Is the Wii bubble About to Burst?

[Garcian Smith]

The Wii isn't in any trouble, and the "Wii bubble" is a myth besides. The "trend" (note: not really a trend) we're seeing is the result of circumstance.

The 360 just saw the release of an AA title (Bioshock) combined with a price drop, both of which are driving sales. The PS3's two big releases of the month (Heavenly Sword and Warhawk) also boosted sales a little for that console. However, the Wii has nothing but MP3, an AA title to be sure, but one which was underhyped and barely advertised, at least compared to Bioshock, Heavenly Sword, and Warhawk.

Then, of course, we have Halo 3, which is going to take everyone by storm for a few weeks, at least in America. People will trumpet it as the beginning of the 360's saving grace, but in reality it's the only 360 exclusive that has any appeal to casuals this holiday season. (And even then, it really only appeals to the teenage-twentysomething group of casuals.) Mass Effect won't sell big to anybody but people who already own a 360. It doesn't have the franchise hype that the KotoR games did, so I expect it to sell about as well as Jade Empire; that is to say, decently well, but not enough to make it a system-seller. Either way, Nintendo's one-two-three punch of SMG, SSBB, and Wii Fit will take some time to come out, but it will help the Wii dethrone Halo 3's lead.

As for the PS3, that system is basically dead in the water until '08 when its system sellers (FFXIII and MGS4) come out. By then, however, I expect it to be too late; those two games will sell some systems, but with DQ9 on the DS and MGS not as big of a franchise as it was when MGS2 sold tons of PS2's, they won't be the system's saviors. The console wars are usually, for the most part, decided in the first year of sales, and the PS3 is currently in a distant third. Sorry, Sony fans.

So, in short, the Wii is hardly in trouble. We're just seeing a bit of rapids before the long, long stretch of smooth sailing.