS would have continued to struggle and it may have ended up selling far less then the PSP.  Nintendo brought the first party games to get the market share,  they got it... third parties came along with it.  Look at this years TGS...  did you realize Nintendo had the most 3rd party support by a long shot for both the Wii and DS?  Probably not... since the American press centered themselves around 360 and PS3 games...